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Zaglebie Lubin crestZaglebie Lubin
v
Wisla Plock crestWisla Plock

Ekstraklasa | Sun 20 Sep, 13:45

Zaglebie Lubin v Wisla Plock Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Zaglebie Lubin hosts Wisla Plock in an Ekstraklasa clash where home advantage and recent momentum favor Lubin. Zaglebie Lubin sits fifth with 15 points, showing solid defensive form conceding only 0.8 goals per game, while Wisla Plock struggles at 13th with 8 points and a leaky defense allowing 2.2 goals per match. Lubin's tactical discipline and home contrast with Wisla Plock's inconsistency and defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a contest where Lubin's control and sharper execution could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Zaglebie Lubin to Win

  • Zaglebie Lubin ranks 5th with 15 points, Wisla Plock 13th with 8 points
  • Lubin concedes 0.8 goals per game versus Wisla Plock's 2.2 goals against
  • Lubin's recent form yields 9 points, Wisla Plock only 4
  • Wisla Plock averages 18.2 shots per game but concedes defensively
  • Lubin's home advantage and defensive solidity underpin in a home win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 72.6% chance for Zaglebie Lubin to win, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive stability. Lubin's ability to limit opponents to fewer goals per game contrasts with Wisla Plock's defensive struggles. Despite Wisla Plock's higher shot volume, their defensive frailties and lower league standing reduce their winning probability. The price at 2.25 offers significant value given the model's implied chance of 44.4%, making Lubin a compelling pick backed by both form and defensive metrics.

Recent formLubin 9 points vs Wisla Plock 4
Strong positive
Defensive recordLubin concedes 0.8 goals/game, Wisla Plock 2.2
Strong positive
League positionLubin 5th, Wisla Plock 13th
Positive
Shot volumeWisla Plock higher shots but weaker defense
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Zaglebie Lubin's tactical discipline and home form provide a solid foundation for victory against a Wisla Plock side that struggles defensively despite creating chances. Lubin's ability to control the game and limit goals conceded aligns with the data, making the home win a logical and well-supported outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive control underpinning Lubin's advantage

“Lubin's defensive organization and home advantage create a clear edge in this matchup, especially against a Wisla Plock side that concedes too many chances despite their attacking efforts.”

Key Data Signals

Zaglebie Lubin to Win evidence

Zaglebie Lubin ranks 5th with 15 points, Wisla Plock 13th with 8 points

Lubin concedes 0.8 goals per game versus Wisla Plock's 2.2 goals against

Lubin's recent form yields 9 points, Wisla Plock only 4

Wisla Plock averages 18.2 shots per game but concedes defensively

What To Watch In The Data

Zaglebie Lubin to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Lubin's lower goals conceded and Wisla Plock's defensive issues indicate that while goals are possible, the tempo and defensive control favor a match with fewer goals, aligning with the Over 2.5 goals trend panel's nuanced outlook.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Zaglebie Lubin3
Avg corners for
Wisla Plock7.6
Zaglebie Lubin9.4
Avg total corners
Wisla Plock10.6
Zaglebie Lubin3
Avg yellow cards
Wisla Plock1.4
Zaglebie Lubin13.4
Avg shots
Wisla Plock18.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 56% · edge +8.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Wisla Plock averages more corners (7.6) and shots (18.2) per game, indicating offensive pressure, but Lubin's disciplined defense and fewer yellow cards (3 per game) suggest controlled aggression. The contrast in fouling and set-piece frequency points to Lubin managing the game's tempo and limiting Wisla Plock's chances from wide areas and set pieces.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Zaglebie Lubin1.2
Avg goals scored
Wisla Plock1
Zaglebie Lubin0.8
Avg goals conceded
Wisla Plock2.2
Zaglebie Lubin60%
BTTS rate
Wisla Plock60%
Zaglebie Lubin40%
Over 2.5 goals
Wisla Plock60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 59% · edge +7.9 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams to score is unlikely given Lubin's strong defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game and Wisla Plock's defensive frailty. The controlled goals context suggests a low-scoring game with Lubin likely to keep a clean sheet or limit Wisla Plock's scoring opportunities effectively.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The current of 2.25 for Zaglebie Lubin to win imply a 44.4% chance, significantly lower than the model's 72.6% probability, indicating strong value. This pricing reflects market caution but overlooks Lubin's defensive solidity and superior form, making the home win a price-sensitive value bet worthy of consideration.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Zaglebie Lubin

WWDDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 1L
15 Sep 2026A Raków Częstochowa3-2
12 Sep 2026H GKS Katowice2-1
07 Sep 2026A Wieczysta Kraków1-1
29 Aug 2026H Pogon Szczecin0-0
23 Aug 2026A Radomiak Radom0-0

Wisla Plock

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
13 Sep 2026H Cracovia Krakow3-1
07 Sep 2026A Pogon Szczecin1-1
28 Aug 2026H Korona Kielce0-2
23 Aug 2026A GKS Katowice0-5
07 Aug 2026A Wisla Krakow1-2
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Zaglebie Lubin's recent form is strong with 9 points from the last matches, reflecting consistent performances and defensive resilience. Wisla Plock's 4 points and higher goals conceded highlight their struggles to maintain form and defensive stability, reinforcing Lubin's advantage in momentum and .
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Zaglebie Lubin wins
1Draws
6Wisla Plock wins
02 Mar 2026Zaglebie Lubin v Wisla Plock2-0
25 Aug 2025Wisla Plock v Zaglebie Lubin2-1
08 Apr 2023Wisla Plock v Zaglebie Lubin2-0
18 Sep 2022Zaglebie Lubin v Wisla Plock2-1
18 Feb 2022Zaglebie Lubin v Wisla Plock3-1
20 Aug 2021Wisla Plock v Zaglebie Lubin4-0
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The ten previous encounters average 2.7 goals per game, showing a moderately open scoring pattern. However, recent defensive improvements by Lubin and Wisla Plock's defensive inconsistencies suggest that past results offer limited predictive power, and current form and tactical setups should guide expectations.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin8
Played
Wisla Plock7
Zaglebie Lubin1.4
Avg goals for
Wisla Plock1
Zaglebie Lubin1
Avg goals against
Wisla Plock1.7
Zaglebie Lubin3
Clean sheets
Wisla Plock1
Market aligned with main pickZaglebie Lubin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over the season, Lubin's attack averages 1.2 goals per game with a solid defense conceding 0.8, while Wisla Plock scores slightly less but concedes significantly more at 2.2 goals per match. This imbalance underlines Lubin's ability to control matches and limit opposition scoring, supporting the home win selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Zaglebie Lubin1584313
13Wisla Plock87223-5
Lubin's 5th place standing with 15 points contrasts with Wisla Plock's 13th and 8 points, indicating a clear gulf in consistency and quality. While standings alone don't decide outcomes, Lubin's higher rank reflects better overall performance and stability, adding weight to their home win prospects.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Zaglebie Lubin Over 2.5
60%Wisla Plock Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, suggesting moderate scoring. Lubin's lower goals conceded and Wisla Plock's defensive issues indicate that while goals are possible, the tempo and defensive control favor a match with fewer goals, aligning with the Over 2.5 goals trend panel's nuanced outlook.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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