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St Patrick's Athl. crestSt Patrick's Athl.
v
Shamrock Rovers crestShamrock Rovers

Premier Division | Fri 11 Sep, 20:00

St Patrick's Athl. v Shamrock Rovers Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash features St Patrick's Athl., second in the table, hosting league leaders Shamrock Rovers. Both teams have shown solid defensive discipline recently, with St Patrick's Athl. conceding an average of 1 goal per game and Shamrock Rovers 1.2. The match carries high stakes as the top two sides battle for supremacy, likely leading to cautious tactical approaches. Recent form suggests a tight encounter with limited goal-scoring bursts, setting the stage for a low-scoring contest under pressure to avoid costly mistakes.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • St Patrick's Athl. have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, indicating tight matches.
  • Shamrock Rovers concede an average of 1.2 goals per game, showing defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but recent matches lean towards fewer goals.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.5 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a low-scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 61.3% chance to under 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' defensive strengths and recent low-scoring matches. St Patrick's Athl.'s 20% over 2.5 rate contrasts with Shamrock Rovers' 60%, but the combined defensive discipline and tactical caution in a top-table clash favor fewer goals. The at 1.8 offer a small positive , making under 2.5 goals a sensible pick given the match context and statistical trends. No data limitations affect in this selection.

Model Chance61.3%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55.6%
Positive
Value Edge5.7%
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate (St Patrick's Athl.)20%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate (Shamrock Rovers)60%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 goals is a logical choice given the defensive resilience both teams have shown and the high stakes of this top-table encounter. Tactical caution is expected, limiting clear-cut chances and goal-scoring opportunities. The statistical profile supports a tight game with fewer goals, making this a sound betting angle.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive discipline

“This fixture's tactical intensity and defensive discipline from both sides create a strong case for a low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals likely as both teams prioritize control over risk.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Shamrock Rovers concede an average of 1.2 goals per game, showing defensive solidity.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but recent matches lean towards fewer goals.

H2H average goals stand at 2.5 over the last 10 meetings, supporting a low-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is exactly 2.5, indicating a balanced scoring trend.
  • St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches show a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, while Shamrock Rovers have 60%.
  • This mixed trend suggests a moderate tempo with potential for a tight game, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals angle as a reasonable expectation.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

St Patrick's Athl.6
Avg corners for
Shamrock Rovers4
St Patrick's Athl.11.4
Avg total corners
Shamrock Rovers7.8
St Patrick's Athl.2
Avg yellow cards
Shamrock Rovers2.4
St Patrick's Athl.15.6
Avg shots
Shamrock Rovers12.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
St Patrick's Athl. average 6 corners per game compared to Shamrock Rovers' 4, indicating slightly more attacking pressure from the home side. Both teams average around 2 yellow cards per game, reflecting moderate discipline. Shot volumes are moderate, with St Patrick's Athl. taking 15.6 shots and Shamrock Rovers 12.4, but quality finishing and defensive organization likely limit goal conversion, supporting a low-scoring outlook.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

St Patrick's Athl.1.2
Avg goals scored
Shamrock Rovers1.6
St Patrick's Athl.1
Avg goals conceded
Shamrock Rovers1.2
St Patrick's Athl.60%
BTTS rate
Shamrock Rovers60%
St Patrick's Athl.20%
Over 2.5 goals
Shamrock Rovers60%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 56% · edge +5.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but St Patrick's Athl.'s low 20% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Shamrock Rovers' 60%, indicating mixed attacking outputs. The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 2.5, suggesting matches often hover around this threshold. The data points to a balanced goal environment with a slight lean towards fewer goals, supporting the under 2.5 selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Shamrock Rovers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The under 2.5 goals market is priced at 1.8 with a of 61.3%, indicating a small positive . The reflect cautious optimism for a low-scoring game, aligning well with the defensive profiles and recent match tempo. This pricing suggests a solid but not overwhelming in fewer goals, making it a sensible selection without being a standout value bet.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

St Patrick's Athl.

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
28 Aug 2026H Waterford0-2
21 Aug 2026A Drogheda United2-0
09 Aug 2026A Shelbourne2-1
02 Aug 2026H Derry City1-1
24 Jul 2026H Dundalk1-1

Shamrock Rovers

DDWDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
04 Sep 2026H Shelbourne0-0
30 Aug 2026A Derry City3-3
07 Aug 2026H Dundalk3-2
31 Jul 2026A Drogheda United0-0
03 Jul 2026A Sligo Rovers2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.6 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Shamrock Rovers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Recent form data shows St Patrick's Athl. scoring 1.2 goals and conceding 1 per game, while Shamrock Rovers score 1.6 and concede 1.2. St Patrick's Athl.'s low 20% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Shamrock Rovers' 60%, indicating the home side's matches tend to be tighter. This form profile supports an expectation of a cautious game with under 2.5 goals likely.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4St Patrick's Athl. wins
1Draws
5Shamrock Rovers wins
16 Aug 2026St Patrick's Athl. v Shamrock Rovers3-2
29 May 2026Shamrock Rovers v St Patrick's Athl.1-0
10 Apr 2026St Patrick's Athl. v Shamrock Rovers0-1
20 Feb 2026Shamrock Rovers v St Patrick's Athl.2-0
17 Oct 2025St Patrick's Athl. v Shamrock Rovers1-0
19 May 2025Shamrock Rovers v St Patrick's Athl.4-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Shamrock Rovers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, indicating a balanced scoring history between the teams. While not decisively low-scoring, the data suggests matches often remain tight and competitive. This historical context supports a cautious outlook on goal volume for this fixture.
Season team stats

Premier Division

St Patrick's Athl.29
Played
Shamrock Rovers29
St Patrick's Athl.1.6
Avg goals for
Shamrock Rovers1.6
St Patrick's Athl.0.9
Avg goals against
Shamrock Rovers0.9
St Patrick's Athl.10
Clean sheets
Shamrock Rovers11
Best odds for this sectionShamrock Rovers Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Shamrock Rovers to WinBetMGM guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Season-long stats reveal St Patrick's Athl. maintain a strong defensive record with just 1 goal conceded per game and a low over 2.5 goals occurrence at 20%. Shamrock Rovers have a slightly more open style but still concede only 1.2 goals per match. These defensive numbers underpin the under 2.5 goals pick, reflecting consistent season-long trends towards controlled scoring.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Shamrock Rovers5629168519
2St Patrick's Athl.5029148720
The top two league positions held by Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. highlight the high stakes of this match. Both teams are likely to prioritize defensive solidity to avoid costly errors, reducing the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The standings context supports a tactical, cautious approach consistent with under 2.5 goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%St Patrick's Athl. Over 2.5
60%Shamrock Rovers Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is exactly 2.5, indicating a balanced scoring trend. St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches show a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20%, while Shamrock Rovers have 60%. This mixed trend suggests a moderate tempo with potential for a tight game, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals angle as a reasonable expectation.

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