AZ Alkmaar

Telstar

Eredivisie | Sun 20 Sep, 13:30

AZ Alkmaar v Telstar Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This KNVB Beker semi-final between AZ Alkmaar and Telstar sets up as a tactical battle with high stakes. AZ Alkmaar come in with strong home form, having lost only once in their last eleven matches, and they aim to control possession and territory through precise passing and central attacks. Telstar arrive on a four-game winning streak in the cup, relying on wide play and aerial strength to challenge AZ's defensive vulnerabilities. Key absences for AZ, including Denso Kasius and Sven Mijnans, shift defensive balance and creative output, making the contest finely poised with both teams capable of scoring but AZ favoured to win.

BT4Y best bet

AZ Alkmaar Win & Under 2.5 Goals

AZ Alkmaar have lost just one of their last 11 home matches, showing strong home resilience.
Telstar’s aerial duels won average (13.9) surpasses AZ’s (12.2), highlighting their threat on set pieces.
AZ Alkmaar average 21.6 shots per game with 8.2 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.
Telstar’s style focuses on wide deliveries, with Jeff Hardeveld providing high crossing volume.
AZ Alkmaar’s tactical plan centres on possession control and through balls, despite defensive lapses on wide and long shots.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates AZ Alkmaar Win & Under 2.5 Goals as a strong value bet with a 36.6% chance against an implied 15.4% market chance, reflecting a 21.2% . AZ’s superior home form, high shot volume, and possession control support the likelihood of a home win, while Telstar’s defensive resilience and aerial threat suggest a low-scoring game under 2.5 goals. The model at 62% underlines a solid tactical and statistical basis for this selection, with no price warnings or data limitations affecting the pick.

Model Chance36.6%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance15.4%

Strong positive

Value Edge21.2%

Strong positive

Confidence Level62%

Positive

Data QualityComplete for both teams

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

AZ Alkmaar’s tactical control and home control make them well placed to win this semi-final, while Telstar’s aerial threat and wide play ensure they will test AZ’s defence. The prediction of under 2.5 goals aligns with AZ’s tendency to control possession and limit high-scoring outcomes, making the combined bet a balanced reflection of the match dynamics.

Main risk

Telstar’s risk lies in their vulnerability when defending set pieces and defending the wings.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form balance

“AZ Alkmaar’s possession-based approach and home form give them the edge, but Telstar’s aerial strength and crossing ability will keep the contest tight and likely low-scoring.”

Key Data Signals

AZ Alkmaar Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

AZ Alkmaar have lost just one of their last 11 home matches, showing strong home resilience.

Telstar’s aerial duels won average (13.9) surpasses AZ’s (12.2), highlighting their threat on set pieces.

AZ Alkmaar average 21.6 shots per game with 8.2 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Telstar’s style focuses on wide deliveries, with Jeff Hardeveld providing high crossing volume.

What To Watch In The Data

AZ Alkmaar Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

In the last three meetings, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters.
Both teams have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate recently, but the tactical emphasis on possession control by AZ and defensive resilience by Telstar suggests a match likely to stay under 2.5 goals.
The trend points to a balanced tempo with chances limited by defensive discipline and tactical caution.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AZ Alkmaar7.75

Avg corners for

Telstar5.5

AZ Alkmaar11

Avg total corners

Telstar10.25

AZ Alkmaar1

Avg yellow cards

Telstar1

AZ Alkmaar20.5

Avg shots

Telstar10.25

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

AZ Alkmaar’s high average of 21.6 shots and 9.2 corners per game indicates sustained pressure and territorial control. Telstar’s lower shot volume (8.8) and corners (4.8) reflect a more reactive approach. Discipline is balanced with AZ averaging 1 yellow card and Telstar 1.4, suggesting moderate fouling that could lead to set-piece opportunities, especially benefiting Telstar’s aerial game.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AZ Alkmaar3

Avg goals scored

Telstar0.6

AZ Alkmaar1.2

Avg goals conceded

Telstar2

AZ Alkmaar80%

BTTS rate

Telstar40%

AZ Alkmaar60%

Over 2.5 goals

Telstar60%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%

3.6

Check odds @ 3.6

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%

1.07

Check odds @ 1.07

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Both teams have shown capacity to score, with AZ averaging 3 goals for and 1.2 against recently, while Telstar’s 0.6 goals for and 2 against reflect a more defensive posture. Telstar’s aerial threat and crossing volume suggest they can breach AZ’s defence, supporting a Both Teams to Score scenario, but the under 2.5 goals expectation aligns with AZ’s controlled tempo and defensive caution.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.16

Check odds @ 1.16

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

The of 11/2 for AZ Alkmaar Win & Under 2.5 Goals represent strong value given the model’s 36.6% chance versus the market’s 15.4% implied probability. This price reflects in AZ’s home form and tactical setup, while acknowledging Telstar’s defensive resilience that limits goal volume, making the market attractive without price warnings.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AZ Alkmaar

DWWWW

Last 54W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 105W 1D 0L

11 Sep 2026H Willem II1-1

06 Sep 2026A Heerenveen3-2

29 Aug 2026H GO Ahead Eagles5-2

22 Aug 2026A Fortuna Sittard2-0

15 Aug 2026A Utrecht4-1

Telstar

DLDLL

Last 50W 2D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 3L

13 Sep 2026A Heerenveen0-0

09 Sep 2026A Twente0-1

06 Sep 2026H Cambuur2-2

30 Aug 2026H Ajax0-4

14 Aug 2026H Sparta Rotterdam1-3

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 94% · edge -8.3 pts

1.06

Check odds @ 1.06

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AZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

AZ Alkmaar Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.16

Check odds @ 1.16

AZ Alkmaar’s recent form shows 13 points with 3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, reflecting solid performance and defensive control. Telstar’s 2 points with 0.6 goals scored and 2 conceded indicate struggles in attack and defence. Both teams have a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent matches, but AZ’s higher BTTS rate (80%) versus Telstar’s 40% suggests AZ’s matches are more open offensively, supporting a controlled but decisive home win under 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3AZ Alkmaar wins

0Draws

0Telstar wins

04 Mar 2026AZ Alkmaar v Telstar2-1

25 Jan 2026Telstar v AZ Alkmaar0-1

05 Oct 2025AZ Alkmaar v Telstar2-1

Market aligned with main pickAZ Alkmaar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 80% · edge -6 pts

1.25

Check odds @ 1.25

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

The head-to-head sample of three matches shows an average of 2.33 goals per game, reflecting competitive but not high-scoring affairs. Previous meetings indicate a pattern of tight scorelines, which aligns with the prediction of AZ Alkmaar winning with under 2.5 goals. While the sample is limited, it supports the expectation of a controlled game with limited goal volume.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	AZ Alkmaar	16	6	5	1	0	11
13	Telstar	5	6	1	2	3	-6

AZ Alkmaar’s second-place standing with 16 points contrasts with Telstar’s 13th place and 5 points, highlighting the gulf in league performance and quality. This gap supports AZ’s status as favourites in this cup semi-final, though Telstar’s cup form and tactical approach can keep the match competitive. The standings provide context for AZ’s motivation to secure a final spot and Telstar’s underdog resilience.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5

60%Telstar Over 2.5

2.33H2H avg goals

In the last three meetings, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderately low-scoring encounters. Both teams have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate recently, but the tactical emphasis on possession control by AZ and defensive resilience by Telstar suggests a match likely to stay under 2.5 goals. The trend points to a balanced tempo with chances limited by defensive discipline and tactical caution.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

AZ Alkmaar v Telstar Stats

Match Report

AZ Alkmaar Win & Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

AZ Alkmaar

Telstar

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AZ Alkmaar v Telstar Stats

Match Report

AZ Alkmaar Win & Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

AZ Alkmaar

Telstar

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