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Vasco DA Gama crestVasco DA Gama
v
Santos crestSantos

Serie A | Sun 16 Aug, 20:00

Vasco DA Gama v Santos Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vasco DA Gama and Santos meet in a Serie A clash where both teams are under pressure near the relegation zone, each with 22 points. Vasco DA Gama has struggled offensively, scoring just 0.2 goals per game recently, while Santos shows more attacking intent with 1.6 goals per game. Both sides have shown tendencies to create set-piece opportunities, and with their defensive vulnerabilities, this match is likely to feature sustained pressure and territorial battles that could generate numerous corners. The tactical setup suggests an open contest with frequent wide play and crosses, increasing corner chances.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Vasco DA Gama averages 5.2 corners per game, Santos 6.6, combining for over 11 on average.
  • Recent form shows Santos with a higher attacking output, likely increasing corner opportunities.
  • Both teams rank low in the table, suggesting aggressive play to avoid relegation pressure.
  • Player stats indicate active wide attackers and midfielders who win fouls and create set-piece chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a positive value bet with a 64.7% chance against an implied market chance of 57.8%, offering a 6.9% . Both teams generate a high volume of corners per match, supported by active wide players and sustained attacking pressure. The match context of two teams fighting relegation adds urgency, likely increasing attacking intensity and set-piece frequency. No data limitations reduce , making this a solid corners market selection with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance64.7%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57.8%
Positive
Value Edge6.9%
Strong positive
Recent Corner AveragesVasco DA Gama 5.2, Santos 6.6
Strong positive
Player Involvement in Set PiecesHigh
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with frequent wide attacks and set-piece situations as Vasco DA Gama and Santos push for points near the relegation zone. Both teams' corner averages and attacking styles support a bet on Over 9.5 Corners, with tactical urgency likely to increase crossing and corner opportunities.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“This fixture features two teams desperate for points, which typically leads to increased attacking urgency and more corners. The combination of their average corner counts and tactical setups makes Over 9.5 Corners a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Vasco DA Gama averages 5.2 corners per game, Santos 6.6, combining for over 11 on average.

Recent form shows Santos with a higher attacking output, likely increasing corner opportunities.

Both teams rank low in the table, suggesting aggressive play to avoid relegation pressure.

Player stats indicate active wide attackers and midfielders who win fouls and create set-piece chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating open matches with attacking intent.
  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown tendencies for high tempo and frequent attacking transitions, which typically generate corners.
  • This trend supports the expectation of more than 9.5 corners in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vasco DA Gama0.2
Avg goals scored
Santos1.6
Vasco DA Gama1.2
Avg goals conceded
Santos2
Vasco DA Gama20%
BTTS rate
Santos80%
Vasco DA Gama20%
Over 2.5 goals
Santos80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
While Vasco DA Gama has a low scoring rate and Santos a higher one, the match is likely to feature open play and attacking attempts from both sides. Santos' 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Vasco's 20%, but the combined attacking intent and defensive frailties suggest chances and corners will be plentiful, even if goals remain modest.

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Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively with a 1.73 offering a positive of nearly 7%. The model's 64.7% chance exceeds the implied 57.8%, indicating the market underestimates corner frequency. This pricing suggests a solid opportunity without requiring movement to justify the bet.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Vasco DA Gama5.2
Avg corners for
Santos6.6
Vasco DA Gama9.6
Avg total corners
Santos10.8
Vasco DA Gama1
Avg yellow cards
Santos2.4
Vasco DA Gama17.2
Avg shots
Santos16.6
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 58% · edge +6.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams average a combined 11.8 corners per game, supported by high shot volumes (Vasco 17.2, Santos 16.6) and shots on target. Santos commits more fouls and receives more yellow cards, indicating a physical match that often leads to set-piece situations. This pressure and territorial battle underpin the high corner count.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vasco DA Gama

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
09 Aug 2026A Bahia0-0
26 Jul 2026H Mirassol1-1
16 Jul 2026A Vitoria0-1
31 May 2026H Atletico-MG0-1
25 May 2026H RB Bragantino0-3

Santos

LDLWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
09 Aug 2026H Atletico Paranaense0-2
25 Jul 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-2
16 Jul 2026A Botafogo1-2
31 May 2026H Vitoria3-1
23 May 2026A Gremio2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Santos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Recent form shows Vasco DA Gama struggling to score but maintaining corner creation, while Santos has a strong attacking output with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. Both teams' recent matches have featured multiple corners, supporting the likelihood of exceeding 9.5 corners in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Vasco DA Gama wins
1Draws
5Santos wins
26 Feb 2026Santos v Vasco DA Gama2-1
17 Aug 2025Santos v Vasco DA Gama0-6
30 Mar 2025Vasco DA Gama v Santos2-1
01 Oct 2023Santos v Vasco DA Gama4-1
14 May 2023Vasco DA Gama v Santos0-1
20 Dec 2020Vasco DA Gama v Santos1-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 56% · edge +7.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of three goals per game, reflecting open contests. While direct corner data is limited, the attacking nature of past meetings suggests sustained pressure and frequent wide play, indirectly supporting a high corner count in this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Vasco DA Gama21
Played
Santos21
Vasco DA Gama1.1
Avg goals for
Santos1.4
Vasco DA Gama1.5
Avg goals against
Santos1.7
Vasco DA Gama2
Clean sheets
Santos4
Best odds for this sectionSantos Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 58% · edge +6.7 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Load more odds for this section
Santos to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Vasco DA Gama Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Vasco DA Gama to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Season-long data confirms both teams generate high corner counts, with Vasco DA Gama averaging 5.2 and Santos 6.6 per match. Their defensive vulnerabilities and attacking styles contribute to sustained pressure and frequent set-piece situations, reinforcing the Over 9.5 Corners selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
17Santos2221579-6
18Vasco DA Gama2221579-8
Both teams sit near the bottom of the Serie A table with equal points, creating high stakes to avoid relegation. This pressure often leads to aggressive wing play and crossing to create chances, which naturally increases corner counts. The standings context supports an intense, end-to-end match with many set pieces.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5
80%Santos Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3, indicating open matches with attacking intent. Over the last five matches, both teams have shown tendencies for high tempo and frequent attacking transitions, which typically generate corners. This trend supports the expectation of more than 9.5 corners in this fixture.

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Fixture links

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