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Novorizontino crestNovorizontino
v
São Bernardo crestSão Bernardo

Serie B | Fri 25 Sep, 23:30

Novorizontino v São Bernardo Stats

Data last updated: Fri 16 Oct 2026, 14:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Novorizontino face São Bernardo in Serie B on Fri 25 Sep, 23:30. The handicap offers cover for a narrow win, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture and recent scoring patterns. Novorizontino's consistent scoring and strong home record support a 1-0 win, despite São Bernardo's decent away form.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Novorizontino Asian Handicap -0

  • At 4/7, Novorizontino Asian Handicap -0 implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 34%.
  • Novorizontino vs São Bernardo: Promotion Push Meets a Dangerous Away Record.
  • Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for São Bernardo.
  • São Bernardo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Novorizontino Asian Handicap -0 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Novorizontino sit 2 in the table, while São Bernardo sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Novorizontino Asian Handicap -0 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 34% (-29.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.83.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 34% for Novorizontino Asian Handicap -0 sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for São Bernardo. Novorizontino vs São Bernardo: Promotion Push Meets a Dangerous Away Record.

Model chance vs price34% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
São Bernardo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
Novorizontino vs São Bernardo: Promotion Push Meets a Dangerous.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: São Bernardo Win is the preferred angle because novorizontino vs São Bernardo: Promotion Push Meets a Dangerous Away Record. Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for São Bernardo. Their attack is producing consistently, but opponents are finding opportunities too.

Main risk

Their attack is producing consistently, but opponents are finding opportunities too.

Key Data Signals

Novorizontino Asian Handicap -0 evidence

Novorizontino vs São Bernardo: Promotion Push Meets a Dangerous Away Record.

Novorizontino have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 9 for São Bernardo.

São Bernardo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the São Bernardo Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Novorizontino sit 2 in the table, while São Bernardo sit 12, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Novorizontino Asian Handicap -0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Novorizontino2
    Avg goals scored
    São Bernardo1.4
    Novorizontino1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    São Bernardo0.8
    Novorizontino100%
    BTTS rate
    São Bernardo40%
    Novorizontino80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    São Bernardo40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    Novorizontino v São Bernardo predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSão Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
    3.55
    Check odds @ 3.55
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    São Bernardo to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Novorizontino

    LDWWW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    19 Sep 2026A Ceara1-2
    13 Sep 2026H Cuiaba1-1
    09 Sep 2026A Botafogo SP3-1
    05 Sep 2026H Avai3-1
    29 Aug 2026H Sport Recife2-1

    São Bernardo

    WWLWL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    19 Sep 2026H Atletico Goianiense1-0
    14 Sep 2026A America Mineiro2-0
    10 Sep 2026H Londrina1-2
    06 Sep 2026A Ponte Preta2-0
    28 Aug 2026A Goias1-2
    Market aligned with main pickSão Bernardo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 31% vs implied 16% · edge +15 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 57%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    São Bernardo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 43%
    3.55
    Check odds @ 3.55
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Novorizontino Over 2.5
    40%São Bernardo Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Novorizontino sit at 80% and São Bernardo sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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