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Vila Nova crestVila Nova
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Londrina crestLondrina

Serie B | Sat 26 Sep, 00:30

Vila Nova v Londrina Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 07:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Vila Nova, the league leaders with 51 points, hosting Londrina, who sit 18th with 28 points. Vila Nova has been solid at home but faces a resilient Londrina side that has shown an ability to avoid defeat on the road. Londrina's recent form includes a mix of results, but their defensive organization and counter-attacking threat make them a tough opponent. The match carries significant stakes for Londrina as they aim to climb out of the relegation zone, setting up a tactical battle with Vila Nova's attacking intent against Londrina's defensive resilience.

BT4Y best bet

Londrina or Draw

  • Londrina or Draw offers strong value with a 20.2% positive edge over .
  • Londrina averages 2.0 goals scored per match, showing attacking potential.
  • Vila Nova's recent matches have a low over 2.5 goals rate at 20%, indicating tighter games.
  • Londrina's average 7.6 corners per game suggest sustained pressure and attacking intent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Londrina or Draw with a 63.7% chance, significantly higher than the 43.5% implied by current , indicating clear value. Londrina's ability to score and defend effectively on the road, combined with Vila Nova's lower scoring rate and conservative recent matches, supports this double chance. The positive and solid level make this a compelling selection, though Vila Nova's strong home form means caution is warranted.

Model Chance63.7%
Strong positive
Implied Chance43.5%
Positive
Value Edge20.2%
Strong positive
Confidence78
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Londrina or Draw is a tactically sound pick given Londrina's resilience and ability to avoid defeat against a dominant Vila Nova side. The data shows Londrina's decent attacking output and defensive solidity, making the double chance a prudent choice in a fixture where Vila Nova's home advantage is significant but not overwhelming.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and value insight

“Londrina's defensive discipline and counter-attacking threat make the double chance a smart bet against Vila Nova's home control. The undervalue Londrina's chances, presenting a clear value opportunity.”

Key Data Signals

Londrina or Draw evidence

Londrina or Draw offers strong value with a 20.2% positive edge over .

Londrina averages 2.0 goals scored per match, showing attacking potential.

Vila Nova's recent matches have a low over 2.5 goals rate at 20%, indicating tighter games.

Londrina's average 7.6 corners per game suggest sustained pressure and attacking intent.

What To Watch In The Data

Londrina or Draw notes

  • Over the last five matches, Londrina's games have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open, attacking encounters.
  • Vila Nova's matches show only a 20% rate, suggesting tighter games.
  • The average goals in their last 10 head-to-head matches is 2.2, supporting a moderate tempo with chances for goals from both sides, influenced by Londrina's attacking impetus and Vila Nova's defensive caution.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vila Nova3.6
Avg corners for
Londrina7.6
Vila Nova8.6
Avg total corners
Londrina9.6
Vila Nova3
Avg yellow cards
Londrina2.6
Vila Nova14.8
Avg shots
Londrina18.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Londrina averages 7.6 corners per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure, while Vila Nova averages fewer at 3.6. Shot data shows Londrina's higher volume and shots on target, reflecting offensive intent. Card averages are similar, with Vila Nova slightly higher, suggesting a competitive but disciplined match environment.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vila Nova1.2
Avg goals scored
Londrina2
Vila Nova1.2
Avg goals conceded
Londrina1
Vila Nova20%
BTTS rate
Londrina60%
Vila Nova20%
Over 2.5 goals
Londrina80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Goals and BTTS trends suggest a cautious game; Vila Nova's low over 2.5 goals rate of 20% contrasts with Londrina's 80%, showing Londrina's matches are more open. Vila Nova's low BTTS rate of 20% versus Londrina's 60% indicates Londrina's games often see both teams scoring, supporting the likelihood of goals but also defensive resilience from Vila Nova.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionLondrina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The Londrina or Draw market is priced attractively with a 2.3 , reflecting a 43.5% implied chance, while the model estimates a 63.7% chance, indicating strong value. This discrepancy highlights the market underestimating Londrina's ability to avoid defeat, making the double chance a price-sensitive positive value bet with good .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vila Nova

WDWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
18 Sep 2026H America Mineiro1-0
15 Sep 2026A Avai1-1
10 Sep 2026H Goias2-0
05 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-5
30 Aug 2026H Ceara2-0

Londrina

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
20 Sep 2026H Fortaleza EC1-2
15 Sep 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
10 Sep 2026A São Bernardo2-1
06 Sep 2026H Operario-PR1-2
01 Sep 2026H Juventude0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Londrina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Recent form data shows Vila Nova with 10 points and 1.2 goals per game, reflecting solid but not prolific scoring. Londrina has 7 points with a higher goals-for average of 2.0, indicating more attacking output. Londrina's form suggests resilience and scoring ability, supporting the double chance pick against Vila Nova's steadier but less explosive recent results.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Vila Nova wins
2Draws
4Londrina wins
31 May 2026Londrina v Vila Nova0-1
10 Nov 2023Vila Nova v Londrina4-1
15 Jul 2023Londrina v Vila Nova1-0
12 Aug 2022Vila Nova v Londrina0-0
29 Apr 2022Londrina v Vila Nova2-2
20 Nov 2021Vila Nova v Londrina2-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head record over 10 matches shows an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately competitive fixtures. While Vila Nova has home advantage, Londrina's previous meetings suggest they can contain Vila Nova's attack and capitalize on chances, providing some support for the double chance selection but with moderate weight compared to current form and season data.
Season team stats

Serie B

Vila Nova30
Played
Londrina30
Vila Nova1.4
Avg goals for
Londrina1.3
Vila Nova1
Avg goals against
Londrina1.4
Vila Nova11
Clean sheets
Londrina7
Best odds for this sectionLondrina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Londrina to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Vila Nova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Season stats reveal Vila Nova as the top-ranked team with strong defensive and offensive balance, conceding and scoring 1.2 goals per game. Londrina, ranked 18th, scores 2.0 goals but concedes fewer at 1.0, showing a more attack-oriented but defensively capable side. These profiles support Londrina's chance to avoid defeat through effective counter-attacks and defensive organization.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Vila Nova5430166812
18Londrina28307716-4
The standings show Vila Nova leading the league with 51 points, emphasizing their quality and home strength. Londrina's 18th position with 28 points highlights their relegation battle and need for points. This context adds pressure on Londrina to secure at least a draw, reinforcing the tactical approach likely to prioritize defensive solidity and counter-attacks.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Vila Nova Over 2.5
80%Londrina Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Londrina's games have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating open, attacking encounters. Vila Nova's matches show only a 20% rate, suggesting tighter games. The average goals in their last 10 head-to-head matches is 2.2, supporting a moderate tempo with chances for goals from both sides, influenced by Londrina's attacking impetus and Vila Nova's defensive caution.

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