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Can Everton’s aerial power and left-sided pressure blunt Brentford’s counter-attacking threat at Hill Dickinson Stadium? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Swansea have secured four straight home wins and recently beat West Brom 1-0 at this stadium. The visitors' nine-match away losing streak makes them hard to back.
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This was the exact scoreline when the sides met on New Year's Day. Swansea's defensive stability at home suggests another narrow, low-scoring victory is probable.
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Everton vs Brentford Predictions and Best Bets
Everton vs Brentford — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Everton are narrow favourites on home soil, though Brentford’s unbeaten streak makes them a formidable opponent in the 1X2 market.
Low-scoring patterns for both sides suggest a 1-1 draw or a narrow Everton win are the most statistically consistent outcomes.
Everton’s recent run of four straight Under 2.5 matches strongly influences the pricing in the total goals market.
- Aerial contest written into Everton’s identity: Everton average 21.6 aerials won per Premier League game, with Tarkowski at 3.9 and Keane at 3.6, shaping how direct and physical their attacks can be.
- Similar shot volume, different goal return: Everton average 10.6 Premier League shots per game and have 20 goals in 19 matches, while Brentford average 9.8 shots yet have scored 28 in 19, led by Thiago’s 11.
- Tight scorelines around Everton lately: There have been under 2.5 goals in Everton’s last four Premier League games, a run that points toward matches decided by single moments rather than end-to-end chaos.
Physical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Everton’s direct style relies heavily on winning battles in the air, a key performance indicator for their tactical setup.
This reflects their preference for crosses and long balls, with Tarkowski (3.9) and Keane (3.6) leading the charge.
A lower possession rate highlights their strategy of bypasssing the midfield to reach the final third quickly.
Attacking Reliance: Key Scorer Impact
Brentford’s goal threat is heavily concentrated in their spearhead, Igor Thiago, during their recent unbeaten run.
Thiago’s clinical finishing is the primary outlet for a team that averages 9.8 shots per game.
Brentford avoid speculative efforts, prioritizing high-percentage opportunities in the penalty area.
Ninth-placed Brentford head to Everton’s Hill Dickinson Stadium on Sunday for a Round 20 Premier League meeting that comes with a neat little table twist. The Bees arrive looking to leapfrog the Toffees, with Everton eighth on 28 points and Brentford ninth on 27 after 19 games.
There’s a broader context to Brentford’s trip too. They’re on their longest unbeaten league run under Keith Andrews, and this match is framed as the next test of that mini-era: keep the unbeaten sequence going, but also deal with a specific itch — a three-match winless run at Everton that needs scratching if they’re to preserve a four-game unbeaten spell under their Irish boss.
Everton, meanwhile, have been living in the land of narrow margins lately. Their recent results include a 0-0 at Burnley and a 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest, but also back-to-back home defeats against Arsenal and earlier against Newcastle United. It makes for a familiar Premier League cocktail: a side that can look sturdy and direct one week, then vulnerable the next if the details aren’t right.
This matchup has the feel of two teams trying to win the same five-minute spells. Everton want the game in their preferred channels — early balls, crosses, second balls, territory. Brentford want it broken up — transitions, direct punches through the middle, and ruthlessness when chances land. In other words: don’t be surprised if it swings, even if the scoreline doesn’t.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Everton’s possible starting XI reads like a 4-2-3-1: Jordan Pickford in goal; Nathan Patterson, James Tarkowski, Jake O’Brien and Vitalii Mykolenko across the back; Tim Iroegbunam and James Garner as the double pivot; then Dwight McNeil, Merlin Röhl and Jack Grealish behind Thierno Barry.
That selection hints at a very Everton balance. Tarkowski and O’Brien bring presence at centre-back, Mykolenko offers a natural left-sided lane, and Garner’s numbers this season suggest he’s a genuine organiser as well as a contributor in the final third (two goals, three assists in the league). With Grealish listed in the attacking line, there’s also a clear attempt to add control and combination play to a side whose style is otherwise described in more direct terms.
There are absences noted for Everton: Idrissa Gueye is listed as called up to his national team until 19 January 2026, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Séamus Coleman and Jarrad Branthwaite are all listed with hamstring issues (Branthwaite until 31 January 2026). That matters because Dewsbury-Hall has been a major goal threat from midfield for Everton (four league goals), and Coleman is a right-sided option who often helps manage games. The likely XI, though, still looks like one built to compete physically and play forward quickly.
Brentford’s possible starting lineup also points toward a 4-2-3-1 shape: Caoimhín Kelleher; Michael Kayode, Kristoffer Ajer, Nathan Collins, Rico Henry; Jordan Henderson, Vitaly Janelt; Yehor Yarmolyuk; Keane Lewis-Potter and Igor Thiago (the final forward/attacker name is not shown in the lineup text provided).
Even without that final attacking name, the structure tells you plenty. Thiago is the spearhead — and a prolific one in Brentford colours this league season (11 goals). Kayode and Henry as full-backs suggest legs for up-and-down running, while Henderson and Janelt gives the middle a functional platform: win it, move it, then attack through central lanes. That aligns cleanly with Brentford’s noted style of play: attacking through the middle, long balls, and operating in their own half before springing forward.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Everton are true to type, the early pattern is likely to be direct and territorial. Their style profile leans into long balls, frequent crosses and attempted through balls, plus an emphasis on attacking down the left. With Mykolenko behind McNeil, that left channel is the natural launchpad: get the ball wide, get it forward, and get bodies arriving around the box.
The flip side is that Everton are also tagged as weak at keeping possession. So the match can quickly become a question of control versus chaos. When Everton attacks are clean, the game is played in Brentford’s half and you get a steady stream of deliveries and knockdowns. When they’re not, you gift Brentford the exact scenario they like: turnovers and open grass.
Brentford’s strengths point to a team comfortable living off transitions. They’re rated very strong on counter attacks and strong at finishing chances, and their style suggests they’re happy playing in their own half. That’s a deliberate invitation: let Everton have some territory, then hit them with fast central breaks when the ball turns over.
That creates a fascinating clash in the middle. Everton’s double pivot of Iroegbunam and Garner is likely tasked with two jobs that don’t always cooperate: protect against counters while also feeding the front four quickly. Brentford’s central core, with Henderson and Janelt, will try to make Everton’s attacks feel like hard work, then immediately look for forward runners when they win it.
There’s also a clear matchup zone on the wings, and it leans into Brentford’s listed weakness: defending against attacks down the wings is marked very weak. That plays directly into Everton’s crossing-heavy tendencies. If McNeil and Mykolenko can repeatedly force wide 1v1s and deliver into the box, Everton can turn Brentford’s defensive issue into a constant theme — especially with Barry providing a clear aerial reference point.
But Brentford have answers of their own in the air. They’re strong in aerial duels, and Collins in particular is a defender who racks up those battles. So it may not be enough for Everton to simply cross; they’ll need quality, timing, and second-ball structure around the box. That’s where Grealish’s inclusion becomes interesting. If he can pull play inside at the right moments — receive between lines, shift the angle, then release the ball wide again — Everton can create better crossing positions rather than hopeful ones.
For Brentford, the key is the moment after the regain. Everton are listed as weak at defending against through ball attacks and avoiding individual errors, and those are precisely the cracks counter-attacking sides hunt. With Thiago’s goal output and Brentford’s preference to attack through the middle, expect them to look for quick vertical passes into central corridors rather than slow, wide build-up.
Tempo, then, becomes the story. Everton will want the match to be played at “their” speed — repeat attacks, crosses, duels, territory. Brentford will want to break that rhythm, keep the game in chunks, and punish loose structure in transition.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Everton’s league numbers underline a team that wins different kinds of battles to most sides in the top half. Their Premier League possession sits at 42.6% with a pass completion of 79.2%, which speaks to a more direct approach and fewer long spells of circulating the ball. Yet they also average 21.6 aerials won per league game, a huge clue as to how they compete: duels, clearances turned into attacks, and repeated contests in the air.
That aerial identity runs right through their key individuals. Tarkowski averages 3.9 aerials won per game in the league, Michael Keane 3.6, and Barry 3.3. Even without dressing it up, those numbers suggest Everton are comfortable making the match a series of physical moments — and they’re set up to do it.
Brentford, conversely, are not a high-shot-volume side in league play: 9.8 shots per game, compared to Everton’s 10.6. Yet they’ve scored 28 league goals to Everton’s 20, which matters because it hints at a sharper end product when chances arrive. Thiago’s 11 league goals is the standout, and Kevin Schade’s six adds another clear route to goal from the wider roles in their squad.
The shot profiles also add texture. Everton’s shots are weighted toward the box (67% inside the area), while Brentford are even more box-focused (75% inside). That suggests neither side is built around speculative efforts as Plan A; both want their chances in high-value zones, even if Everton can also be described as a team that takes a lot of shots.
Then there’s the recent scoring pattern around Everton matches. There have been under 2.5 goals in Everton’s last four Premier League games. That matters less as a prediction and more as a hint about game state: Everton have recently played in matches decided by small details — one goal either way, one lapse, one set piece, one counter.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first moment is the first proper transition. If Everton start quickly and push bodies forward, Brentford will be waiting for the first loose touch or forced pass that lets them break through the middle. With Brentford rated very strong on counter attacks and Everton tagged as weak against through balls and individual errors, that one early turnover can set the tone: Everton either learn the lesson and control their spacing, or they spend the next hour glancing over their shoulder.
The second moment is Everton’s left-side pressure. The style notes point to attacking down the left and frequent crossing, and Brentford’s biggest defensive red flag is attacks down the wings. If Everton can repeatedly create wide deliveries and make Barry a constant target, it becomes a game of accumulation. Not every cross has to “work” — the value can be in corners, second balls, and stress.
The third moment is set-piece resistance. Brentford are rated strong at defending set pieces, while Everton’s overall identity leans into aerial dominance. That makes dead-ball situations a real contest rather than a bonus. If Brentford hold firm on first contacts, Everton will need to be sharp on second phases; if Everton win those second phases, Brentford’s defensive shape can get stretched and messy.
What could go wrong with this read? It can all be undone by an early goal. If one side scores quickly, the match may shift away from the expected tug-of-war between Everton territory and Brentford transitions. A lead can make Everton’s “protecting the lead” strength relevant, or it can force them into riskier possession phases where their weaknesses show. Fine margins, one swing moment — and suddenly the night tells a different story.
Best Bet for Everton vs Brentford
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Under 2.5 Goals
The logic for a low-scoring affair at the Hill Dickinson Stadium is anchored in the recent trajectory of both sides and their specific tactical setups. Everton have become specialists in tight, low-margin contests, with each of their last four Premier League fixtures resulting in under 2.5 goals. This run includes a disciplined 2-0 win at Nottingham Forest and a 0-0 stalemate at Burnley, showcasing a defensive resolve that prioritizes structure over expansive play. While the Toffees are dangerous in the air—averaging 21.6 aerial duels won per game—their efficiency in open play is often limited. They currently operate with a possession average of just 42.6% and a pass completion rate of 79.2%, suggesting they are comfortable without the ball and rarely over-commit in a way that would lead to an end-to-end shootout.
Brentford, under the guidance of Keith Andrews, arrive on a four-game unbeaten streak but have recently shown a tendency for parity, having drawn their last match 0-0 against Tottenham. Although Igor Thiago is a major threat with 11 league goals, the Bees often favor a counter-attacking style that requires the opposition to open up. With Everton missing significant creative and goal-scoring outlets—specifically Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who has four goals, and Iliman Ndiaye, who is away on international duty—the home side’s ability to force the pace of the game is diminished.
Furthermore, both teams focus their shooting efforts almost exclusively inside the box—75% for Brentford and 67% for Everton. Against two physically imposing backlines featuring the likes of James Tarkowski and Nathan Collins, high-value chances will be difficult to engineer. When you combine Everton’s lack of available top scorers with Brentford’s disciplined unbeaten form, the evidence points toward a tactical battle where defensive organization triumphs over attacking fluidity.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is an early goal from a set-piece. Both teams are aerially dominant, and if a defender like James Tarkowski or Nathan Collins converts a corner in the opening ten minutes, the game state will change. A lead would force the trailing team to abandon their defensive shape, potentially leading to a more open, transitional game that defies the recent low-scoring trend.
Correct score lean: 1-1
Given the narrow margins defining Everton’s recent results and Brentford’s current four-game unbeaten streak, a 1-1 draw appears the most likely outcome. Everton have struggled for consistency at home, recently suffering defeats to Arsenal and Newcastle, while Brentford have drawn two of their last four league matches. With Everton missing 10 goals’ worth of contributions from Dewsbury-Hall and Ndiaye, and Brentford arriving with a resolute defensive setup, neither side seems equipped to run away with the contest. A single moment of quality from Igor Thiago or a Thierno Barry header is likely to be cancelled out in a shared result.
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