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Raków Częstochowa crestRaków Częstochowa

Ekstraklasa | Sat 19 Sep, 13:45

Korona Kielce v Raków Częstochowa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Korona Kielce face Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa on Sat 19 Sep, 13:45. Korona Kielce come in with 8 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while Raków Częstochowa have 3 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Korona Kielce to Win

  • At 2.1, Korona Kielce to Win implies roughly 48%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 63%.
  • Korona Kielce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Raków Częstochowa.
  • Korona Kielce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Korona Kielce to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Korona Kielce sit 9 in the table, while Raków Częstochowa sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 63% for Korona Kielce to Win sits against roughly 48% implied by the current price. Korona Kielce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Raków Częstochowa.

Model chance vs price63% model chance against roughly 48% implied
Strong positive
Korona Kielce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8.Visible data support
Positive
Korona Kielce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Korona Kielce Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Korona Kielce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Raków Częstochowa. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Korona Kielce to Win evidence

Korona Kielce have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Raków Częstochowa.

Korona Kielce have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Korona Kielce Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Korona Kielce sit 9 in the table, while Raków Częstochowa sit 18, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Korona Kielce to Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Korona Kielce3.6
    Avg corners for
    Raków Częstochowa5.5
    Korona Kielce9.4
    Avg total corners
    Raków Częstochowa9.5
    Korona Kielce1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Raków Częstochowa2.25
    Korona Kielce10.8
    Avg shots
    Raków Częstochowa15.5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Korona Kielce1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Raków Częstochowa1.4
    Korona Kielce1
    Avg goals conceded
    Raków Częstochowa2.4
    Korona Kielce60%
    BTTS rate
    Raków Częstochowa80%
    Korona Kielce20%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Raków Częstochowa80%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickKorona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Korona Kielce to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Korona Kielce

    LWDWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 2L
    15 Sep 2026H Gornik Zabrze0-2
    12 Sep 2026A Slask Wroclaw2-1
    05 Sep 2026H Wisla Krakow1-1
    28 Aug 2026A Wisla Plock2-0
    22 Aug 2026H Motor Lublin1-1

    Raków Częstochowa

    LWLLL
    Last 51W 0D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 0D 7L
    15 Sep 2026H Zaglebie Lubin2-3
    11 Sep 2026H Motor Lublin2-1
    06 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan0-1
    03 Sep 2026H Gornik Zabrze1-2
    30 Aug 2026H Jagiellonia2-5
    Market aligned with main pickKorona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Korona Kielce wins
    2Draws
    7Raków Częstochowa wins
    08 May 2026Raków Częstochowa v Korona Kielce2-0
    09 Nov 2025Korona Kielce v Raków Częstochowa1-4
    17 May 2025Korona Kielce v Raków Częstochowa1-1
    24 Nov 2024Raków Częstochowa v Korona Kielce1-1
    13 Mar 2024Korona Kielce v Raków Częstochowa0-2
    17 Dec 2023Raków Częstochowa v Korona Kielce1-0
    Market aligned with main pickKorona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Korona Kielce to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Ekstraklasa

    Korona Kielce8
    Played
    Raków Częstochowa8
    Korona Kielce1.1
    Avg goals for
    Raków Częstochowa1.3
    Korona Kielce1
    Avg goals against
    Raków Częstochowa2.3
    Korona Kielce1
    Clean sheets
    Raków Częstochowa0
    Market aligned with main pickKorona Kielce to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Korona Kielce Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    1.65
    Check odds @ 1.65
    Season data supports Korona Kielce to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    9Korona Kielce1283321
    18Raków Częstochowa38107-8
    Korona Kielce sit in position 9, while Raków Częstochowa sit in position 18, so table pressure belongs in the Korona Kielce to Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    20%Korona Kielce Over 2.5
    80%Raków Częstochowa Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Korona Kielce sit at 20% and Raków Częstochowa sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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