Piast Gliwice

Pogon Szczecin

Ekstraklasa | Sun 20 Sep, 11:15

Piast Gliwice v Pogon Szczecin Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both sides have shown moderate scoring output and solid defensive organization. Piast Gliwice ranks 6th with 13 points, while Pogon Szczecin sits just behind in 7th with 12 points, reflecting a closely contested fixture. Both teams have averaged just over one goal conceded per game, and their recent matches suggest a tactical approach favoring defensive solidity over open attacking play. This encounter is likely to be a tight, low-scoring affair with neither side pushing aggressively for a high-scoring outcome.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin both have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards lower scoring games.
Both teams concede around one goal per match, supporting a defensive game plan.
Average shots on target are moderate, with Piast Gliwice at 5 and Pogon Szczecin at 6 per game, suggesting limited clear-cut chances.
Head-to-head average goals over last 10 meetings is 1.6, reinforcing a low-scoring trend.
Piast Gliwice’s recent form includes 10 points with a goals-for average of 2.2, while Pogon Szczecin has 9 points and 1.6 goals per game, both reflecting controlled attacking output.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Under 2.5 Goals with a 65.6% probability, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating strong value. Both teams exhibit disciplined defensive records, conceding around one goal per game, and their head-to-head history shows an average of just 1.6 goals per match. Moderate shot volumes and a cautious tactical approach further support a low-scoring outcome. The data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in this selection as a value bet with standard staking recommended.

Model Probability65.6% chance for Under 2.5 Goals

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance47.6%

Neutral

Head-to-Head Goals Average1.6 goals per game

Positive

Defensive RecordsAround 1 goal conceded per match each

Strong positive

Shot VolumesModerate shots on target (5 and 6 per game)

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given both teams' defensive discipline and moderate attacking threat. Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin have shown a tendency to keep matches tight, with limited goal-scoring opportunities created. The data supports a cautious game with few goals, making the low-scoring bet a tactically and statistically sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and statistical rationale for Under 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two sides that prioritize defensive structure and measured attacking play, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation. The head-to-head history and recent form underline a pattern of controlled, low-scoring matches.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams concede around one goal per match, supporting a defensive game plan.

Average shots on target are moderate, with Piast Gliwice at 5 and Pogon Szczecin at 6 per game, suggesting limited clear-cut chances.

Head-to-head average goals over last 10 meetings is 1.6, reinforcing a low-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last 10 matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 1.6, indicating a consistent trend of low-scoring encounters.
Both sides have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season, suggesting that while higher scoring is possible, the prevailing tempo and defensive setups tend to limit goal totals in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Piast Gliwice2.2

Avg goals scored

Pogon Szczecin1.6

Piast Gliwice1

Avg goals conceded

Pogon Szczecin0.8

Piast Gliwice40%

BTTS rate

Pogon Szczecin60%

Piast Gliwice40%

Over 2.5 goals

Pogon Szczecin40%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 41%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Both teams average just over one goal conceded per game and have a modest goals-for rate, with Piast Gliwice at 2.2 and Pogon Szczecin at 1.6. Their head-to-head meetings average 1.6 goals, indicating a tendency for matches to stay under 2.5 goals. BTTS rates are moderate, with Pogon Szczecin slightly higher at 60%, but overall goal production points to a low-scoring encounter.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Piast Gliwice

WWWDL

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 1D 3L

14 Sep 2026A Radomiak Radom2-0

04 Sep 2026H GKS Katowice3-0

29 Aug 2026A Motor Lublin2-0

22 Aug 2026H Legia Warszawa1-1

15 Aug 2026H Wieczysta Kraków3-4

Pogon Szczecin

WDDDW

Last 52W 3D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 3D 1L

13 Sep 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-0

07 Sep 2026H Wisla Plock1-1

29 Aug 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-0

23 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow2-2

08 Aug 2026H Motor Lublin3-1

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 74% · edge +4.8 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

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Piast Gliwice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Piast Gliwice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Pogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 43%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Recent form data shows Piast Gliwice with 10 points and Pogon Szczecin with 9 points from their last matches, both teams scoring at modest rates and maintaining solid defensive records. Their over 2.5 goals rate stands at 40%, indicating a preference for matches with fewer goals, consistent with the Under 2.5 Goals selection.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
6	Piast Gliwice	13	8	4	1	3	2
7	Pogon Szczecin	12	7	3	3	1	5

Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin occupy mid-table positions (6th and 7th respectively) with close points totals, suggesting a competitive fixture with neither side under extreme pressure to force open play. This context favors a cautious approach, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring game and supporting the Under 2.5 Goals selection.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionPiast Gliwice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.5 pts

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Piast Gliwice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Pogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 43%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively with around 2.1, reflecting a significant as the model estimates a 65.6% chance versus a 47.6% implied probability. This price sensitivity suggests a strong betting angle without requiring movement to justify the selection.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Piast Gliwice4.6

Avg corners for

Pogon Szczecin3.4

Piast Gliwice11.6

Avg total corners

Pogon Szczecin7.2

Piast Gliwice1.4

Avg yellow cards

Pogon Szczecin2.2

Piast Gliwice13.8

Avg shots

Pogon Szczecin15.6

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 50% · edge +11.9 pts

Check odds @ 2

Shot volumes are moderate, with Piast Gliwice averaging 13.25 shots and 5 on target, while Pogon Szczecin averages 17.5 shots and 6 on target. Corner counts are balanced and low, suggesting neither side dominates territory extensively. Discipline is fairly controlled, with yellow cards averaging below 2 per team, indicating a match likely to be decided by tactical play rather than fouls or set-piece chaos.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Piast Gliwice wins

3Draws

4Pogon Szczecin wins

13 Apr 2026Piast Gliwice v Pogon Szczecin0-2

03 Oct 2025Pogon Szczecin v Piast Gliwice2-1

13 Apr 2025Piast Gliwice v Pogon Szczecin2-1

26 Feb 2025Pogon Szczecin v Piast Gliwice2-0

06 Oct 2024Pogon Szczecin v Piast Gliwice1-0

26 Jun 2024Piast Gliwice v Pogon Szczecin1-0

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 62% · edge +1.6 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Piast Gliwice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Pogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

The head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings shows an average of 1.6 goals per game, reflecting a pattern of tight, low-scoring contests. This historical trend supports the Under 2.5 Goals pick, as neither team has consistently broken down the other's defense in recent encounters.

Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Piast Gliwice8

Played

Pogon Szczecin7

Piast Gliwice1.9

Avg goals for

Pogon Szczecin1.4

Piast Gliwice1.6

Avg goals against

Pogon Szczecin0.7

Piast Gliwice3

Clean sheets

Pogon Szczecin3

Best odds for this sectionPiast Gliwice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.5 pts

1.82

Check odds @ 1.82

Load more odds for this section

Piast Gliwice to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Pogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%

2.8

Check odds @ 2.8

Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 43%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Season-long statistics reveal both teams concede around one goal per game and have moderate attacking output, with Piast Gliwice scoring 2.2 goals per match and Pogon Szczecin 1.6. These balanced offensive and defensive profiles support a low-scoring match environment, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals market choice.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Piast Gliwice Over 2.5

40%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5

1.6H2H avg goals

Over the last 10 matches between these teams, the average goals scored is 1.6, indicating a consistent trend of low-scoring encounters. Both sides have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals this season, suggesting that while higher scoring is possible, the prevailing tempo and defensive setups tend to limit goal totals in this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Piast Gliwice v Pogon Szczecin Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Piast Gliwice

Pogon Szczecin

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Football Stats Hub

Piast Gliwice v Pogon Szczecin Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Piast Gliwice

Pogon Szczecin

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