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Jagiellonia crestJagiellonia
v
Pogon Szczecin crestPogon Szczecin

Ekstraklasa | Wed 16 Dec, 17:00

Jagiellonia v Pogon Szczecin Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 17:37 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Jagiellonia face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa on Wed 16 Dec, 17:00. Jagiellonia come in with 6 recent points and 1.6 goals per match, while Pogon Szczecin have 9 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Pogon Szczecin to Win

  • At 2.84, Pogon Szczecin to Win implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 50%.
  • Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Jagiellonia.
  • Pogon Szczecin have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Pogon Szczecin to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Jagiellonia sit 10 in the table, while Pogon Szczecin sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 50% for Pogon Szczecin to Win sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Jagiellonia.

Model chance vs price50% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Strong positive
Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
Pogon Szczecin have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Pogon Szczecin Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Jagiellonia. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Pogon Szczecin to Win evidence

Pogon Szczecin have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for Jagiellonia.

Pogon Szczecin have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Pogon Szczecin Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Jagiellonia sit 10 in the table, while Pogon Szczecin sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Pogon Szczecin to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Jagiellonia1.6
    Avg goals scored
    Pogon Szczecin1.4
    Jagiellonia1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Pogon Szczecin0.8
    Jagiellonia60%
    BTTS rate
    Pogon Szczecin60%
    Jagiellonia60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Pogon Szczecin40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 65% · edge +4.6 pts
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
    2.55
    Check odds @ 2.55
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for Jagiellonia and 60% for Pogon Szczecin, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Jagiellonia

    LWLWL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 3L
    11 Sep 2026A Wisla Krakow0-2
    06 Sep 2026H Slask Wroclaw2-1
    03 Sep 2026A Lech Poznan1-2
    30 Aug 2026A Raków Częstochowa5-2
    09 Aug 2026H Widzew Łódź0-2

    Pogon Szczecin

    WWDDD
    Last 52W 3D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 1L
    20 Sep 2026A Piast Gliwice2-1
    13 Sep 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-0
    07 Sep 2026H Wisla Plock1-1
    29 Aug 2026A Zaglebie Lubin0-0
    23 Aug 2026H Wisla Krakow2-2
    Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
    2.84
    Check odds @ 2.84
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05

    Continue the research

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    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Pogon Szczecin1584316
    10Jagiellonia1274031
    Jagiellonia sit in position 10, while Pogon Szczecin sit in position 5, so table pressure belongs in the Pogon Szczecin to Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
    2.84
    Check odds @ 2.84
    Load more odds for this section
    Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Pogon Szczecin to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Jagiellonia4
    Avg corners for
    Pogon Szczecin3.6
    Jagiellonia10.2
    Avg total corners
    Pogon Szczecin7
    Jagiellonia1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Pogon Szczecin2
    Jagiellonia13
    Avg shots
    Pogon Szczecin14.4

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

    Check odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Jagiellonia wins
    3Draws
    4Pogon Szczecin wins
    09 May 2026Jagiellonia v Pogon Szczecin3-2
    09 Nov 2025Pogon Szczecin v Jagiellonia1-2
    24 May 2025Jagiellonia v Pogon Szczecin1-1
    01 Dec 2024Pogon Szczecin v Jagiellonia1-1
    26 Apr 2024Jagiellonia v Pogon Szczecin2-2
    03 Apr 2024Pogon Szczecin v Jagiellonia2-1
    Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
    2.84
    Check odds @ 2.84
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Pogon Szczecin to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Ekstraklasa

    Jagiellonia7
    Played
    Pogon Szczecin8
    Jagiellonia1.6
    Avg goals for
    Pogon Szczecin1.5
    Jagiellonia1.4
    Avg goals against
    Pogon Szczecin0.8
    Jagiellonia1
    Clean sheets
    Pogon Szczecin3
    Market aligned with main pickPogon Szczecin to WinBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
    2.84
    Check odds @ 2.84
    Load more odds for this section
    Pogon Szczecin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Season data supports Pogon Szczecin to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Jagiellonia Over 2.5
    40%Pogon Szczecin Over 2.5
    2.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Jagiellonia sit at 60% and Pogon Szczecin sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    More stats pages

    Piast Gliwice v Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa · Sun 20 Sep 11:15Zaglebie Lubin v Wisla PlockEkstraklasa · Sun 20 Sep 13:45Jagiellonia v Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa · Sun 20 Sep 16:30Lech Poznan v Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa · Sun 20 Sep 19:15

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    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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