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Ekstraklasa | Sun 30 Aug, 13:45

Raków Częstochowa v Jagiellonia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 29 Aug 2026, 07:56 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ekstraklasa fixture features Raków Częstochowa hosting Jagiellonia in a crucial early-season encounter. Raków Częstochowa have struggled, sitting bottom of the table without points and scoring only once, while Jagiellonia have started stronger with two wins and six points. Jagiellonia's recent form and mid-table standing contrast with Raków's difficulties, suggesting a tactical battle where Jagiellonia's more effective attack and defensive solidity could prove decisive. The match carries significant pressure for Raków to avoid a poor start, while Jagiellonia aim to consolidate their position and build momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Jagiellonia to Win

  • Jagiellonia has won both opening matches, earning 6 points versus Raków's 0.
  • Raków Częstochowa has scored only 1 goal and conceded 2 in recent games, showing offensive struggles.
  • Jagiellonia averages 14.5 shots per game with a higher shots on target ratio, indicating better attacking threat.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, suggesting potential for open play but Jagiellonia's defense is more stable.
  • Jagiellonia ranks 11th with positive form, while Raków sits 18th without points, highlighting form disparity.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Jagiellonia to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and league standing. Despite Raków's home advantage, their lack of points and low scoring output weaken their case. Jagiellonia's attacking players like N. Prelec and Sergio Lozano demonstrate high goal threat and shot accuracy, supporting the model's . The price offers positive value with a 38.7% edge, making this a compelling selection based on both statistical and tactical indicators. No price warnings apply, allowing standard stake guidance.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Recent FormJagiellonia unbeaten with 6 points vs Raków 0 points
Strong positive
Attacking ThreatJagiellonia's higher shots and shots on target
Positive
League PositionJagiellonia 11th vs Raków 18th
Positive
Price Value Edge38.7% positive edge at 3.2 odds
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Jagiellonia's early-season momentum and superior attacking efficiency make them the favored side in this fixture. Their ability to create quality chances and maintain defensive discipline contrasts with Raków's struggles, providing a solid foundation for a victory. The data supports backing Jagiellonia to capitalize on Raków's vulnerabilities and secure three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Jagiellonia's blend of attacking precision and defensive resilience positions them well to exploit Raków's early-season weaknesses, making their win a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Jagiellonia to Win evidence

Jagiellonia has won both opening matches, earning 6 points versus Raków's 0.

Raków Częstochowa has scored only 1 goal and conceded 2 in recent games, showing offensive struggles.

Jagiellonia averages 14.5 shots per game with a higher shots on target ratio, indicating better attacking threat.

Head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, suggesting potential for open play but Jagiellonia's defense is more stable.

What To Watch In The Data

Jagiellonia to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, indicating generally open games with attacking intent from both sides.
  • This trend suggests potential for multiple goals, but Jagiellonia's recent defensive solidity may moderate the total.
  • The tempo and chance creation in these encounters support a lively match with goal opportunities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Raków Częstochowa5
Avg corners for
Jagiellonia5
Raków Częstochowa9.33
Avg total corners
Jagiellonia8.5
Raków Częstochowa1.33
Avg yellow cards
Jagiellonia3.5
Raków Częstochowa16
Avg shots
Jagiellonia15.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 48% · edge +6.9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Jagiellonia averages more corners (5.5) and shots (14.5) than Raków (3 corners, 17 shots but fewer on target), reflecting their territorial advantage and attacking pressure. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, indicating a balanced discipline level. The shot volume and corner count support Jagiellonia's offensive threat and ability to sustain pressure.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Raków Częstochowa1
Avg goals scored
Jagiellonia1
Raków Częstochowa2
Avg goals conceded
Jagiellonia1
Raków Częstochowa100%
BTTS rate
Jagiellonia33%
Raków Częstochowa100%
Over 2.5 goals
Jagiellonia33%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Recent form shows Raków Częstochowa with a 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rate, indicating open games with goals at both ends. In contrast, Jagiellonia's lower over 2.5 and BTTS rates suggest a more controlled approach. The average 3.6 goals in their last 10 meetings points to potential for goals, but Jagiellonia's defensive discipline may limit scoring to a moderate total.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The for Jagiellonia to win offer clear value compared to the model's 70% win probability. At 3.2, the implied chance is only 31.3%, significantly undervaluing Jagiellonia's form and attacking potential. This pricing suggests a strong betting opportunity with a positive edge, encouraging a standard stake without caution flags.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Raków Częstochowa

LLL
Last 50W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 3L
16 Aug 2026A Cracovia Krakow1-2
02 Aug 2026A Slask Wroclaw1-2
26 Jul 2026H Wisla Plock1-2

Jagiellonia

LWW
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
09 Aug 2026H Widzew Łódź0-2
31 Jul 2026A Motor Lublin2-1
25 Jul 2026H Korona Kielce1-0
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Jagiellonia's unbeaten start with two wins and six points contrasts sharply with Raków Częstochowa's zero points and a single goal scored. This form disparity reflects Jagiellonia's effective attacking and defensive balance, while Raków's struggles suggest vulnerability. The momentum favors Jagiellonia to continue their positive run in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Raków Częstochowa wins
2Draws
4Jagiellonia wins
13 May 2026Raków Częstochowa v Jagiellonia0-2
02 Nov 2025Jagiellonia v Raków Częstochowa1-2
10 May 2025Raków Częstochowa v Jagiellonia1-2
10 Nov 2024Jagiellonia v Raków Częstochowa2-2
10 Dec 2023Jagiellonia v Raków Częstochowa4-2
22 Jul 2023Raków Częstochowa v Jagiellonia3-0
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 3.6 goals per game, highlighting historically open contests. However, the data does not strongly favor either side for a win, serving more as background context. Current form and squad quality provide stronger signals for Jagiellonia's advantage in this fixture.
Season team stats

Ekstraklasa

Raków Częstochowa3
Played
Jagiellonia3
Raków Częstochowa1
Avg goals for
Jagiellonia1
Raków Częstochowa2
Avg goals against
Jagiellonia1
Raków Częstochowa0
Clean sheets
Jagiellonia1
Market aligned with main pickJagiellonia to WinBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Load more odds for this section
Jagiellonia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over the season, Jagiellonia exhibits a more balanced attack and defense, with better goal conversion and fewer goals conceded than Raków. Raków's defensive frailties and low scoring output place them at a disadvantage. These season-long trends reinforce Jagiellonia's superiority and likelihood to secure victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
11Jagiellonia632010
18Raków Częstochowa03003-3
Jagiellonia's mid-table position with six points provides a platform of and stability, while Raków's bottom placement with no points adds pressure and urgency. The standings reflect the current form and competitive gap, influencing the psychological and tactical dynamics of the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Raków Częstochowa Over 2.5
33%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
3.6H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, indicating generally open games with attacking intent from both sides. This trend suggests potential for multiple goals, but Jagiellonia's recent defensive solidity may moderate the total. The tempo and chance creation in these encounters support a lively match with goal opportunities.

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