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Udinese crestUdinese
v
Cagliari crestCagliari

Serie A | Sat 19 Sep, 14:00

Udinese v Cagliari Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Udinese face Cagliari in Serie A on Sat 19 Sep, 14:00. Cagliari have conceded only two goals in four league games, winning three of them by a single-goal margin. Cagliari’s disciplined defence and three wins from four matches contrast with Udinese’s leaky backline, conceding 10 goals in four games.

BT4Y best bet

Cagliari to win

  • At 40/1, Cagliari to win implies roughly 2%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 17%.
  • Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five goals are considered.
  • Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese.
  • Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Cagliari to win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Udinese sit 13 in the table, while Cagliari sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 17% for Cagliari to win sits against roughly 2% implied by the current price. Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese. Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five goals are considered.

Model chance vs price17% model chance against roughly 2% implied
Strong positive
Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Cagliari Win is the preferred angle because maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five goals are considered. Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese. Udinese have shown enough attacking threat to hurt opponents, but Cagliari have made a habit of squeezing matches into narrow margins.

Main risk

Udinese have shown enough attacking threat to hurt opponents, but Cagliari have made a habit of squeezing matches into narrow margins.

Key Data Signals

Cagliari to win evidence

Maduka Okoye making seven saves against Inter illustrates how much defensive work was required even before the five.

Cagliari have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for Udinese.

Cagliari have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Cagliari Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Udinese sit 13 in the table, while Cagliari sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Cagliari to win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Udinese2
    Avg goals scored
    Cagliari1
    Udinese2.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Cagliari0.5
    Udinese100%
    BTTS rate
    Cagliari25%
    Udinese75%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Cagliari25%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 29%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Cagliari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 64%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 44%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Cagliari to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Udinese1.75
    Avg corners for
    Cagliari4.75
    Udinese9.5
    Avg total corners
    Cagliari9
    Udinese2.25
    Avg yellow cards
    Cagliari1.25
    Udinese11.25
    Avg shots
    Cagliari12.25
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 55% · edge +9 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Udinese

    LLWD
    Last 51W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 2L
    14 Sep 2026A Inter3-5
    07 Sep 2026H Lazio1-2
    29 Aug 2026A Monza3-2
    22 Aug 2026H Como1-1

    Cagliari

    WWLW
    Last 53W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 0D 1L
    12 Sep 2026A Atalanta2-1
    07 Sep 2026H Lecce1-0
    30 Aug 2026H Inter0-1
    22 Aug 2026A Parma1-0
    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
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    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Cagliari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Udinese wins
    3Draws
    2Cagliari wins
    09 May 2026Cagliari v Udinese0-2
    05 Oct 2025Udinese v Cagliari1-1
    03 May 2025Cagliari v Udinese1-2
    25 Oct 2024Udinese v Cagliari2-0
    18 Feb 2024Udinese v Cagliari1-1
    01 Nov 2023Udinese v Cagliari1-2
    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 44%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Cagliari to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Serie A

    Udinese4
    Played
    Cagliari4
    Udinese2
    Avg goals for
    Cagliari1
    Udinese2.5
    Avg goals against
    Cagliari0.5
    Udinese0
    Clean sheets
    Cagliari2
    Market aligned with main pickCagliari to WinBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
    3.3
    Check odds @ 3.3
    Load more odds for this section
    Cagliari Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Season data supports Cagliari to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Cagliari943012
    13Udinese44112-2
    Udinese sit in position 13, while Cagliari sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Cagliari to win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    75%Udinese Over 2.5
    25%Cagliari Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Udinese sit at 75% and Cagliari sit at 25% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.