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Premier Division | Fri 11 Sep, 19:45

Waterford v Dundalk Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Dundalk host Waterford in a Premier Division clash where Dundalk sit comfortably in third place with strong recent form, having secured 13 points from their last five matches. Waterford, struggling near the bottom, remain winless away this season and face a tough challenge at Oriel Park. Dundalk's tactical approach focuses on possession control and high pressing, aiming to exploit Waterford's defensive vulnerabilities. However, Waterford's recent head-to-head performances, including a thrilling 3-3 draw, suggest they can cause problems despite their poor away record, setting up a contest with contrasting pressures and styles.

BT4Y best bet

Waterford Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Waterford remain winless away this season but have caused Dundalk problems in recent meetings.
  • Dundalk have strong home form with six wins but concede frequently, allowing scoring chances.
  • The last six head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, indicating potential for goals despite defensive concerns.
  • Waterford’s defensive compactness and 5-3-2 formation aim to limit Dundalk’s attacking rhythm.
  • Dundalk’s recent form shows attacking efficiency but defensive lapses, supporting a low-scoring close game.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Waterford Win & Under 2.5 Goals due to Waterford's surprising resilience in recent head-to-head matches despite their poor away record. The model notes Dundalk's defensive vulnerabilities and Waterford's tactical compactness, which could limit goal-scoring opportunities. The price offers strong value given the implied chance is much lower than the model's estimated 36.7% chance. While Dundalk have been scoring consistently, Waterford's ability to frustrate them and keep the scoreline tight underpins this selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Waterford's away form0 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses
Neutral
Dundalk's defensive record29 goals conceded in 21 matches
Negative
Head-to-head goal average3.5 goals per game in last 6 meetings
Neutral
Recent form pointsWaterford 11, Dundalk 5 in last 5 matches
Positive
Price vs model chance15/2 odds imply 11.8%, model chance 36.7%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Waterford’s tactical discipline and recent head-to-head resilience make them a credible underdog to secure a narrow victory while keeping the game tight. Dundalk’s defensive lapses and Waterford’s compact 5-3-2 setup suggest a low-scoring match where Waterford can capitalize on key moments to claim an unlikely win.

Main risk

Dundalk fell behind to Cian Byrne’s early goal after five minutes, but responded through Danny Mullen in the 22nd minute and Eoin Kenny in the 76th.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and defensive analysis

“Waterford’s ability to frustrate Dundalk in recent encounters combined with Dundalk’s defensive fragility creates a compelling case for a close, low-scoring upset at Oriel Park.”

Key Data Signals

Waterford Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Waterford remain winless away this season but have caused Dundalk problems in recent meetings.

Dundalk have strong home form with six wins but concede frequently, allowing scoring chances.

The last six head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, indicating potential for goals despite defensive concerns.

Waterford’s defensive compactness and 5-3-2 formation aim to limit Dundalk’s attacking rhythm.

What To Watch In The Data

Waterford Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture.
  • However, recent matches have shown a mix of high-scoring draws and narrow wins, suggesting fluctuating tempo and defensive gaps.
  • The trend panel highlights that while Over 2.5 goals is common, this fixture’s tactical context and recent form point toward a lower-scoring game, with both sides likely to score but under 2.5 goals total, aligning with the primary pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Waterford1.2
Avg goals scored
Dundalk1.6
Waterford0.2
Avg goals conceded
Dundalk1.8
Waterford20%
BTTS rate
Dundalk100%
Waterford20%
Over 2.5 goals
Dundalk60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 42% · edge +6 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Both teams have shown goal-scoring ability recently, with Dundalk scoring in every match over their last six and Waterford netting in the last head-to-head. However, Waterford’s defensive compactness and the expected cautious approach suggest fewer goals overall. The last six meetings averaged 3.5 goals, but this match’s tactical context and recent form support a lower-scoring affair with both teams likely to score but under 2.5 goals total.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWaterford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Waterford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The of 15/2 for Waterford Win & Under 2.5 Goals represent significant value compared to the model's 36.7% chance, implying a strong potential return. This price reflects market skepticism about Waterford’s ability to win away but overlooks their recent head-to-head successes and Dundalk’s defensive vulnerabilities. The market is pricing in Dundalk’s home advantage heavily, but the tactical and form evidence suggests this price is a positive value opportunity rather than a safe certainty.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Waterford6.6
Avg corners for
Dundalk6.6
Waterford13
Avg total corners
Dundalk9.6
Waterford2.2
Avg yellow cards
Dundalk2.8
Waterford16.4
Avg shots
Dundalk19.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams average 7.5 corners per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure. Dundalk’s higher shot volume (20.25) compared to Waterford (16.5) reflects their offensive intent, but Waterford’s disciplined defensive shape may limit clear chances. Card averages are similar, with Dundalk slightly higher, suggesting a competitive but controlled match. The combination of sustained pressure and fouling patterns points to a tactical battle with moderate set-piece involvement and disciplined defending.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Waterford

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
28 Aug 2026A St Patrick's Athl.2-0
21 Aug 2026A Sligo Rovers0-0
09 Aug 2026H Bohemians3-1
02 Aug 2026H Shelbourne1-0
25 Jul 2026A Galway United0-0

Dundalk

WLLDD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
28 Aug 2026A Drogheda United3-2
21 Aug 2026H Galway United1-2
07 Aug 2026A Shamrock Rovers2-3
31 Jul 2026H Sligo Rovers1-1
24 Jul 2026A St Patrick's Athl.1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
Waterford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 71%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Waterford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Waterford’s recent form shows 11 points from their last five matches, reflecting improved resilience despite poor away results overall. Dundalk have earned 5 points in the same period, scoring more but also conceding more goals. Waterford’s ability to grind out results contrasts with Dundalk’s more open style, suggesting a match where Waterford’s recent momentum and defensive focus could frustrate Dundalk and keep the scoreline low, supporting the combined bet.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

6Waterford wins
2Draws
2Dundalk wins
26 Jun 2026Dundalk v Waterford2-3
04 May 2026Waterford v Dundalk3-3
13 Mar 2026Dundalk v Waterford5-0
13 Sep 2024Waterford v Dundalk2-1
28 Jun 2024Dundalk v Waterford0-2
10 May 2024Waterford v Dundalk4-1
Market aligned with main pickWaterford to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The head-to-head record over recent meetings shows Waterford with three wins, Dundalk with one, and two draws, illustrating Waterford’s ability to challenge Dundalk despite league form differences. The last match ended 3-3, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. This history supports the pick by showing Waterford’s capacity to score and disrupt Dundalk’s rhythm, making a Waterford win with limited goals plausible based on past encounters.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Premier Division

Waterford29
Played
Dundalk29
Waterford1.3
Avg goals for
Dundalk1.6
Waterford1.7
Avg goals against
Dundalk1.6
Waterford6
Clean sheets
Dundalk5
Market aligned with main pickWaterford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Load more odds for this section
Waterford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Waterford’s season stats reveal a leaky defense with 42 goals conceded but a capable attack scoring 25 goals. Dundalk’s 29 goals conceded and 34 scored show a more balanced but still vulnerable side. Waterford’s poor away record contrasts with Dundalk’s strong home form, but the defensive frailties on both sides underpin the expectation of a close, low-scoring game where Waterford’s tactical compactness could be decisive.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Dundalk4029101091
8Waterford322971111-9
Dundalk’s fourth-place position with 40 points contrasts with Waterford’s eighth place and 32 points, reflecting the gulf in season performance. However, the league standings do not fully capture Waterford’s recent head-to-head success against Dundalk or their tactical approach. The pressure on Dundalk to maintain top positions at home adds stakes, while Waterford fight to climb out of the relegation zone, making this a high-pressure encounter despite the points gap.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Waterford Over 2.5
60%Dundalk Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between these teams have averaged 3.5 goals per game, indicating a historically open fixture. However, recent matches have shown a mix of high-scoring draws and narrow wins, suggesting fluctuating tempo and defensive gaps. The trend panel highlights that while Over 2.5 goals is common, this fixture’s tactical context and recent form point toward a lower-scoring game, with both sides likely to score but under 2.5 goals total, aligning with the primary pick.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Waterford v Dundalk prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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