Tennis betting tips: US Open Day 12 betting tips, predictions preview for Friday’s men’s semi-finals

Steve Harrington previews Friday’s US Open men’s semi-finals, where Britain’s Jack Draper aims to follow in Sir Andy Murray’s footsteps and make his mark on the Grand Slam stage. Read on for tips and analysis for the two matches which can also play in a double bet.

Tennis betting tips: US Open Day 12 Predictions for Friday Men’s Semi Finals

Will Experience or Energy Prevail in the US Open Semi-Finals?

• Draper has won 95% of his service games, compared to Sinner’s 86% hold rate.
• Fritz holds a commanding 6-1 head-to-head advantage over Tiafoe.
• Sinner has won 28 of 33 net points in his quarter-final victory over Daniil Medvedev.

Best Bet: Jannik Sinner v Jack Draper

The first semi-final features Jannik Sinner, the tournament’s top seed, against the rising British star Jack Draper. Sinner’s dominance in the 2024 season has been marked by a relentless form, with his groundstrokes and improved net game making him a formidable opponent on hard courts. His recent victory over Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals, where he won an impressive 28 out of 33 net points, reflects a player in top form and at the peak of his tactical and physical prowess. Sinner has managed to blend aggressive baseline play with an increasingly reliable presence at the net, which has helped him control points more effectively.

Jack Draper, on the other hand, has had a breakthrough tournament. The young Brit has powered through the US Open without dropping a set, a remarkable feat that has turned heads and established him as a serious contender. Draper’s serve has been one of the most potent weapons in his arsenal, holding 95% of his service games, a statistic that significantly overshadows Sinner’s still respectable 86% hold rate. Draper’s ability to consistently win his service games is critical, as it relieves pressure during his return games and allows him to attack more freely.

Despite Draper’s outstanding form, there are a few concerns. While his serve has been solid, his match against Sinner presents a step up in quality compared to his previous opponents. Draper’s victory over a struggling Alex de Minaur in the quarter-finals was impressive but perhaps not indicative of his ability to match someone of Sinner’s calibre for the duration of an entire match. This is where the tactical nuance comes into play. Sinner has proven himself adaptable in tight matches, and his ability to find solutions after being put on the back foot could play a crucial role here.

US Open Day 12 Double

The bookmakers have Draper at rather long odds (around 9/2) for a reason. While Draper can rely on confidence from his only previous victory over Sinner at Queen’s in 2021, much has changed since then. Both players have developed significantly, but Sinner’s rise to the top of the sport, winning multiple titles and improving his all-around game, makes him the stronger prospect.

One interesting angle to explore is backing Sinner to win after losing the first set. Draper’s serve and early aggression could see him start well, particularly if he can land a high percentage of first serves early on. However, as the match progresses, Sinner’s adaptability, fitness, and superior baseline game could see him turn the tide, making a comeback victory a real possibility.

For those seeking an even more specific prediction, Sinner has a history of being able to grind out results when under pressure. Draper’s serve could mean there’s also a high chance of tie-breaks, making the market for a tie-break to occur during the match an appealing option. If Draper can maintain his early momentum, expect a tightly contested affair in the first set. But, given Sinner’s mental resilience and experience in deep Grand Slam runs, the Italian is well-positioned to rally from behind and book his place in the final.

Additional Prediction: Taylor Fritz v Frances Tiafoe

The second semi-final brings an all-American face-off between Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe, in what could be an electric encounter under the Arthur Ashe lights. Fritz is rightly favoured by the oddsmakers due to his strong form and dominant head-to-head record against Tiafoe, having won six of their previous seven encounters. His powerful baseline game, combined with an effective first serve, has made him one of the standout performers at this year’s US Open. Fritz’s confidence will be sky-high after his impressive victories over top seeds Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud, where his aggressive game plan saw him dictate play.

However, Tiafoe is a player who thrives under pressure, and his performances in this year’s US Open have demonstrated his ability to grind out wins when the odds are stacked against him. Tiafoe’s resilience has been one of the defining aspects of his game. He’s been pushed to the limit in several matches but has found a way to come through, driven by his refusal to let his opponent dominate for long periods. While his head-to-head record against Fritz may not inspire much confidence on paper, Tiafoe’s relentless energy and unpredictable style make him a dangerous underdog, especially in a match of this magnitude.

What could work in Tiafoe’s favour is his ability to serve clutch points when it matters. While Fritz has historically edged their serving battles, Tiafoe has improved in recent years and could look to apply pressure in return games. Moreover, the occasion might just play into Tiafoe’s hands. He has previously reached the semi-finals of a Grand Slam (at the US Open in 2022), and that experience could give him the psychological edge in key moments.

Backing Tiafoe as a higher-odds option makes sense, especially if the match becomes a battle of nerves. His superior experience in high-pressure Slam moments, coupled with his unique ability to change the rhythm of points, could unsettle Fritz enough to make this an even contest. While Fritz has been the stronger of the two on hard courts, this semi-final has all the makings of a potential upset, with Tiafoe capable of riding the home crowd’s support to clinch a surprise victory.

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