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Shakhtar Donetsk and HNK Rijeka meet this Thursday at the Miejski Henryka Reymana in the Europa Conference League, and it’s a matchup that sets two very different domestic profiles against each other. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Tottenham's defensive record is a concern, having conceded 36 goals over 29 matches, and they are particularly weak against the skillful wide players that Villa possess. Conversely, Spurs are strong at attacking set pieces, an area where Villa are notably weak, having struggled to defend high balls consistently. Both teams utilize a risky offside trap which often results in clear chances if timed poorly. Given the pressure on Thomas Frank to attack and Villa's clinical form away from home, goals at both ends are a probable outcome in this knockout tie.
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Villa have shown significantly better form recently, picking up four wins in their last six games, including tough away assignments. Tottenham are reeling from a 3-2 loss at Bournemouth and are missing critical components of their spine, including James Maddison and Dominic Solanke. While Richarlison’s presence ensures Spurs should get on the scoresheet, Villa’s cohesion and ability to exploit Tottenham’s very weak defense against skillful players should see them edge a tight contest. A 2-1 scoreline aligns with Villa's recent 2-1 win in North London and their offensive consistency.
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Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Rijeka Predictions and Best Bets
Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Rijeka — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and example odds to frame how the pricing sees this Europa Conference League tie.
Market pricing leans towards Shakhtar as the most likely winner, with the draw and Rijeka priced as longer outcomes in the 1X2 market.
The shorter correct-score options cluster around tight margins, with 1–1 and narrow Shakhtar wins standing out among the lowest prices.
The 2.5 line is finely balanced, while the 3.5 line is priced to suggest most scenarios stay below four total goals.
These prices frame how the market views early control and reduced downside angles, without needing a high-scoring game to make sense.
- Shakhtar’s home attack has been reliably “on”: they’ve scored in 11 consecutive home games, which matters because it suggests their pressure usually turns into goals, not just territory and near-misses.
- Rijeka’s away defence has shown a recurring leak: they’ve conceded in nine consecutive away matches, a trend that becomes costly against a side averaging 2.07 expected goals and 16.13 shots per league game.
- Shakhtar’s league output is heavyweight: 42 goals in 16 matches (2.63 per game) and only 12 conceded (0.75 per game), a profile consistent with controlling matches through both chance creation and damage limitation.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per League Game
These season-long league averages offer a quick snapshot of how open matches involving Shakhtar Donetsk and HNK Rijeka typically become on the scoreboard.
Their league matches average 3.38 total goals, which fits a side that regularly plays in games with multiple scoring moments.
Rijeka’s Prva HNL average of 2.81 total goals suggests a slightly calmer baseline than Shakhtar’s, even if individual matches can still swing.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets This Season
Clean sheets show how often a team completes the job defensively across a league campaign, turning territory and game control into a shutout.
Ten clean sheets in 16 league games underlines how frequently Shakhtar limit opponents to low scoring output over 90 minutes.
Four clean sheets in 16 league games points to a defence that can be breached, especially when the match turns into repeated phases.
Attacking Reliability: Streaks That Shape Match Feel
Streak-based indicators add context to the narrative: they don’t guarantee anything, but they hint at how regularly each side finds goals or gives them up.
An 11-match home scoring run suggests the hosts regularly create enough to find the net, even when the game-state gets awkward.
Scoring in four straight matches shows Rijeka can land punches of their own, which matters if they can survive long enough to reach their moments.
Will Shakhtar’s home rhythm overwhelm Rijeka’s away resilience in Kraków?
Shakhtar arrive off a thumping 5–0 win over Epitsentr Dunaivtsi on 14 December 2025. That night they started with Kiril Fesyun, Vinicius Tobias, Pedro Henrique, Mykola Matvienko, Valeriy Bondar, Marlon Gomes, Oleg Ocheretko, Dmytro Kryskiv, Pedrinho, Newerton, Kauã Elias. The wider season picture in the Ukrainian Premier League is equally punchy: Shakhtar sit 1st with 42 goals scored and 12 conceded in 16 matches, and their overall record of 10 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss tells you they’ve largely been setting the terms of games rather than reacting to them.
Rijeka’s most recent European outing was a 3–0 win over NK Celje on 11 December 2025, with Martin Zlomislic, Ante Orec, Ante Majstorovic, Stjepan Radeljic, Mladen Devetak, Tiago Dantas, Dejan Petrovic, Amer Gojak, Toni Fruk, Samuele Vignato, Daniel Adu-Adjei named from the start. Domestically, they’re 6th in the Prva HNL with 26 scored and 19 conceded in 16 matches, and an overall record of 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses. That’s a solid mid-table blend: capable of good days, but not always able to make “good days” routine.
The head-to-head angle is simple: there isn’t one. This is the first time these sides have met, and it’s their first meeting in the Conference League too. That novelty matters because there’s no shared history to lean on—no old grudges, no familiar matchup patterns, no obvious “this always happens when these two meet” storyline. Instead, the clues come from how each side has been playing recently, and what their usual game shape tends to produce.
Shakhtar’s numbers paint a team comfortable with the ball and comfortable creating. In the Ukrainian Premier League they average 67% possession, take 16.13 shots per match, and post 2.07 expected goals per game, which is a neat statistical way of saying they consistently engineer chances from good areas rather than relying on chaos alone. Rijeka, by contrast, sit at 51% possession in the Prva HNL, with 15.75 shots per match and 1.75 expected goals per game—still active, still attacking, but typically with less control of territory and rhythm than Shakhtar.
And then there’s the away/home split that shapes the mood going into Thursday. Shakhtar’s home profile is loud: they’ve scored in 11 consecutive home games, and their home league record this season reads 6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss with 3.13 goals scored per home match. Rijeka’s away profile is more of a balancing act: over their Prva HNL away matches they average 0.88 points per game, they’ve managed 1 win in 8 away league games, and they’ve conceded in nine consecutive away matches. The travel version of Rijeka isn’t a write-off—there’s a note that they come into this on two consecutive away games without losing, and overall they’re on six consecutive games without losing with three straight victories—but there’s also a clear warning light about defensive control on the road.
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So, what kind of game does that suggest? One where Shakhtar try to turn the match into repeat waves: possession, pressure, shots, and sustained territory. Rijeka’s challenge is to keep their structure intact for long enough that their own attacking moments—whether through Daniel Adu-Adjei, Toni Fruk, or Samuele Vignato—actually arrive in useful spaces, not just hopeful breaks. Fine lines, basically. The sort of night where a couple of early sequences can decide whether it becomes a siege or a scrap.
Why we Publish Only One Tip
At BettingTips4You we publish one primary pick because it forces discipline. One selection means we have to commit to a clear read of how the match is likely to be played, rather than scattering bets across every narrative that might happen. It’s not about pretending uncertainty doesn’t exist; it’s about being accountable to the most justifiable angle, and letting everything else stay exactly where it belongs—on the cutting-room floor.
Best Bet for Shakhtar Donetsk vs HNK Rijeka
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Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Rationale
Start with what we actually know about personnel: both sides come in off convincing wins, and both have a recent “go-to” XI we’ve seen in action. Shakhtar’s last lineup included Kiril Fesyun, Mykola Matvienko, Valeriy Bondar, Marlon Gomes, Dmytro Kryskiv and Pedrinho, plus Newerton and Kauã Elias in the mix. Rijeka’s last lineup featured Martin Zlomislic, Ante Majstorovic, Stjepan Radeljic, Tiago Dantas, Amer Gojak, Toni Fruk and Daniel Adu-Adjei, among others. With no listed absences or suspensions to reshape the picture, the cleanest assumption-free approach is to treat those teams as representative of how each side is currently leaning.
From there, the tactical story is driven by control versus resistance. Shakhtar’s 67% possession average in the Ukrainian Premier League isn’t just a vanity number; it suggests a team that prefers to build attacks with patience, recycle the ball, and keep opponents pinned. That matters here because Rijeka’s away defensive trend is blunt: they’ve conceded in nine consecutive away games. Conceding regularly on the road becomes especially dangerous when you’re facing a side that repeatedly returns the ball into the final third—because you don’t get to “reset” after one scary moment; you get asked the same question again and again until you crack.
Chance volume points in the same direction. Shakhtar average 16.13 shots per match with 2.07 xG per game in the league, and they’ve turned that into 2.63 goals per match. Those are not the numbers of a team living off set-piece flukes or low-percentage efforts; they’re consistent with a side that sustains pressure and generates repeatable chances. For a match-winner angle, that’s important: you’re not just hoping Shakhtar nick one moment—you’re backing the idea they can create enough of them to get over the line.
Rijeka aren’t coming in empty-handed, though. They score 1.63 goals per match in the Prva HNL, and their recent run includes four consecutive games scoring goals and three straight victories. That’s the part that injects risk into any “simple” home-win logic: if Rijeka can survive long enough to land their own moments, the game can tilt into the messy zone where a favourite’s control doesn’t always translate into the scoreboard.
Still, the away split is hard to ignore. Rijeka’s Prva HNL away record this season is 1 win, 4 draws, 3 losses, and their away points rate sits at 0.88 per game. Shakhtar’s home league output is the opposite tone: 3.13 goals scored per home match, plus that 11-game home scoring run that speaks to reliable attacking production in their own environment. When you’re choosing one tip, you’re looking for the angle most consistent with how the match is likely to breathe—Shakhtar on the front foot, Rijeka absorbing, and the home side generating more of the decisive moments.
There’s also a subtle psychological edge in the recent results: a 5–0 and a 3–0 both tell you confidence is up, but Shakhtar’s wider league dominance—1st place, 42 goals, +30 goal difference—suggests they’re used to being the team with the ball, the territory, and the expectation. In a first-time meeting, that familiarity with driving games can matter.
What could go wrong: Rijeka’s unbeaten streak and three consecutive wins hint at a side finding solutions, not just hanging on. If Shakhtar’s possession becomes sterile—lots of ball, not enough high-quality shots—then one well-timed Rijeka spell can flip the match state. And if Rijeka do score, Shakhtar may need to prove they can win a game that stops being played on their preferred terms.
Correct score lean
A cautious lean, consistent with the match shape above, is Shakhtar Donetsk 2–1 HNK Rijeka.
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