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Udinese crestUdinese
v
Cagliari crestCagliari

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 14:00

Udinese v Cagliari Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 20:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Udinese face Cagliari in Serie A on Sat 19 Sep, 14:00. Cagliari have conceded only two goals in four league games, winning three of them by a single-goal margin. Cagliari’s disciplined defence and three wins from four matches contrast with Udinese’s leaky backline, conceding 10 goals in four games.

BT4Y best bet

Cagliari to win

  • At 40/1, Cagliari to win implies roughly 2%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 17%.
  • Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five goals are considered.
  • Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese.
  • Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Cagliari to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Udinese sit 13 in the table, while Cagliari sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 17% for Cagliari to win sits against roughly 2% implied by the current price. Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese. Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five goals are considered.

Model chance vs price17% model chance against roughly 2% implied
Strong positive
Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cagliari Win is the preferred angle because maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five goals are considered. Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese. Udinese have shown enough attacking threat to hurt opponents, but Cagliari have made a habit of squeezing matches into narrow margins.

Main risk

Udinese have shown enough attacking threat to hurt opponents, but Cagliari have made a habit of squeezing matches into narrow margins.

Key Data Signals

Cagliari to win evidence

Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five.

Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese.

Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Cagliari Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Udinese sit 13 in the table, while Cagliari sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Cagliari to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Udinese2
    Avg goals scored
    Cagliari1
    Udinese2.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Cagliari0.5
    Udinese100%
    BTTS rate
    Cagliari25%
    Udinese75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cagliari25%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 29%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Cagliari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Cagliari to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Udinese

    LLWD
    Last 51W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 2L
    14 Sep 2026A Inter3-5
    07 Sep 2026H Lazio1-2
    29 Aug 2026A Monza3-2
    22 Aug 2026H Como1-1

    Cagliari

    WWLW
    Last 53W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 1L
    12 Sep 2026A Atalanta2-1
    07 Sep 2026H Lecce1-0
    30 Aug 2026H Inter0-1
    22 Aug 2026A Parma1-0
    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
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    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Cagliari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    75%Udinese Over 2.5
    25%Cagliari Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Udinese sit at 75% and Cagliari sit at 25% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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