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Verl crestVerl
v
Hamburger SV crestHamburger SV

DFB Pokal | Mon 24 Aug, 17:00

Verl v Hamburger SV Stats

Data last updated: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 07:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Verl face Hamburger SV in DFB Pokal on Mon 24 Aug, 17:00. Hamburg's higher league status and Verl's defensive frailty favour a Hamburg win. Hamburg have won only two of their last six away matches, with three defeats in that sequence, giving Verl more encouragement than the divisional gap alone might suggest.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Hamburger SV to win and both teams to score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 40%, above the 21% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 6/4, Hamburger SV to win and both teams to score implies roughly 40%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 21%.
  • Defensive absences on both sides add to the openness.
Price warning

Hamburger SV to win and both teams to score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 40% while the model sits nearer 21% (-19.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Under 2.5 Goals shows a +15 pts edge at 2.88.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 21% for Hamburger SV to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price. Defensive absences on both sides add to the openness.

Model chance vs price21% model chance against roughly 40% implied
Negative
Defensive absences on both sides add to the openness.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -19.1 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Hamburger SV Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because defensive absences on both sides add to the openness. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Hamburger SV to win and both teams to score evidence

Defensive absences on both sides add to the openness.

What To Watch In The Data

Hamburger SV to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHamburger SV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 77% · edge -25.4 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Hamburger SV Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Verl-
Avg goals scored
Hamburger SV-
Verl-
Avg goals conceded
Hamburger SV-
Verl-
BTTS rate
Hamburger SV-
Verl-
Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV-
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 32%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Verl

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Verl yet.

Hamburger SV

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Hamburger SV yet.

Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 89% · edge -18.3 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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Hamburger SV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Verl wins
0Draws
0Hamburger SV wins
Market aligned with main pickHamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · Model 41% vs implied 68% · edge -26.6 pts
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Hamburger SV to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Season team stats

DFB Pokal

Verl0
Played
Hamburger SV0
Verl0
Avg goals for
Hamburger SV0
Verl0
Avg goals against
Hamburger SV0
Verl0
Clean sheets
Hamburger SV0
Market aligned with main pickHamburger SV Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 77% · edge -25.4 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Load more odds for this section
Hamburger SV to WinBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Season data supports Hamburger SV Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Verl Over 2.5
-Hamburger SV Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Defensive absences on both sides add to the openness.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Verl v Hamburger SV prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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