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Orlando City SC crestOrlando City SC
v
FC Cincinnati crestFC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer | Sun 16 Aug, 00:30

Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features Orlando City SC hosting FC Cincinnati, with Cincinnati currently sixth in the standings and Orlando tenth. Cincinnati arrives with stronger recent form, having collected 10 points in their last matches compared to Orlando's 7. Cincinnati's attack has been more productive, averaging 3.6 goals per game recently, while Orlando has struggled to score consistently. The match carries importance for Cincinnati to maintain their playoff push, while Orlando seeks to close the gap. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be key in this competitive encounter under neutral venue conditions.

BT4Y best bet

FC Cincinnati to Win

  • FC Cincinnati ranks 6th with 26 points, Orlando City SC 10th with 20 points.
  • Cincinnati averages 3.6 goals per game recently, Orlando 2.0 goals.
  • Cincinnati has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, Orlando 60%.
  • Cincinnati's recent form yields 10 points versus Orlando's 7 points.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.8 over 10 matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors FC Cincinnati to win with a strong 63.7% chance, reflecting their superior recent scoring form and league position. Cincinnati's attack is more potent, averaging 3.6 goals recently with a perfect Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating offensive momentum. Orlando's defense concedes slightly fewer goals but lacks the firepower to outscore Cincinnati. The price at 2.88 offers positive value given the model's implied chance of 34.7%. No data limitations affect , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability63.7%
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored (Cincinnati)3.6 per game
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored (Orlando)2.0 per game
Negative
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Cincinnati)100%
Strong positive
League PositionCincinnati 6th vs Orlando 10th
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Cincinnati's recent offensive form and higher league standing make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their consistent goal output contrasts with Orlando's less prolific attack, suggesting Cincinnati can control the match tempo and convert chances effectively.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“FC Cincinnati's attacking momentum and league position give them a clear edge in this matchup, especially given Orlando's inconsistent scoring. Their ability to sustain pressure and finish chances should prove decisive.”

Key Data Signals

FC Cincinnati to Win evidence

FC Cincinnati ranks 6th with 26 points, Orlando City SC 10th with 20 points.

Cincinnati averages 3.6 goals per game recently, Orlando 2.0 goals.

Cincinnati has a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, Orlando 60%.

Cincinnati's recent form yields 10 points versus Orlando's 7 points.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Cincinnati to Win notes

  • Recent trends over the last 10 matches show an average of 2.8 goals per game between these teams, with a strong Over 2.5 Goals pattern especially from Cincinnati's side.
  • This suggests a fast tempo and open play style, increasing the likelihood of multiple scoring opportunities and a high-scoring match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Orlando City SC2
Avg goals scored
FC Cincinnati3.6
Orlando City SC2
Avg goals conceded
FC Cincinnati2.4
Orlando City SC60%
BTTS rate
FC Cincinnati100%
Orlando City SC60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Cincinnati100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 88% vs implied 94% · edge -5.5 pts
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Both teams show contrasting goal trends: Cincinnati boasts a perfect 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, reflecting high-scoring matches, while Orlando's 60% rate is more moderate. BTTS is also more frequent with Cincinnati, indicating open games with offensive intent. The average 2.8 goals in their last 10 meetings supports expectations for a lively, goal-filled encounter.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Cincinnati to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The 2.88 for FC Cincinnati to win represent a positive value opportunity as the model estimates a 63.7% chance of victory, significantly higher than the implied 34.7% chance from the price. This discrepancy highlights a market underestimation of Cincinnati's current form and offensive strength, making the bet price-sensitive and attractive for standard stakes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Orlando City SC4.2
Avg corners for
FC Cincinnati3.5
Orlando City SC9.6
Avg total corners
FC Cincinnati9.25
Orlando City SC2
Avg yellow cards
FC Cincinnati1.75
Orlando City SC14.2
Avg shots
FC Cincinnati13
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 52% · edge +3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Orlando City SC averages slightly more corners per game (4.2) than Cincinnati (3.5), suggesting a modest territorial edge. However, Cincinnati averages more shots on target (7) compared to Orlando's 5.6, indicating better finishing opportunities. Both teams maintain disciplined card profiles, with Orlando averaging 2 yellows and Cincinnati 1.75, suggesting a competitive but controlled match environment.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Orlando City SC

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
02 Aug 2026A New York Red Bulls2-3
26 Jul 2026H Nashville SC1-0
23 Jul 2026A San Jose Earthquakes4-0
24 May 2026A FC Cincinnati2-6
17 May 2026H Atlanta United FC1-1

FC Cincinnati

WLWWD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
02 Aug 2026H San Jose Earthquakes4-2
26 Jul 2026A Columbus Crew1-2
23 Jul 2026H Vancouver Whitecaps4-3
24 May 2026H Orlando City SC6-2
17 May 2026A San Diego3-3
Market aligned with main pickFC Cincinnati to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
FC Cincinnati's recent form is stronger, accumulating 10 points compared to Orlando's 7 in recent matches. Cincinnati's higher goal scoring rate and consistent point collection reflect momentum and , which are critical in maintaining pressure and converting chances in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Orlando City SC wins
2Draws
5FC Cincinnati wins
24 May 2026FC Cincinnati v Orlando City SC6-2
11 Feb 2026Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati3-2
29 Sep 2025FC Cincinnati v Orlando City SC1-1
29 Jun 2025Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati1-2
06 Oct 2024FC Cincinnati v Orlando City SC1-3
05 May 2024Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati0-1
Market aligned with main pickFC Cincinnati to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The head-to-head record over 10 matches reveals an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating moderately high-scoring encounters. While the sample size is reasonable, the data suggests neither team dominates decisively, making recent form and current season performance more relevant for predicting the outcome.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Orlando City SC19
Played
FC Cincinnati18
Orlando City SC1.6
Avg goals for
FC Cincinnati2.5
Orlando City SC2.5
Avg goals against
FC Cincinnati2.4
Orlando City SC2
Clean sheets
FC Cincinnati2
Market aligned with main pickFC Cincinnati to WinBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over the season, FC Cincinnati's offensive output and defensive record position them as the more balanced side, with a better points tally and goal difference. Orlando City SC's stats show a less consistent attack and defense, which may hinder their ability to secure a positive result against a higher-ranked opponent.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6FC Cincinnati27197661
10Orlando City SC21196310-17
The league standings show FC Cincinnati in 6th place with 26 points, comfortably ahead of Orlando City SC in 10th with 20 points. This gap underscores Cincinnati's stronger campaign and playoff positioning, adding pressure on Orlando to perform while giving Cincinnati to control the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Orlando City SC Over 2.5
100%FC Cincinnati Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
Recent trends over the last 10 matches show an average of 2.8 goals per game between these teams, with a strong Over 2.5 Goals pattern especially from Cincinnati's side. This suggests a fast tempo and open play style, increasing the likelihood of multiple scoring opportunities and a high-scoring match.

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