Everton vs Brentford Predictions

Everton vs Brentford predictions for this Premier League clash. Fresh off a Merseyside derby win, Everton aims for a third consecutive Premier League victory as they host Brentford at Goodison Park on Saturday evening. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Premier League | Gameweek 35 – Apr 27, 2024 at 5.30pm UK at Goodison Park

Everton vs Brentford Predictions

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Strategic Encounters at Goodison: Everton Aims for Continuity Against a Resilient Brentford

Everton and Brentford are set to clash at Goodison Park this weekend, with both teams riding on waves of optimism fuelled by recent successes. This analysis delves into the dynamics of their upcoming Premier League encounter, exploring tactical setups, key player battles, and potential game deciders.

Tactical Setup and Team Analysis

Everton’s Revival under Dyche

Sean Dyche has instilled a resilient defensive structure at Everton, leading to three consecutive home victories without conceding a goal. This robust defence, paired with strategic counter-attacks, has significantly bolstered their survival bid.

Everton’s recent 2-0 victory over Liverpool highlighted their ability to execute plans flawlessly, focusing on strong defensive setups and quick transitions to attack, utilising the width provided by wingers Dwight McNeil and Jack Harrison.

Brentford’s Away Form Challenge

Conversely, Brentford, despite their mid-table comfort, have struggled for consistency on their travels. Their historic 5-1 victory at Luton showcased their potential, with a balanced attack led by Yoane Wissa and supported by the creative inputs of Bryan Mbeumo and Kevin Schade.

However, their overall away form has been less than stellar, and facing a rejuvenated Everton at Goodison poses a unique challenge.

Key Player Duels

The battle between Everton’s forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Brentford’s backline, particularly Ethan Pinnock, could be pivotal. Calvert-Lewin’s aerial prowess and physicality might trouble a Brentford defence that has been vulnerable away from home.

Meanwhile, Everton’s midfield enforcer, Idrissa Gueye, tasked with disrupting Brentford’s creative hub, particularly Jensen and Norgaard, will be crucial in the midfield tussle.

Match Dynamics and Expected Goals Analysis

Everton’s expected goals (xG) have shown improvement under Dyche’s tenure, especially at home, where they have managed an aggregate score of 5-0 in the last three matches. Brentford’s xG also reflects their attacking capabilities, but their defensive xG suggests vulnerability, especially in away settings.

This match could likely see Everton exploiting Brentford’s defensive gaps while attempting to maintain their solid defensive record.

Expected Lineups and Their Impact

Everton’s Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Pickford
• Defence: Godfrey, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Young
• Midfield: Harrison, Garner, Onana, McNeil
• Attack: Doucoure, Calvert-Lewin

Everton’s setup suggests a balanced approach with a focus on robust defence and dynamic attacks from the wings, where McNeil and Harrison will be pivotal.

Brentford’s Lineup:

• Goalkeeper: Flekken
• Defence: Ajer, Collins, Pinnock, Reguilon
• Midfield: Jensen, Norgaard, Janelt
• Attack: Mbeumo, Wissa, Lewis-Potter

Brentford’s formation indicates a strategy to control the midfield and exploit the wings, aiming to challenge Everton’s flanks with the pace and creativity of Mbeumo and Lewis-Potter.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Everton’s Defensive Resilience and Direct Play

Under Sean Dyche, Everton have exhibited a marked resilience defensively, managing to secure vital clean sheets in their recent home fixtures. This defensive solidity is primarily thanks to a compact and disciplined backline, led by James Tarkowski and ably supported by young Jarrad Branthwaite, whose performances have been commendable. The team typically sets up to absorb pressure and exploit opportunities through quick transitions, heavily relying on the physical presence and aerial ability of Dominic Calvert-Lewin up front.

In attack, Everton tends to employ a direct style of play, focusing on getting the ball forward quickly, often utilising the width provided by wingers Dwight McNeil and Jack Harrison. This approach is evident in their use of long balls from deep areas, aiming to bypass the midfield. This method has its merits, particularly in exploiting Calvert-Lewin’s strengths, but it also highlights a potential over-reliance on aerial duels and second-ball scenarios.

Brentford’s Fluid Attacking and Vulnerable Defence

Thomas Frank’s Brentford presents a more fluid attacking setup, favouring a possession-based approach that allows for creativity and movement from the likes of Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa. Wissa’s recent performances, including a brace against Luton, underscore his importance to Brentford’s attack, providing both goals and essential dynamism.

However, defensively, Brentford has shown vulnerability, particularly in away games where they often struggle to maintain their defensive shape. This aspect was brutally exposed in their heavy defeats on the road, suggesting a discrepancy between their home form and away performances. Their defensive woes are compounded by a lack of pace at the back, which could be exploited by Everton’s direct attacking style.

Managerial Impact and Style of Play

Sean Dyche’s Pragmatism vs. Thomas Frank’s Fluidity

Dyche’s impact at Everton has been primarily about instilling a tough, no-nonsense attitude, focusing on defensive organisation and work ethic. While this has led to a reduction in goals conceded, it has also resulted in a style of play that some may find unadventurous or overly cautious.

Conversely, Thomas Frank has cultivated a team that is versatile and adaptable in attack but sometimes lacks the strategic rigour in defence. Frank’s philosophy ensures Brentford is often exciting to watch, but this sometimes comes at the cost of defensive solidity, particularly against teams that excel in quick counter-attacks or set-pieces.

Expected Goals and Performance Metrics

Analysing the expected goals (xG), Everton shows a conservative figure, which correlates with their lower goal output but higher defensive metrics. Brentford, with a slightly higher xG in comparison, demonstrates their effectiveness in creating scoring opportunities, yet their higher goals conceded tally reveals the defensive costs of their expansive play.

Controversial Perspective: A Critique of Thomas Frank

While Thomas Frank’s attacking style merits applause, it is his strategic naivety that often undercuts Brentford’s potential. The Bees’ manager could be criticised for his persistent adherence to an attacking doctrine without adequately addressing his team’s defensive frailties.

This approach might entertain but doesn’t always translate to effectiveness, particularly in challenging away fixtures. His reluctance to adapt tactically in different scenarios might be seen as a significant limitation, especially compared to Dyche’s ability to mould his team according to the demands of the Premier League survival.

Suggestions for Improvement

Everton could benefit from integrating more creativity in midfield, reducing their reliance on direct play to provide a more balanced attack. Incorporating more technical midfielders or adjusting the roles of existing players like Abdoulaye Doucouré to engage more in build-up play could enhance their tactical flexibility.

For Brentford, a focus on recruiting or developing faster, more positionally aware defenders could help mitigate the issues seen in their defensive line. Additionally, implementing a more structured approach to transitioning from attack to defence could prevent them from being caught out during quick counter-attacks by opponents.

Predictions and Betting Angles

Best Bet: Everton to Win

Everton’s recent resurgence under Sean Dyche, especially at Goodison Park, makes them strong contenders to secure a win against Brentford. Their robust defensive strategies and effective counter-attacking play have seen them secure three consecutive home victories without conceding a goal.

Brentford, on the other hand, although improved, still struggle with inconsistency away from home, having lost nine of their last 12 away matches in the league. Given these factors, and Everton’s current momentum, a bet on Everton to secure a victory seems well-founded.

Correct Score Prediction: Everton 2-1 Brentford

This prediction aligns with Everton’s improved offensive capabilities under Dyche, combined with their defensive solidity at home. Although Brentford has been performing better recently, their defensive vulnerabilities, especially in away games, are likely to be exploited by Everton.

The scoreline of 2-1 reflects a competitive match where both teams are expected to score, but with Everton leveraging their home advantage to clinch a narrow victory, maintaining their streak of strong performances at Goodison Park.

Goalscorer Prediction: Dominic Calvert-Lewin to Score

Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s physical presence and proficiency in aerial duels make him a constant threat in the attacking third, particularly against a Brentford defence that has shown susceptibility in handling physically dominant strikers.

Having scored crucial goals in recent fixtures, including the Merseyside derby, Calvert-Lewin is likely to be Everton’s focal point in attack, making him a prime candidate to score at any moment in the game.

Corner Prediction: More Corners for Everton, Total Over 9.5

Everton’s tactical approach under Dyche involves substantial width play, often leading to crosses and resultant corners. Given Brentford’s style of play, which also tends to yield corners, this match is expected to be dynamic, with numerous set-pieces.

Predicting more corners for Everton aligns with their home game strategy of attacking the flanks, while a total of over 9.5 corners takes into account both teams’ tendencies to push forward and create chances from wide areas.

Shot on Target Prediction: Dwight McNeil to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Dwight McNeil, known for his direct runs and ability to cut inside and shoot, is expected to be among the key offensive players for Everton. His role on the wing, coupled with his tendency to take on defenders and attempt shots, makes him a likely player to achieve one or more shots on target. This prediction is supported by McNeil’s recent form and his integral role in Dyche’s attacking setup.

Yellow Card Prediction: Jarrad Branthwaite to Receive a Yellow Card

Considering the physical nature of the match and Branthwaite’s role in Everton’s defence, he is likely to be involved in several critical defensive interventions. His aggressive style of play and the intense nature of Premier League matches, especially in contests that could sway either team’s season, make him a likely candidate for receiving a yellow card during the match.

Assist Prediction: Bryan Mbeumo to Deliver an Assist

Bryan Mbeumo has been instrumental in Brentford’s attack, showcasing his ability to create opportunities for his teammates. His vision and crossing ability make him particularly effective in setting up goals. Predicting Mbeumo to deliver an assist takes into account his recent form, including goals and assists, and his role in linking up play in Brentford’s attacking moves.

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