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Madrid Masters Betting Tips

Today we have the Madrid Masters final between Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini. Both those two players have qualified for this match on the back of straight wins, and our experts have provided their analysis and tips on who will lift the trophy.

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Madrid Masters Betting Tips 2021 Betting

Madrid Masters Betting Tips | Men’s Tournament – Final Tips

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Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini both looked in great form in their semi-finals wins. We tipped Berrettini correctly as an underdog winner in our tips against Casper Ruud. The Italian became the first player all week to break the Norwegian’s serve in what was a serve-orientated affair.

The two players looked to be dominant in different ways so far this week. Berrettini has dominated on serve with 75% of service points won, while Zverev has excelled on return in quick conditions, with 42% of return points won. Therefore, this final should be a potential clash of styles in which we believe the value is on the Italian. Although Zverev has a slight edge on return, Berrettini has won 4% more service points. If we look over the last 24 month on clay, we can see similar stats, so it is surprising to see Berrettini as such an underdog today.

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Furthermore, Berrettini has won eight matches in a row on clay and has landed a title in Belgrade just a few weeks ago. On the other end, Zverev is coming into this final in rather disappointing form. He was defeated in the last hardcourt tournament in the opening match by Emil Ruusuvuori and lost to David Goffin Ilya Ivashka in clay events after winning only once in each of those two tournaments.

Surely the wins over Nadal and Thiem, who both prefer slower clay conditions, have influenced bookmakers in the price, and in our view, Berrettini looks the obvious value today.


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Madrid Masters Predictions & Tips

Berrettini To Win

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Madrid Masters Betting Tips | Men’s Tournament – Outright Tips

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As for every clay Masters, it is crucial to see what are the likely conditions we will have in Madrid this coming week. From our data, it is fair to say that conditions are likely to be a bit quicker than your average clay tournaments. As a result, we shouldn’t probably read too much into the form of recent weeks. With quicker conditions, the gap between hard courters with strong severs and traditional clay-courters with better returns should be reduced. So, if we compare it to Monte Carlo master, the big-servers here have better opportunities.

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A further thing to notice is that Rafa Nadal doesn’t have an impressive record here. Surely he has done well in the past with four titles in the last 10 appearances, yet his domination has been less remarkable than in other ‘slower’ venues like Monte Carlo and the French Open. We still believe he is the correct strong favourite but nothing that appeals to us. Nadal has had back problems after the Australian Open and was surprisingly beaten by Andrey Rublev in Monte Carlo. He went close to lose in the final against Tsitsipas in Barcelona but managed to lift the trophy there, but again he is not the top Nadal we all know. 

You can get much better value by backing in-form Greek Tsitsipas. As we have seen in Barcelona he has what it takes to challenge the King of Clay, and he wouldn’t mind the quicker conditions as he is a more serve-orientate player. With Novak Djokovic that has withdrawn from the tournament, he has a pretty decent draw and looks a strong favourite to make it all the way to the final, where he might find Nadal, once again. 

If you are looking for longer odds, then our suggestion is Andrey Rublev. The Russian has decent clay data and wouldn’t mind the quicker conditions here, so he can definitely make the latter stages and looks a decent each-way bet or something to cash out if he reaches the semis. 


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Madrid Masters Predictions & Tips

Tsitsipas To Win

£20 bet returns £90 with Bet365

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