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Willem II crestWillem II
v
Fortuna Sittard crestFortuna Sittard

Eredivisie | Sat 19 Sep, 20:00

Willem II v Fortuna Sittard Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 20:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Willem II and Fortuna Sittard meet in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities set the stage for an open game. Willem II, struggling near the bottom with just 2 points, have conceded 3 goals in recent outings, while Fortuna Sittard, sitting 7th with 10 points, have shown more stability but still allow goals at a rate of 2.4 per match. Both teams have an 80% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, highlighting a mutual tendency for high-scoring encounters. This fixture promises end-to-end action with both sides eager to assert themselves offensively.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Willem II averages 11 shots per game with 3 on target, showing attacking activity despite low points.
  • Fortuna Sittard averages 9.2 shots and 4.6 shots on target per match, reflecting offensive threat.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 3 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
  • Key players like T. Romeny contribute significant shot volumes, enhancing scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 58% chance versus a market-implied 44.4%, reflecting a strong statistical and tactical case. Both Willem II and Fortuna Sittard have high Over 2.5 Goals rates (80%), and their attacking metrics—such as shots per game and shots on target—support the likelihood of multiple goals. The head-to-head average of 3 goals per match further reinforces this trend. The attacking roles of players like T. Romeny add concrete scoring potential, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance58%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance44.4%
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Both Teams)80%
Strong positive
Shots and Shots on TargetWillem II: 11 shots (3 SOT), Fortuna Sittard: 9.2 shots (4.6 SOT)
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open match with both Willem II and Fortuna Sittard pushing forward aggressively. Willem II's need for points combined with Fortuna Sittard's offensive capabilities suggests a high-scoring game. The statistical trends and player shot volumes back the likelihood of multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two sides with attacking intent but defensive frailties, creating fertile ground for a goal-laden encounter. The shot volumes and recent scoring trends strongly indicate that Over 3.5 Goals is a realistic outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Willem II averages 11 shots per game with 3 on target, showing attacking activity despite low points.

Fortuna Sittard averages 9.2 shots and 4.6 shots on target per match, reflecting offensive threat.

Recent head-to-head matches average 3 goals per game, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a history of open, attacking games between these teams.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a continuation of high-scoring encounters, supporting Over 2.5 Goals as a relevant trend to watch.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Willem II1
Avg goals scored
Fortuna Sittard2
Willem II3
Avg goals conceded
Fortuna Sittard2.4
Willem II80%
BTTS rate
Fortuna Sittard80%
Willem II80%
Over 2.5 goals
Fortuna Sittard80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 44% · edge +13.6 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Willem II scoring only 1 goal but conceding 3 recently, and Fortuna Sittard scoring 2 while conceding 2.4 per game. The mutual BTTS rate of 80% indicates both sides tend to concede and score, supporting a goal-rich scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Fortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Willem II Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.25, reflecting a 44.4% implied chance, while the model estimates a 58% probability. This positive of 13.6% suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth standard stakes.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Willem II4.2
Avg corners for
Fortuna Sittard2.4
Willem II12.2
Avg total corners
Fortuna Sittard10.8
Willem II0.8
Avg yellow cards
Fortuna Sittard1.8
Willem II11
Avg shots
Fortuna Sittard9.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 64% · edge +11.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Willem II averages 4.2 corners per game compared to Fortuna Sittard's 2.4, indicating slightly more attacking pressure from the home side. Fortuna Sittard's higher yellow card average (1.8 vs 0.8) suggests a more aggressive defensive approach, which could lead to set-piece opportunities and disrupt rhythm, influencing shots and goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Willem II

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 4L
15 Sep 2026A Ajax1-5
11 Sep 2026A AZ Alkmaar1-1
05 Sep 2026H Excelsior0-3
30 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2
15 Aug 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-4

Fortuna Sittard

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 2L
12 Sep 2026H Ajax1-5
06 Sep 2026A ADO Den Haag3-2
28 Aug 2026A Groningen3-2
22 Aug 2026H AZ Alkmaar0-2
15 Aug 2026H Cambuur3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Fortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Fortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Willem II Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Recent form shows Willem II with only 2 points and 1 goal scored, but an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate suggests matches remain open. Fortuna Sittard holds 9 points with 2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, maintaining the same Over 2.5 rate. This consistency in high-scoring games underlines the likelihood of a goal-heavy fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Willem II wins
4Draws
3Fortuna Sittard wins
27 Apr 2025Fortuna Sittard v Willem II1-0
20 Oct 2024Willem II v Fortuna Sittard0-0
13 Mar 2022Fortuna Sittard v Willem II1-0
22 Oct 2021Willem II v Fortuna Sittard1-1
16 May 2021Willem II v Fortuna Sittard2-1
05 Dec 2020Fortuna Sittard v Willem II3-2
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 65% · edge +11.5 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Fortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
The 10 previous meetings between Willem II and Fortuna Sittard have averaged 3 goals per game, reflecting a pattern of open play and goal opportunities. While historical data supports a high-scoring fixture, current tactical setups and player form will ultimately influence the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eredivisie

Willem II7
Played
Fortuna Sittard7
Willem II0.9
Avg goals for
Fortuna Sittard1.9
Willem II2.9
Avg goals against
Fortuna Sittard2
Willem II0
Clean sheets
Fortuna Sittard1
Best odds for this sectionFortuna Sittard Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Fortuna Sittard to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Willem II Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season-long data reveals both teams maintain high Over 2.5 Goals rates at 80%, with Willem II's defense leaking goals and Fortuna Sittard balancing scoring with conceding. The offensive output combined with defensive vulnerabilities supports the expectation of multiple goals in this match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Fortuna Sittard137412-1
18Willem II27025-14
Willem II sits 17th with just 2 points, facing pressure to improve results, likely encouraging attacking play. Fortuna Sittard ranks 7th with 10 points, aiming to consolidate their position. The contrasting table positions suggest Willem II may take more risks, increasing goal-scoring chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Willem II Over 2.5
80%Fortuna Sittard Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3, indicating a history of open, attacking games between these teams. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a continuation of high-scoring encounters, supporting Over 2.5 Goals as a relevant trend to watch.

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