Tennis betting tips: US Open Day 13 betting tips, predictions preview for Saturday’s women’s final Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka

A thrilling contest is expected in New York City on Saturday as Jessica Pegula faces Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open Women’s Singles Final. Below are our tennis betting tips, featuring two picks for this exciting showdown between the American and Belarusian.

Tennis betting tips: US Open Day 13 Predictions for Saturday Women’s Final

Will Experience or Power Dominate in the US Open Final?

• Sabalenka has won 26 of her last 27 Grand Slam matches on hard courts.
• Pegula has won 15 of her last 16 matches during the summer hardcourt swing.
• Sabalenka has claimed five of her seven wins over Pegula in straight sets.

Best Bet

Given Sabalenka’s superior form and dominance on hard courts, the best bet for this final is for Sabalenka to cover the -4.5 games handicap. Her track record against Pegula and recent performances at the US Open make this prediction highly appealing. Pegula, despite her strong season, may find Sabalenka’s aggressive play too much to handle, especially with the added pressure of a Grand Slam final. Here’s why backing Sabalenka on the handicap offers the best value.

Sabalenka has displayed consistency and control throughout this US Open campaign. She’s won 26 of her last 27 matches on hard courts, and her game thrives on the quick surfaces of Flushing Meadows. The combination of a powerful serve and groundstrokes allows her to dominate rallies, pushing her opponents onto the defensive. Sabalenka has won 89% of her service games during this tournament, showcasing her ability to win crucial points and maintain pressure on returners. Pegula, who tends to play a more measured game, may struggle to withstand the relentless pace and power of the Belarusian’s shots.

The head-to-head record between the two players also heavily favours Sabalenka. Out of seven encounters, Sabalenka has won five, with three of those victories coming in straight sets. Notably, in their recent meeting at the Cincinnati final, Sabalenka prevailed 6-3, 7-5, despite Pegula enjoying the ideal conditions for her game. Sabalenka’s ability to adjust and play on her terms regardless of the opponent is a testament to her growing maturity as a player. In this US Open final, where the slower court conditions may even give her more time to dictate play, it’s hard to see how Pegula can break Sabalenka’s rhythm.

Moreover, Sabalenka’s tactical evolution has been noticeable this season. In the past, she has been criticised for her high error count, but the 2023 version of Sabalenka has learned to temper her aggression when necessary. Against Pegula, she will likely focus on dominating from the baseline while minimising unforced errors, a strategy that has paid dividends throughout this tournament. Even in moments of adversity, as seen in her semi-final, Sabalenka’s mental strength has improved significantly. She no longer collapses under pressure as she once did, which suggests she’s well-prepared to handle the heightened stakes of a Grand Slam final.

Pegula, for all her grit and determination, has struggled when facing the top players in crucial moments. While she deserves credit for her semi-final comeback, it’s important to note that Muchova was not at her physical best, allowing Pegula to exploit her opponent’s vulnerability in the latter stages. Pegula’s game plan often relies on counter-punching and forcing errors, but against an opponent like Sabalenka, who can hit through the court with ease, she may find herself on the back foot far too often.

Considering these factors, Sabalenka winning with a -4.5 games handicap seems the most reliable bet. Pegula may start slow, as she did in her semi-final, and against a player as powerful as Sabalenka, that could be a fatal mistake. Sabalenka’s relentless pace and consistency on serve should see her win by a comfortable margin, making the handicap line a solid option for punters.

Additional Prediction

For those seeking a higher-risk, higher-reward option, backing Pegula to win the second set at 9/4 offers an interesting alternative. Despite Sabalenka’s dominance, there are reasons to believe that Pegula could come into her own in the second set, especially if Sabalenka experiences a drop in intensity, as she has in previous matches.

Pegula has shown throughout this tournament that she can recover from a poor start. In her semi-final, she lost the first set 1-6 before gradually finding her rhythm and adjusting to her opponent’s play. Much of this resilience is due to Pegula’s mental fortitude and tactical adaptability. She is adept at reading the game and can shift her strategy mid-match, a trait that could serve her well against a player like Sabalenka, who tends to lose focus at times. If Sabalenka falters, Pegula has the game to capitalise on those mistakes.

One of the key aspects of Pegula’s success has been her ability to grind down opponents through long rallies. While Sabalenka’s aggressive style will put Pegula under pressure, it’s possible that the Belarusian could start to over-hit or commit unforced errors if Pegula manages to stay consistent from the baseline. Pegula’s game is built around forcing errors from her opponents, and if she can extend rallies and force Sabalenka to play one more shot, the momentum could shift in her favour.

Additionally, Pegula will be buoyed by the home crowd. Playing in her first Grand Slam final on American soil, the energy from the stands could spur her on, especially if the match extends into a tight second set. The psychological advantage of playing at home cannot be underestimated, and it could help Pegula find another gear if she manages to hold her own during the early stages.

Sabalenka has also shown vulnerability in second sets during this tournament. In her semi-final against Navarro, Sabalenka looked set to cruise to victory but was momentarily derailed, allowing her opponent to force a tie-breaker. While she ultimately pulled through, the brief lapse shows that Sabalenka can be rattled, especially when things aren’t going entirely her way. If Pegula can stay within touching distance in the first set, there’s every chance she could steal the second and take the match into a decider.

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