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Zaglebie Lubin crestZaglebie Lubin
v
Pogon Szczecin crestPogon Szczecin

Ekstraklasa | Sat 29 Aug, 19:15

Zaglebie Lubin v Pogon Szczecin Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin meet in an Ekstraklasa clash where both sides have started the season evenly, each accumulating seven points. The teams rank closely in the table, fifth and sixth respectively, reflecting a balanced contest ahead. Both squads have shown attacking intent, averaging over one goal per game, and their matches often feature open play and goal-scoring opportunities. This fixture promises a competitive encounter with offensive emphasis from both sides, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring game under the lights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average around 1.5 goals scored per game this season, indicating attacking potency.
  • Recent matches for both sides have a 50% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, showing a tendency for open games.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 2.8 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Pogon Szczecin averages more shots on target (5.75) than Zaglebie Lubin (2.75), suggesting offensive pressure.
  • Both teams maintain similar BTTS rates at 50%, highlighting mutual goal threats.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a slight edge for Over 2.5 Goals with a 53.5% chance, supported by balanced attacking stats from both teams and a history of goal-filled matches. Both sides demonstrate offensive willingness, reflected in shot volumes and goal averages, while their head-to-head record shows a consistent pattern of multiple goals. The price is fair with a small positive , making this a sensible selection based on current form and statistical trends. No major data limitations affect in this pick.

Model chance53.5% probability of Over 2.5 Goals
Positive
Implied chance52.6% from odds
Neutral
Value edge+0.9%
Positive
Recent form50% Over 2.5 rate for both teams
Positive
Head-to-head goals2.8 average goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open match with both Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin pushing forward given their similar league positions and attacking output. The data supports a game featuring multiple goals, driven by their offensive tendencies and average shot volumes. This match should provide chances at both ends, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal scoring potential and match balance

“This fixture features two closely matched sides with balanced attacking profiles, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling pick given their recent scoring trends and head-to-head history.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average around 1.5 goals scored per game this season, indicating attacking potency.

Recent matches for both sides have a 50% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, showing a tendency for open games.

Head-to-head meetings average 2.8 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Pogon Szczecin averages more shots on target (5.75) than Zaglebie Lubin (2.75), suggesting offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8 per game, suggesting a history of open contests with multiple goals.
  • This trend, combined with recent form data from both teams, points to a match tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, driven by offensive initiatives and transitional play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Zaglebie Lubin1.25
Avg goals scored
Pogon Szczecin1.75
Zaglebie Lubin1
Avg goals conceded
Pogon Szczecin1
Zaglebie Lubin50%
BTTS rate
Pogon Szczecin50%
Zaglebie Lubin50%
Over 2.5 goals
Pogon Szczecin50%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 53% · edge +0.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 36%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have a 50% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season and a 50% BTTS rate, indicating matches often feature goals from both sides. Their head-to-head average of 2.8 goals per game further supports the likelihood of multiple goals, driven by open play and attacking intent from both sides.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Zaglebie Lubin

DWLW
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
23 Aug 2026A Radomiak Radom0-0
15 Aug 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
02 Aug 2026A Legia Warszawa1-3
27 Jul 2026H Piast Gliwice2-0

Pogon Szczecin

DWWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
23 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow2-2
08 Aug 2026H Motor Lublin3-1
03 Aug 2026A Cracovia Krakow2-0
24 Jul 2026H Legia Warszawa0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 67% · edge +6.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Pogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Zaglebie Lubin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Both teams have collected seven points early in the season with similar goal-scoring and conceding rates, each averaging around 1.25 to 1.75 goals scored and one goal conceded per game. Their recent matches show a 50% rate of Over 2.5 Goals, indicating a trend toward open, goal-rich encounters consistent with the model's prediction.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Pogon Szczecin852213
6Zaglebie Lubin852211
Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin occupy adjacent positions in the Ekstraklasa table, sixth and fifth respectively, each with seven points. This proximity indicates a competitive fixture where both sides seek to consolidate their standing, likely encouraging attacking play to secure vital points. The table context adds significance to the match without directly dictating the goal-scoring pattern.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 53% · edge +0.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Pogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Zaglebie Lubin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced fairly around 1.9, reflecting the model's 53.5% probability and a slight positive . The suggest a balanced expectation of goals, with no significant price sensitivity or warning flags, making it a reasonable betting angle based on current data.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Zaglebie Lubin4
Avg corners for
Pogon Szczecin3.33
Zaglebie Lubin10.33
Avg total corners
Pogon Szczecin8
Zaglebie Lubin1.33
Avg yellow cards
Pogon Szczecin1.67
Zaglebie Lubin11.33
Avg shots
Pogon Szczecin13
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2
Check odds @ 2
Zaglebie Lubin averages 4.25 corners per game while Pogon Szczecin averages 3.25, reflecting moderate attacking pressure. Pogon Szczecin's higher shots on target (5.75) compared to Zaglebie Lubin (2.75) suggests more frequent offensive incursions. Both teams maintain low yellow card averages, indicating disciplined play with fewer interruptions.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Zaglebie Lubin wins
1Draws
6Pogon Szczecin wins
04 Jul 2026Zaglebie Lubin v Pogon Szczecin2-0
15 May 2026Zaglebie Lubin v Pogon Szczecin0-1
24 Nov 2025Pogon Szczecin v Zaglebie Lubin5-1
01 Feb 2025Pogon Szczecin v Zaglebie Lubin1-0
04 Dec 2024Pogon Szczecin v Zaglebie Lubin4-3
28 Jul 2024Zaglebie Lubin v Pogon Szczecin2-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 54% vs implied 53% · edge +0.9 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Pogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Zaglebie Lubin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The ten previous encounters between Zaglebie Lubin and Pogon Szczecin have yielded an average of 2.8 goals per match, indicating a consistent pattern of goal-rich games. While this sample is moderate, it provides a meaningful background supporting the expectation of multiple goals in this fixture.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Zaglebie Lubin5
Played
Pogon Szczecin5
Zaglebie Lubin1
Avg goals for
Pogon Szczecin1.4
Zaglebie Lubin0.8
Avg goals against
Pogon Szczecin0.8
Zaglebie Lubin3
Clean sheets
Pogon Szczecin2
Best odds for this sectionPogon Szczecin Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 52% · edge +2.8 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Load more odds for this section
Pogon Szczecin to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Zaglebie Lubin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Zaglebie Lubin to WinBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Season-long data shows both teams maintain balanced attacking and defensive records, with Zaglebie Lubin scoring 1.25 goals per game and Pogon Szczecin 1.75. Both concede approximately one goal per match, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals in their fixtures. These statistics align with the Over 2.5 Goals selection, reflecting consistent offensive output and moderate defensive vulnerability.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Zaglebie Lubin Over 2.5
50%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.8 per game, suggesting a history of open contests with multiple goals. This trend, combined with recent form data from both teams, points to a match tempo conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, driven by offensive initiatives and transitional play.

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