Nautico Recife

Sport Recife

Serie B | Sat 26 Sep, 20:30

Nautico Recife v Sport Recife Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nautico Recife and Sport Recife meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Nautico Recife, positioned 14th, has conceded 1.8 goals per game, while Sport Recife, 9th in the table, allows 1.4 goals on average. Both teams have an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting open games and offensive commitment. Recent form shows similar goal-scoring output, with each averaging 1.4 goals per match. This fixture promises a lively encounter with tactical openness and goal-scoring opportunities at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
Nautico Recife concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
Sport Recife averages 14.8 shots and 3.6 shots on target per game, showing attacking threat.
Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 across 10 matches, supporting goal potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 65.1% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating positive value. Both teams exhibit attacking profiles with high shot volumes and goal concession rates, supporting an open game scenario. The high Over 2.5 rate of 80% for both sides this season and a 2.7 average goals per game in their recent head-to-head further reinforce the likelihood of a high-scoring match. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance65.1%

Strong positive

Market Implied Chance55.6%

Positive

Over 2.5 Rate Both Teams80%

Strong positive

Head-to-Head Average Goals2.7

Positive

Shots per Game (Nautico Recife)17.2

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and competitive Serie B fixture with both Nautico Recife and Sport Recife showing attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. The high volume of shots and recent goal trends suggest Over 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection, reflecting the likelihood of multiple scoring opportunities and an engaging match.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two sides with attacking tendencies and defensive gaps, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical expectation given their recent scoring patterns and head-to-head history.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Nautico Recife concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Sport Recife averages 14.8 shots and 3.6 shots on target per game, showing attacking threat.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.7 across 10 matches, supporting goal potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a history of open, goal-filled games.
This trend, combined with recent form and season stats, suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, driven by offensive intent and defensive gaps on both sides.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Nautico Recife6.2

Avg corners for

Sport Recife5

Nautico Recife9.8

Avg total corners

Sport Recife10.8

Nautico Recife2

Avg yellow cards

Sport Recife1.6

Nautico Recife17.2

Avg shots

Sport Recife14.8

Best odds for this sectionOver 5.5 CardsBetUK guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Nautico Recife averages 6.2 corners and 17.2 shots per game, while Sport Recife averages 5 corners and 14.8 shots, indicating sustained attacking pressure from both sides. Discipline-wise, Nautico Recife averages 2 yellows and Sport Recife 1.6, suggesting moderate fouling that could lead to set-piece opportunities and influence the flow of the match.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nautico Recife1.4

Avg goals scored

Sport Recife1.4

Nautico Recife1.8

Avg goals conceded

Sport Recife1.4

Nautico Recife60%

BTTS rate

Sport Recife80%

Nautico Recife80%

Over 2.5 goals

Sport Recife80%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 56% · edge +9.5 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%

Check odds @ 2

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, with Nautico Recife conceding 1.8 goals per game and Sport Recife 1.4. Their head-to-head average of 2.7 goals per match supports the expectation of an open game with goals at both ends, aligning well with the BTTS and goals market context.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 56% · edge +9.5 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

Check odds @ 3

Nautico Recife to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.8 with a of 65.1%, indicating positive value. The market's implied chance of 55.6% suggests bettors may be underestimating the likelihood of multiple goals, making this a price-sensitive opportunity worth considering.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nautico Recife

LDLWW

Last 52W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 5D 2L

22 Sep 2026A Cuiaba0-3

15 Sep 2026H Operario-PR3-3

10 Sep 2026A America Mineiro1-2

04 Sep 2026H Botafogo SP1-0

29 Aug 2026H Athletic Club2-1

Sport Recife

WLWLL

Last 52W 0D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 105W 1D 4L

19 Sep 2026H Juventude2-1

16 Sep 2026A CRB1-2

11 Sep 2026H Ponte Preta2-0

05 Sep 2026A Ceara1-2

29 Aug 2026A Novorizontino1-2

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 64% · edge +4.4 pts

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Nautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 55%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

Check odds @ 3

Nautico Recife to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Recent form data shows both teams averaging 1.4 goals per game, with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reflecting consistent attacking output. Nautico Recife's 7 points and Sport Recife's 6 points in recent matches indicate competitive momentum, supporting the likelihood of an open, goal-rich encounter.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Nautico Recife wins

3Draws

4Sport Recife wins

31 May 2026Sport Recife v Nautico Recife2-0

08 Mar 2026Nautico Recife v Sport Recife0-3

01 Mar 2026Sport Recife v Nautico Recife3-3

18 Jan 2026Nautico Recife v Sport Recife4-0

15 Feb 2025Sport Recife v Nautico Recife1-2

06 Apr 2024Sport Recife v Nautico Recife0-0

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 56% · edge +9.5 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

Check odds @ 3

Nautico Recife to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

The 10 previous meetings between Nautico Recife and Sport Recife have averaged 2.7 goals per game, demonstrating a historical tendency for matches with multiple goals. This head-to-head record supports the expectation of an open game with scoring opportunities for both teams, lending weight to the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

Season team stats

Serie B

Nautico Recife29

Played

Sport Recife29

Nautico Recife1.2

Avg goals for

Sport Recife1.3

Nautico Recife1.2

Avg goals against

Sport Recife1

Nautico Recife8

Clean sheets

Sport Recife10

Best odds for this sectionNautico Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 55% vs implied 48% · edge +7.3 pts

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

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Sport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%

Check odds @ 3

Nautico Recife to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

Sport Recife Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Season-long statistics reveal Nautico Recife concedes 1.8 goals per game and Sport Recife 1.4, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams maintain high shot volumes and an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reinforcing the trend towards matches with multiple goals and supporting the selection of Over 2.5 Goals.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
9	Sport Recife	44	29	11	11	7	10
14	Nautico Recife	38	29	10	8	11	-1

Sport Recife sits 9th with 44 points, while Nautico Recife is 14th with 38 points, showing a moderate gap but similar offensive profiles. The standings suggest both teams have motivation to secure points, likely encouraging attacking play and contributing to the potential for a high-scoring match.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Nautico Recife Over 2.5

80%Sport Recife Over 2.5

2.7H2H avg goals

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a history of open, goal-filled games. This trend, combined with recent form and season stats, suggests a tempo and style conducive to Over 2.5 Goals, driven by offensive intent and defensive gaps on both sides.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Nautico Recife v Sport Recife Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Nautico Recife

Sport Recife

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Football Stats Hub

Nautico Recife v Sport Recife Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Nautico Recife

Sport Recife

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