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Wednesday 17th December brings a proper mix: two Ludlow hurdles, a competitive Newbury handicap chase, and a small-field Listed race on Kempton’s Polytrack. The thread running through today is clarity. When the shape of a race is clear, when a horse’s recent profile points one way, and when the conditions are spelled out, you can build a case without pretending anything is certain.
These are win-only selections. They are not promises, just reasoned picks built on the facts available for each contest.
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Sharpened by his return to hurdling, Ballyburn is almost sure to be involved. He holds a perfect three-from-three record at Leopardstown and is unbeaten on yielding ground. While he narrowly lost to Teahupoo at Fairyhouse, his flawless venue record and expected fitness progression support him turning the tables here.
Summary: Sharpened by his return and boasting a 100% course record → Ballyburn
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This six-year-old impressed on his chase and handicap debut at Southwell. He could easily make light of the 8lb rise. While Hecouldbetheone found the ground too soft, The Bluesman faces exposed rivals like Stratagem. His trainer Olly Murphy has a 25% strike rate, and the horse has won 67% at this distance.
Summary: Impressed on chase debut and can defy the weight rise → The Bluesman.
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Conyers Hill brings strong form from two good runs at Cheltenham and a second over this course and distance. He is taken to score in this competitive handicap. Trainer Paul Nolan’s runner faces rivals with vulnerabilities, such as Dancing Jeremy lacking a recent run and Ballybawn Belter remaining a maiden over fences.
Summary: Good Cheltenham form and course proven → Conyers Hill
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A breakthrough win looks very near for this consistent maiden who performed well in both prior chases. Rivals face issues: Pep Talking bled last time, and Flamelco finished remotely at Aintree. Two To Tango offers a reliable profile against opponents with significant questions like recent falls or poor form.
Summary: Consistent maiden ready for a breakthrough win → Two To Tango.
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Ballyburn reverses form with Teahupoo thanks to his 100% course record at Leopardstown and increased sharpness. He combines with Two To Tango, who has performed well in both chase starts and is very near a breakthrough victory against erratic opposition.
- Ballyburn has a 100% win record (3-3) at Leopardstown.
- Teahupoo has a 75% win record (3-4) on the prevailing going.
- The Bluesman has won 67% of his races (2-3) at the 2m4f distance.
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Featured selection 1: Ludlow’s early novice hurdle
Race: 12:13 Ludlow – Tanners Cava EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier) – Un Sens A La Vie
Rationale:
The 12:13 at Ludlow is a 2m novices’ hurdle, run on Good To Soft with 16 runners and nine hurdles. Big fields in novice hurdles can be messy: pace pressure, a crowded run to the first, and plenty of horses still learning the job. That is exactly why it pays to side with a runner who arrives with a straightforward, solid profile and a clear expectation of running to a high level.
Un Sens A La Vie fits that bill. His recent form figures read 11-172. He carries 11-6 with an official rating of 125, and he is priced at 4/5 first show. Those three elements together matter. The form tells you he has been reliably involved, the rating gives a sense of where he sits in the pecking order, and the price says he is expected to deliver.
There is also a specific angle around his recent work that adds weight to the case: his Kempton run has been made to look better by what happened last week. You do not need to dress that up. It simply means the performance has gained extra credit with time, which is often one of the strongest signs you can have in any kind of racing analysis. It is not a guarantee of a repeat, but it is a strong nudge that he ran to a worthwhile level and that level has since been underlined.
He is also asked to defy a penalty. In general terms, a penalty is a consequence of prior success and it tests whether a horse can give weight away while still producing the same standard. Some novices find that awkward, particularly in a field of 16 where minor mistakes or a poor position can cost you at the finish. But the wording around him is confident that he can cope with it, and that confidence is consistent with the rest of what is in front of you: he has been operating in better races recently and now drops into a contest where he is expected to be the class act.
The most obvious threat is Bras d’Or, priced at 4/1 first show. The key detail here is direct and relevant: Bras d’Or was beaten narrowly by Un Sens A La Vie in a point. That does not lock the form in stone, because the switch from point-to-point to hurdling under rules can change everything, but it does establish a previous head-to-head where Un Sens A La Vie came out on top. On top of that, Bras d’Or is described as having a likeable hurdling debut at Cheltenham. Put together, that makes Bras d’Or a serious rival, yet it also strengthens the argument that Un Sens A La Vie has already had his measure.
Caspari is another with obvious appeal at 13/2 first show. He is trained by Nicky Henderson and described as a half-brother to smart Luccia, with the suggestion that he is bred to be useful and is in top hands. That is the classic unexposed danger: a newcomer whose ceiling could be higher than the market has fully priced. Still, there is a difference between promise and proof. With Un Sens A La Vie you already have a settled profile: he has been taking his racing, he has been competing in better company, and he arrives with the expectation of producing.
Unknown Entity, 7/1 first show, brings a different kind of intrigue. He is said to have shown ability in defeat for Willie Mullins, but to have been below par on heavy on hurdle debut. Today is Good To Soft rather than heavy, which is a meaningful change of conditions, but it is not something you can assume will automatically spark a leap forward. What you can say is that his profile includes a dip in performance, while Un Sens A La Vie’s profile reads as steadier and more reliable.
Lower down the field, plenty have questions that make them harder to trust in a race this competitive. Can U Feel It has finished tailed off under rules in an Ascot bumper and a 2m novice at Exeter. Monsun Climate is described as having no obvious claims based on what has been shown across points, a bumper and a maiden. Onehundredneighty has no positives taken from a couple of bumpers and a novice event. Wings On Wheels has offered little in maiden hurdles this season. Those details do not mean any of them cannot improve, but improvement is precisely the thing you are being asked to guess at. In contrast, Un Sens A La Vie is being asked to do what he has already been doing: run to a strong level and be in the thick of it late on.
Not For Passin is an interesting case because the notes include both upside and risk: a Perth bumper winner, but also one who fell when only 100-30 at Huntingdon. That is the kind of horse who can have plenty of ability, yet you are also reminded that jumping can let you down at the worst moment. In a 16-runner novice hurdle, that risk is not theoretical.
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The connections for Un Sens A La Vie also arrive with recent momentum. Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies are 4 from 25 in the last 14 days, and Sam Twiston-Davies is 5 from 35 in the last 14 days. Those are not magic numbers, but they do tell you the stable and rider have been converting chances recently, which is always worth noting when you are siding with a short-priced runner who is expected to do a professional job.
At this point the case is simple. This is not about pretending there is no danger. In a big novice hurdle, there is always danger: a slow jump at the wrong time, getting squeezed in a pocket, or meeting trouble when the pace lifts. But Un Sens A La Vie has the strongest combination of recent form, rating, market strength, and a head-to-head pointer against one of the principal dangers. That is exactly what you want when you are playing win-only in a race with plenty of unknowns.
Best bet: Un Sens A La Vie to win at 12:13 Ludlow
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Ludlow’s mares’ novice hurdle
Race: 1:13 Ludlow – Shuker Build EBF Mares’ “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle (EBF Mares’ NH Novices’ Hurdle Qual’) – Diamonds Galore
Rationale:
The 1:13 at Ludlow is a mares’ novices’ hurdle over 2m5 and a half furlongs, run on Good To Soft with 13 runners and 11 hurdles. It is a Class 4 contest with a winner’s prize of £4,357, and it sets up as a race where the market has a clear leader but the supporting cast looks deep enough to make the favourite work.
Diamonds Galore is the selection. She is 15/2 first show, trained by Nicky Henderson and ridden by James Bowen. Her recent form figures are 623P-2, which is the kind of line that suggests she has been competitive and arrives off a run that matters: a second place last time. In a novice hurdle, that recent placing can be important, because it shows a horse arriving in form rather than needing to find improvement out of nowhere.
The market is headed by Pottersville, whose form reads 1-01 and who is evens first show. That is a strong profile and it is easy to see why she is so prominent. But taking a win view of the race, Diamonds Galore appeals because she sits close enough to the top of the market to be viewed as a proper threat, yet she still offers a price that recognises the race has depth. The betting forecast has her right in the mix at 5/1, alongside Gaelic Saint, which reinforces that she is not an outsider needing everything to fall perfectly.
There is also a small piece of context around the favourite: Pottersville is noted as engaged the following day at 1:40 at Ffos Las. That does not tell you how she will run here, but it is a factual reminder that her schedule includes another possible assignment.
Support for Diamonds Galore is also reinforced by the recent strike-rates of her connections. Nicky Henderson is 6 from 28 in the last 14 days. James Bowen is 7 from 37 in the last 14 days. Those are not reasons on their own, but they do add confidence that the stable is firing well enough to expect a bold show.
This is a staying-ish novice trip with 11 hurdles, so rhythm and efficiency matter. Diamonds Galore’s profile suggests she is capable of producing a solid round and being involved when it matters, and her position in the market says she is expected to be in the argument.
Best bet: Diamonds Galore to win at 1:13 Ludlow
Newbury’s festive handicap chase
Race: 2:33 Newbury – BetVictor Wishes You A Merry Christmas Handicap Chase (GBB Race) – Road To Home
Rationale:
The 2:33 at Newbury is a 2m4f handicap chase on Good To Soft, with nine runners and 16 fences. The winner’s prize is £10,562, and the field has a nice mix of proven chasers, returners, and a couple with something to prove.
Road To Home is the selection at 7/1 first show. The central point in his favour is specific and recent: he kept on well for third on last month’s handicap chase debut at Doncaster. In handicaps, that kind of finishing effort on debut in the sphere is often a strong sign, because it suggests a horse who is learning the game and still finding at the line. He runs here from a rating of 129 carrying 12-0, so there is no hiding place, but there is also a sense that his profile is straightforward: he has had the experience, he has shaped well, and he is expected to back it up.
The market is headed by Knight Of Allen at 11/4 first show. He is described as having been flattered by proximity when second on chase debut but also as one who can improve. That is a fair summary of the type: he is respected, but you are also warned not to take the bare finishing position as the whole story. Road To Home, in contrast, is credited for how he finished his race, which is exactly the sort of detail you want in a chase where the last half mile can find plenty out.
There are other dangers. Fine Casting returned to chasing with a Bangor win last month and remains on a workable mark after a 6lb rise. Lord Baddesley won a small-field course-and-distance event last month and has blinkers tried today. Dont Tell Su is noted as consistent over hurdles but absent since an underwhelming chase debut in March. Peso makes chase and handicap debut and is described as interesting. Walking On Air is described as hard to predict after an absence.
That range of profiles is precisely why Road To Home appeals. He is not the shortest price, but he has a clean recent pointer in the right discipline and arrives with a solid narrative: already tried in a handicap chase, already shaped as though the task suited, and now expected to build on it.
Best bet: Road To Home to win at 2:33 Newbury
Kempton’s Listed Wild Flower Stakes
Race: 6:10 Kempton (AW) Polytrack – Unibet Wild Flower Stakes (Listed Race) – Shader
Rationale:
The 6:10 at Kempton is a Listed race over 1m4f on Standard To Slow, with five runners. Small fields at this level can become tactical, where track comfort and the ability to deliver in this setting can be the difference between winning and placing.
Shader is the selection at 2/1 first show. He is trained by John and Thady Gosden and ridden by Colin Keane. His form figures are 11-312, and there are two standout angles around his suitability to the venue and trip. First, he is 2 from 2 at Kempton. Second, he is 3 from 4 at 1m4f. Those are strong, simple indicators that the track and distance fit him well.
Dubai Honour is 6/4 first show and clearly commands respect. Ancient Wisdom is also prominent at 5/2 first show. Claymore is a bigger price. With only five runners, you are looking for the most reliable positive on offer, and Shader’s course record, combined with his overall record at the distance, makes him a logical win play.
There is also a recent-form boost via the connections. John and Thady Gosden are 4 from 9 in the last 14 days. Colin Keane is 4 from 13 in the last 14 days. That does not decide the race, but it supports the idea that Shader arrives with stable confidence and a rider in good nick.
Best bet: Shader to win at 6:10 Kempton
🧪 Daily Super Double
A sensible double is Un Sens A La Vie at Ludlow and Road To Home at Newbury, pairing a strong favourite expected to cope with a penalty with a handicap chaser who finished well on his first try in this discipline.
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