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Arsenal crestArsenal
v
Lille crestLille

UEFA Champions League | Tue 13 Oct, 20:00

Arsenal v Lille Stats

Data last updated: Tue 03 Nov 2026, 06:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arsenal face Lille in UEFA Champions League on Tue 13 Oct, 20:00. Arsenal welcome Lille to the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday, 13 October, looking to extend their impressive Champions League winning streak and build on their opening victory over Napoli.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Over 2

  • At 8/15, Over 2 implies roughly 65%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Arsenal and 100% for Lille, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Lille are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Arsenal at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 0% for Arsenal and 100% for Lille show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.
Price warning

Over 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 65% while the model sits nearer 50% (-15.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.2.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 50% for Over 2 sits against roughly 65% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Arsenal and 100% for Lille, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 65% implied
Negative
The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Arsenal and 100%.Visible data support
Positive
Lille are carrying more of the scoring load at 2.Visible data support
Positive
Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over that scoring level is the preferred angle because selection: Over 2.5 Goals. The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Arsenal and 100% for Lille, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Selection: Over 2.5 Goals.

The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Arsenal and 100% for Lille, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Lille are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Arsenal at 1.

BTTS rates of 0% for Arsenal and 100% for Lille show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arsenal1
Avg goals scored
Lille2
Arsenal0
Avg goals conceded
Lille3
Arsenal0%
BTTS rate
Lille100%
Arsenal0%
Over 2.5 goals
Lille100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 64% · edge -13.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Arsenal and 100% for Lille, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 50% vs implied 64% · edge -13.7 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Lille Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Arsenal to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Arsenal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 51%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 16%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Over 2.5 Goals is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Champions League hubArsenal v Lille predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arsenal

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
09 Sep 2026A Napoli1-0

Lille

L
Last 50W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 1L
08 Sep 2026H Real Betis2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 40% vs implied 25% · edge +15 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Lille Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 29%
7
Check odds @ 7
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
Arsenal to WinBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Arsenal Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 16%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
Lille to WinBet365 guide price · model 10%
13
Check odds @ 13
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Arsenal Over 2.5
100%Lille Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Arsenal sit at 0% and Lille sit at 100%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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