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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino
v
São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo

Serie B | Fri 25 Sep, 23:30

Novorizontino v São Bernardo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 24 Sep 2026, 07:58 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Novorizontino and São Bernardo meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities. Novorizontino ranks third with strong recent form, while São Bernardo sits twelfth but remains competitive. Novorizontino's high pressing and offensive volume contrast with São Bernardo's resilience and counter-attacking threat, setting up a dynamic encounter with goal-scoring opportunities at both ends. The match carries importance for Novorizontino's promotion push and São Bernardo's fight to climb the table, adding tactical urgency and intensity to the fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Novorizontino has a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent scoring and conceding.
  • São Bernardo's BTTS rate is 40%, showing moderate likelihood to score.
  • Novorizontino averages 20.2 shots and 7.4 shots on target per game, reflecting strong attacking pressure.
  • São Bernardo averages 12 shots and 4.4 shots on target, capable of creating chances.
  • Both teams have shown a willingness to attack, supporting a BTTS outcome.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, well above the 54.6% implied by current , indicating strong value. Novorizontino's perfect recent BTTS rate and high shot volume combine with São Bernardo's ability to create chances and score, despite a lower BTTS rate. The attacking profiles and defensive concessions of both teams suggest a match where goals at both ends are probable. No data limitations affect this prediction, and the price reflects a positive , justifying a standard stake.

Novorizontino BTTS Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
São Bernardo BTTS Rate40% recent matches
Positive
Shot Volume Novorizontino20.2 shots per game
Strong positive
Shot Volume São Bernardo12 shots per game
Positive
Model Confidence88%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, making a Both Teams to Score outcome tactically plausible. Novorizontino's aggressive attacking style combined with São Bernardo's capacity to create chances supports the likelihood of goals at both ends. The data confirms this with strong shot and BTTS rates, making the BTTS market a sensible choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS market rationale

“Novorizontino's relentless attacking and São Bernardo's opportunistic offense create a fertile ground for goals from both sides, making the BTTS market a compelling angle in this Serie B encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Novorizontino has a 100% BTTS rate in recent matches, indicating consistent scoring and conceding.

São Bernardo's BTTS rate is 40%, showing moderate likelihood to score.

Novorizontino averages 20.2 shots and 7.4 shots on target per game, reflecting strong attacking pressure.

São Bernardo averages 12 shots and 4.4 shots on target, capable of creating chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last five matches, Novorizontino has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • São Bernardo's 40% rate is lower but still notable.
  • Their four head-to-head meetings average 2 goals per game, suggesting a moderately open fixture.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Novorizontino8
Avg corners for
São Bernardo5.6
Novorizontino12.4
Avg total corners
São Bernardo11.4
Novorizontino1.8
Avg yellow cards
São Bernardo1.4
Novorizontino20.2
Avg shots
São Bernardo12
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 69% · edge -0.4 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Novorizontino averages 8 corners and 1.8 yellow cards per game, reflecting sustained attacking pressure and moderate fouling. São Bernardo's 5.6 corners and 1.4 yellows indicate a less aggressive but still active approach. The shot data shows Novorizontino's control with 20.2 shots and 7.4 on target, while São Bernardo's 12 shots and 4.4 on target confirm their ability to create chances, supporting a lively match with set-piece and shot opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Novorizontino2
Avg goals scored
São Bernardo1.4
Novorizontino1.2
Avg goals conceded
São Bernardo0.8
Novorizontino100%
BTTS rate
São Bernardo40%
Novorizontino80%
Over 2.5 goals
São Bernardo40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Novorizontino's recent matches show a 100% BTTS rate and an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open games with multiple goals. São Bernardo's 40% BTTS and 40% Over 2.5 rates suggest less frequent but still present scoring. The average goals in their four head-to-head matches is 2, supporting a moderate goal environment with both teams likely to find the net.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
The Both Teams to Score market is attractively priced with a 21.4% , as the model's 76% chance significantly exceeds the 54.6% implied probability. This suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring, supported by Novorizontino's perfect recent BTTS record and São Bernardo's offensive potential. The offer a positive value opportunity without requiring caution on price sensitivity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Novorizontino

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Ceara1-2
13 Sep 2026H Cuiaba1-1
09 Sep 2026A Botafogo SP3-1
05 Sep 2026H Avai3-1
29 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1

São Bernardo

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
19 Sep 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-0
14 Sep 2026A America Mineiro2-0
10 Sep 2026H Londrina1-2
06 Sep 2026A Ponte Preta2-0
28 Aug 2026A Goias1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Novorizontino to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Novorizontino's recent form includes 10 points with a perfect BTTS record and a high Over 2.5 Goals rate of 80%, showing consistent attacking output and defensive lapses. São Bernardo has 9 points with a 40% BTTS rate, indicating less frequent scoring but still capable of goals. The form data suggests Novorizontino's matches are more open, but São Bernardo's resilience keeps them competitive, reinforcing the Both Teams to Score angle.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Novorizontino wins
2Draws
0São Bernardo wins
31 May 2026São Bernardo v Novorizontino1-1
10 Apr 2026Novorizontino v São Bernardo1-0
07 Feb 2026Novorizontino v São Bernardo2-1
06 Feb 2025São Bernardo v Novorizontino1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Novorizontino to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The four recent head-to-head matches between Novorizontino and São Bernardo have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating a balanced scoring environment. While the sample is limited, it shows neither side dominates defensively, supporting the possibility of goals from both teams. This historical context complements the current form and season data, reinforcing the likelihood of a BTTS outcome in this fixture.
Season team stats

Serie B

Novorizontino29
Played
São Bernardo29
Novorizontino1.7
Avg goals for
São Bernardo1.4
Novorizontino0.9
Avg goals against
São Bernardo1.1
Novorizontino9
Clean sheets
São Bernardo8
Best odds for this sectionSão Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
São Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
6.25
Check odds @ 6.25
Novorizontino Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Novorizontino to WinBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over the season, Novorizontino averages 2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, reflecting a strong attack paired with some defensive vulnerability. São Bernardo scores 1.4 and concedes 0.8 on average, showing a more balanced but less prolific profile. These season stats support a scenario where Novorizontino's offense can breach São Bernardo's defense, while São Bernardo's scoring ability makes a clean sheet unlikely for Novorizontino.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Novorizontino5029148722
12São Bernardo4129118109
Novorizontino sits third in Serie B with 50 points, pushing for promotion, while São Bernardo is twelfth with 41 points, aiming to improve their position. The standings reflect Novorizontino's stronger form and attacking ambition, while São Bernardo's mid-table status suggests a competitive but less dominant approach. This context supports a match where Novorizontino seeks to impose offensively, increasing the chance of goals at both ends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Novorizontino Over 2.5
40%São Bernardo Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last five matches, Novorizontino has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating frequent high-scoring games. São Bernardo's 40% rate is lower but still notable. Their four head-to-head meetings average 2 goals per game, suggesting a moderately open fixture. The trend data points to a match with a decent tempo and goal-scoring chances for both teams, aligning with the BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals markets.

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