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Operario-PR crestOperario-PR
v
Ceara crestCeara

Serie B | Sat 26 Sep, 20:30

Operario-PR v Ceara Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Operario-PR hosts Ceara in a Serie B clash where Operario-PR's recent form and league standing provide a strong foundation for . Sitting 5th with 47 points, Operario-PR have been scoring at a higher rate and conceding fewer goals than Ceara, who are 15th with 35 points. Both teams have shown a tendency for matches with over 2.5 goals, but Operario-PR's home performances and defensive solidity give them an edge in this encounter. Ceara's struggle to convert chances consistently and their lower league position add to Operario-PR's advantage in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Operario-PR to Win

  • Operario-PR ranks 5th with 47 points, Ceara 15th with 35 points
  • Operario-PR averages 2.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game
  • Ceara scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.4 on average
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches
  • Operario-PR averages fewer corners but maintains defensive discipline

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Operario-PR to win with a 69.4% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, higher league position, and better goal-scoring and defensive stats. Operario-PR's ability to score more goals while conceding fewer than Ceara supports this prediction. The at 2.1 offer positive value given the model's implied chance of 47.6%. This pick is supported by consistent attacking output and defensive resilience, making Operario-PR the likely winner in this Serie B fixture.

Model Chance69.4%
Strong positive
Implied Chance from Odds47.6%
Positive
Value Edge21.8%
Strong positive
Operario-PR Goals For2.2 per game
Positive
Operario-PR Goals Against1 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Operario-PR's superior league position and recent scoring form make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their defensive stability combined with effective attacking players provides a tactical advantage over Ceara, who have struggled to maintain consistency this season.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Operario-PR's balanced attack and solid defense create a strong platform for a home win, especially against a Ceara side that has shown vulnerability in both areas this season.”

Key Data Signals

Operario-PR to Win evidence

Operario-PR ranks 5th with 47 points, Ceara 15th with 35 points

Operario-PR averages 2.2 goals scored and 1 conceded per game

Ceara scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.4 on average

Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals in recent matches

What To Watch In The Data

Operario-PR to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, both teams have maintained a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals games, suggesting a trend toward open, attacking football.
  • The average goals per match in their recent head-to-head is 2, indicating a moderate scoring tempo that could increase given current form and tactical setups.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Operario-PR2.2
Avg goals scored
Ceara1.2
Operario-PR1
Avg goals conceded
Ceara1.4
Operario-PR60%
BTTS rate
Ceara80%
Operario-PR60%
Over 2.5 goals
Ceara60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating an open game with attacking intent. Operario-PR's higher scoring average and Ceara's defensive concessions suggest goals are likely, supporting a lively match with both teams potentially scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The for Operario-PR to win at 2.1 present a positive value opportunity given the model's 69.4% win probability. This discrepancy indicates the market may be underestimating Operario-PR's chances, making this a price-sensitive selection worth backing.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Operario-PR1.6
Avg corners for
Ceara5.8
Operario-PR10.6
Avg total corners
Ceara11.8
Operario-PR3.2
Avg yellow cards
Ceara2.8
Operario-PR11.2
Avg shots
Ceara14
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 62% · edge +6.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Ceara averages significantly more corners (5.8) than Operario-PR (1.6), reflecting their attacking pressure from wide areas. However, Operario-PR maintain a higher defensive discipline with slightly more yellow cards, indicating a controlled but physical approach. Shot data shows Ceara takes more shots but Operario-PR's defense limits quality chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Operario-PR

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
22 Sep 2026A Criciuma2-0
15 Sep 2026A Nautico Recife3-3
10 Sep 2026H CRB3-0
06 Sep 2026A Londrina2-1
31 Aug 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1

Ceara

WDLWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
19 Sep 2026H Novorizontino2-1
13 Sep 2026A Fortaleza EC1-1
10 Sep 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-2
05 Sep 2026H Sport Recife2-1
30 Aug 2026A Vila Nova0-2
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Operario-PR's recent form shows 11 points gained with a strong goal difference, reflecting effective attack and defense. Ceara's 7 points and lower scoring rate highlight struggles in maintaining momentum. This form disparity favors Operario-PR to control the match and secure the win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Operario-PR wins
1Draws
1Ceara wins
31 May 2026Ceara v Operario-PR1-2
08 Sep 2024Ceara v Operario-PR2-1
19 May 2024Operario-PR v Ceara0-0
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The three recent meetings between these teams have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating moderately competitive encounters. While the sample is limited, the data suggests a balanced historical contest, though current form and league position favor Operario-PR in this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie B

Operario-PR29
Played
Ceara29
Operario-PR1.4
Avg goals for
Ceara1.1
Operario-PR1.2
Avg goals against
Ceara1.3
Operario-PR11
Clean sheets
Ceara5
Market aligned with main pickOperario-PR to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Operario-PR Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Operario-PR's season statistics reveal a potent attack averaging 2.2 goals per game and a solid defense conceding just 1 goal per match. Ceara's lower scoring and higher concession rates underline their defensive vulnerabilities, reinforcing Operario-PR's advantage.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
5Operario-PR472913885
15Ceara35299812-6
Operario-PR's 5th place standing with 47 points contrasts sharply with Ceara's 15th place and 35 points, indicating a significant gap in season-long performance and consistency. This league context supports Operario-PR's role as favorites in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Operario-PR Over 2.5
60%Ceara Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, both teams have maintained a 60% rate of Over 2.5 Goals games, suggesting a trend toward open, attacking football. The average goals per match in their recent head-to-head is 2, indicating a moderate scoring tempo that could increase given current form and tactical setups.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.