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Shelbourne crestShelbourne
v
Derry City crestDerry City

Premier Division | Fri 11 Sep, 19:45

Shelbourne v Derry City Stats

Data last updated: Thu 10 Sep 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash features Shelbourne visiting Derry City amid contrasting momentum. Shelbourne arrive unbeaten in five, including back-to-back wins, showcasing resilience and effective away form with just one loss on the road. Derry City, in contrast, have endured a five-match winless run, drawing four times, and face defensive disruptions due to suspensions. Both teams maintain similar possession stats, but Shelbourne's purposeful vertical attacks and recent contrast with Derry's struggle to convert possession into meaningful chances. The fixture promises a tense midfield battle with high stakes for both sides seeking to climb the table.

BT4Y best bet

Shelbourne Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Shelbourne unbeaten in last five league matches, with strong away form including five wins from seven road games.
  • Derry City winless in last five league matches, drawing four, with defensive absences disrupting backline stability.
  • Both teams average around 53% possession, but Shelbourne display more verticality and attacking urgency.
  • Shelbourne average 1.6 goals and 14.4 attempts per game recently, indicating sustained offensive pressure.
  • Derry City concede about 1 goal per game but have struggled to create high-quality chances, averaging fewer shots on target.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Shelbourne Win & Under 2.5 Goals due to Shelbourne's strong unbeaten streak and superior away performances, combined with Derry City's recent winless run and defensive instability from key suspensions. Both teams' possession stats suggest a balanced midfield contest, but Shelbourne's more purposeful attacking style and Derry's low shot volume support a tight game with limited goals. The current offer positive value, reflecting a realistic chance for Shelbourne to secure a narrow victory in a low-scoring match. No price warnings apply, supporting a standard stake approach.

Shelbourne recent form5-match unbeaten run with strong away results
Strong positive
Derry City defensive disruptionMultiple suspensions impacting defensive continuity
Positive
Attacking metricsShelbourne average 1.6 goals and 14.4 attempts per game
Positive
Possession balanceBoth teams average ~53% possession but Shelbourne more vertical
Positive
Price valueOdds imply 16.7% chance vs model 22.8%, positive edge
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Shelbourne's recent unbeaten run and strong away form position them well to edge this closely matched contest. Derry City's defensive absences and lack of attacking penetration reduce their threat, making a narrow Shelbourne win in a low-scoring game the most plausible outcome based on current form and tactical setups.

Main risk

Draws can steady a season for a while, but eventually they begin to feel like losses wearing a disguise.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Shelbourne's resilience and purposeful attacking transitions contrast sharply with Derry City's defensive disruptions and stagnant possession, making a tight, low-scoring win for Shelbourne the most tactically coherent scenario.”

Key Data Signals

Shelbourne Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Shelbourne unbeaten in last five league matches, with strong away form including five wins from seven road games.

Derry City winless in last five league matches, drawing four, with defensive absences disrupting backline stability.

Both teams average around 53% possession, but Shelbourne display more verticality and attacking urgency.

Shelbourne average 1.6 goals and 14.4 attempts per game recently, indicating sustained offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Shelbourne Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.8, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters.
  • Recent matches have featured tight defensive battles with limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the expectation of under 2.5 goals.
  • The tempo and tactical caution observed in these fixtures suggest a controlled game with few clear-cut chances.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Shelbourne4
Avg corners for
Derry City5.4
Shelbourne8.8
Avg total corners
Derry City10.4
Shelbourne3
Avg yellow cards
Derry City1.8
Shelbourne12.8
Avg shots
Derry City15.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Derry City average 5.4 corners and 15.2 shots per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure, while Shelbourne average 4 corners and 12.8 shots, reflecting their controlled but purposeful offense. Card data shows Shelbourne accumulate more yellows (3 per game) than Derry (1.8), suggesting Shelbourne's aggressive pressing and defensive intensity could influence match tempo and discipline.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Shelbourne0.8
Avg goals scored
Derry City2.2
Shelbourne1
Avg goals conceded
Derry City2.6
Shelbourne60%
BTTS rate
Derry City80%
Shelbourne40%
Over 2.5 goals
Derry City60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have shown tendencies toward low-scoring matches recently. Derry City average 2.6 goals conceded per game but have drawn four of their last five matches, often with limited shot quality. Shelbourne's attacking output is moderate, averaging 0.8 goals per game recently, supporting an expectation of under 3.5 goals and a likely BTTS No scenario in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickShelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 44% · edge -3 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Shelbourne Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
The market prices Shelbourne Win & Under 2.5 Goals at 5/1, implying a 16.7% chance, while the model estimates a 22.8% probability, indicating positive value. This reflects in Shelbourne's form and defensive solidity, with the offering a favorable entry point for this selection without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Shelbourne

DDLLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
04 Sep 2026A Shamrock Rovers0-0
28 Aug 2026A Galway United1-1
09 Aug 2026H St Patrick's Athl.1-2
02 Aug 2026A Waterford0-1
03 Jul 2026H Dundalk2-1

Derry City

DLWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
30 Aug 2026H Shamrock Rovers3-3
21 Aug 2026A Bohemians3-5
07 Aug 2026H Sligo Rovers2-0
02 Aug 2026A St Patrick's Athl.1-1
03 Jul 2026H Waterford2-4
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 74% · edge -3.8 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Shelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Shelbourne Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Shelbourne's recent form is impressive, with five unbeaten matches including back-to-back wins, highlighting growing and tactical cohesion. Derry City's form contrasts sharply, with a five-match winless streak marked by four draws, reflecting struggles to convert possession into decisive chances. This form disparity underpins the selection favoring Shelbourne while anticipating a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Shelbourne wins
3Draws
4Derry City wins
25 May 2026Derry City v Shelbourne0-0
17 Apr 2026Shelbourne v Derry City1-2
13 Mar 2026Derry City v Shelbourne1-2
19 Sep 2025Derry City v Shelbourne1-1
20 Jun 2025Shelbourne v Derry City0-1
02 May 2025Derry City v Shelbourne2-0
Market aligned with main pickShelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 44% · edge -3 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches reveals a pattern of closely fought contests averaging 1.8 goals per game. This historical trend supports a low-scoring outcome and indicates that neither side has dominated decisively, reinforcing the likelihood of a narrow Shelbourne win or draw scenario in line with recent form and tactical setups.
Season team stats

Premier Division

Shelbourne28
Played
Derry City29
Shelbourne1.3
Avg goals for
Derry City1.4
Shelbourne1.4
Avg goals against
Derry City1.4
Shelbourne6
Clean sheets
Derry City7
Market aligned with main pickShelbourne to WinBetfred guide price · Model 41% vs implied 44% · edge -3 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Shelbourne Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Season-long statistics show Shelbourne maintaining a solid defensive record and a steady attacking output, averaging 1.0 goals conceded and 1.6 goals scored in recent matches. Derry City have conceded more goals on average and display a higher over 2.5 goals rate, but their recent matches have been dominated by draws and low shot accuracy, suggesting a defensive approach that aligns with the under 2.5 goals prediction.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Shelbourne36288128-2
6Derry City342971391
Both teams sit closely in the Premier Division standings, with Shelbourne fifth on 36 points and Derry City sixth on 34 points. The narrow points gap intensifies the stakes, with both sides eyeing European qualification spots. This proximity adds competitive tension but does not decisively favor either side, emphasizing the importance of current form and tactical execution over table position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Shelbourne Over 2.5
60%Derry City Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.8, indicating a trend toward low-scoring encounters. Recent matches have featured tight defensive battles with limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting the expectation of under 2.5 goals. The tempo and tactical caution observed in these fixtures suggest a controlled game with few clear-cut chances.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Shelbourne v Derry City prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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