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Al-Ahli Jeddah crestAl-Ahli Jeddah
v
Al-Nassr crestAl-Nassr

Pro League | Thu 15 Oct, 19:00

Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Nassr Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Nassr hosts Al-Ahli Jeddah in a high-stakes Pro League clash where momentum and ambition collide. Al-Nassr arrives with an imposing 19-match winning streak and near-perfect home record, blending attacking firepower with defensive discipline under Jorge Jesus. However, Al-Ahli, fresh from continental success and led by league top scorer Ivan Toney, bring a potent counterpunch and have already beaten Al-Nassr this season. This fixture promises a tactical battle between Al-Nassr's possession control and Al-Ahli's transition threat, with both sides capable of goals and drama in Riyadh.

BT4Y best bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Al-Ahli Jeddah have scored in all recent matches, with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in their last five games.
  • Ivan Toney leads the league with 27 goals, posing a constant threat to Al-Nassr's defence.
  • Al-Nassr boasts a 19-match winning streak and a strong home record with 13 wins from 14 games.
  • Previous meetings average 3.4 goals per game, indicating a high-scoring trend between these teams.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees value in Al-Ahli Jeddah winning combined with Over 2.5 Goals at 3.0 , supported by their strong attacking output led by Ivan Toney and recent form showing consistent goal scoring. Al-Nassr's defensive resilience is challenged by Al-Ahli's ability to score, as evidenced by their previous victory and high goals-per-game averages. The model is moderate at 48%, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture and the balance between Al-Nassr's home control and Al-Ahli's attacking threat.

Model Chance34.6% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+1.3 pts)
Positive
Implied Probability34.6% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+1.3 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge34.6% model chance vs 33.3% implied (+1.3 pts)
Positive
Confidence Level48%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking prowess, spearheaded by Ivan Toney, combined with their recent continental success, gives them the belief to challenge Al-Nassr's control. Despite Al-Nassr's formidable home form, Al-Ahli's ability to score and previous win over the hosts suggests a high-scoring upset is plausible in this intense encounter.

Main risk

Al-Ahli, however, bring unpredictability.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and attacking threat

“Al-Ahli's blend of clinical finishing and tactical unpredictability makes them a genuine threat to Al-Nassr's home fortress, promising an open, goal-filled contest that could defy the .”

Key Data Signals

Al-Ahli Jeddah Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Al-Ahli Jeddah have scored in all recent matches, with a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in their last five games.

Ivan Toney leads the league with 27 goals, posing a constant threat to Al-Nassr's defence.

Al-Nassr boasts a 19-match winning streak and a strong home record with 13 wins from 14 games.

Previous meetings average 3.4 goals per game, indicating a high-scoring trend between these teams.

What To Watch In The Data

Al-Ahli Jeddah Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.4, indicating a trend towards high-scoring encounters.
  • This sample suggests a fast tempo and open play, with both teams contributing goals regularly, reinforcing the expectation for Over 2.5 Goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Ahli Jeddah2.8
Avg goals scored
Al-Nassr1.8
Al-Ahli Jeddah1.4
Avg goals conceded
Al-Nassr1
Al-Ahli Jeddah40%
BTTS rate
Al-Nassr80%
Al-Ahli Jeddah100%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Nassr80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 26%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Both teams have demonstrated strong scoring records, with Al-Ahli averaging 2.8 goals and Al-Nassr 1.8 per game recently. Al-Nassr's 80% BTTS rate and Al-Ahli's 40% indicate a good chance both sides will score, supporting the expectation of a lively, goal-rich match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl-Ahli Jeddah to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 35% · edge +9.8 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 34.6% for Al-Ahli Jeddah Win & Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 33.3% implied by the current price (+1.3 pts). Only three goals have been conceded by Al-Nassr in their most recent six fixtures.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Ahli Jeddah

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 3L
09 Oct 2026A Al-Fateh4-0
11 Sep 2026H Al-Hazm3-1
08 Sep 2026A Al-Qadisiyah FC2-3
04 Sep 2026H Al Riyadh5-0
01 Sep 2026A Al-Hilal Saudi FC0-3

Al-Nassr

WDWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 1L
09 Oct 2026H Al Diriyah3-0
12 Sep 2026A Al Khaleej Saihat1-1
09 Sep 2026H Abha2-1
05 Sep 2026A Al-Ittihad FC1-2
28 Aug 2026H Al Taawon2-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 60% · edge +14 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Al-Ahli Jeddah to WinBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Al-Ahli Jeddah Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent form is impressive, securing 9 points in their last matches with a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating consistent attacking output. Al-Nassr also shows strong form with 10 points and an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but Al-Ahli's momentum and scoring consistency suggest they can challenge the home side effectively.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Al-Ahli Jeddah Over 2.5
80%Al-Nassr Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.4, indicating a trend towards high-scoring encounters. This sample suggests a fast tempo and open play, with both teams contributing goals regularly, reinforcing the expectation for Over 2.5 Goals in this match.

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