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Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo
v
Coritiba crestCoritiba

Serie A | Sun 16 Aug, 01:00

Sao Paulo v Coritiba Stats

Data last updated: Wed 09 Sep 2026, 22:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sao Paulo face Coritiba in Serie A on Sun 16 Aug, 01:00. São Paulo have won just one of their last 10 league games, losing six, which explains why their strong home record has become particularly important. São Paulo's strong home record contrasts with their recent winless streak, while Coritiba's defense concedes 1.

BT4Y match pick

São Paulo to win and both teams to score

  • At 11/4, São Paulo to win and both teams to score implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • São Paulo vs Coritiba: Morumbi Return Puts a Fragile Home Side Under the Microscope.
  • Sao Paulo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Sao Paulo on 2 and Coritiba on 4.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Sao Paulo and 40% for Coritiba.
  • São Paulo to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.8 for Sao Paulo and 0.6 for Coritiba are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for São Paulo to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Sao Paulo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Sao Paulo on 2 and Coritiba on 4. São Paulo vs Coritiba: Morumbi Return Puts a Fragile Home Side Under the Microscope.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Neutral
Sao Paulo need the result edge to pair with scoring.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
São Paulo vs Coritiba: Morumbi Return Puts a Fragile.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sao Paulo Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because são Paulo vs Coritiba: Morumbi Return Puts a Fragile Home Side Under the Microscope. Sao Paulo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Sao Paulo on 2 and Coritiba on 4. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

São Paulo to win and both teams to score evidence

São Paulo vs Coritiba: Morumbi Return Puts a Fragile Home Side Under the Microscope.

Sao Paulo need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Sao Paulo on 2 and Coritiba on 4.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 80% for Sao Paulo and 40% for Coritiba.

Sao Paulo Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.8 for Sao Paulo and 0.6 for Coritiba are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

São Paulo to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sao Paulo5.4
Avg corners for
Coritiba4.4
Sao Paulo10.2
Avg total corners
Coritiba9.6
Sao Paulo2.4
Avg yellow cards
Coritiba1
Sao Paulo12.6
Avg shots
Coritiba13.2
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 58% · edge -20.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Sao Paulo to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sao Paulo

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
08 Aug 2026A Gremio1-2
26 Jul 2026A Flamengo1-1
23 Jul 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-2
01 Jun 2026A Remo0-1
23 May 2026H Botafogo1-1

Coritiba

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
09 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-1
31 Jul 2026H Cruzeiro0-1
26 Jul 2026A RB Bragantino0-0
22 Jul 2026H Palmeiras1-3
30 May 2026A Flamengo0-3
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 86% · edge -20.2 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Sao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sao Paulo0.8
Avg goals scored
Coritiba0.6
Sao Paulo1.4
Avg goals conceded
Coritiba1.6
Sao Paulo80%
BTTS rate
Coritiba40%
Sao Paulo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Coritiba60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Sao Paulo wins
5Draws
1Coritiba wins
25 Feb 2026Coritiba v Sao Paulo0-1
27 Sep 2023Sao Paulo v Coritiba2-1
29 Apr 2023Coritiba v Sao Paulo1-1
21 Oct 2022Sao Paulo v Coritiba3-1
10 Jun 2022Coritiba v Sao Paulo1-1
23 Jan 2021Sao Paulo v Coritiba1-1
Market aligned with main pickSao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 58% · edge -20.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
The head-to-head sample gives context for Sao Paulo to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Coritiba37261079-1
10Sao Paulo332596103
Sao Paulo sit in position 10, while Coritiba sit in position 7, so table pressure belongs in the São Paulo to win and both teams to score assessment.
Season team stats

Serie A

Sao Paulo25
Played
Coritiba26
Sao Paulo1.2
Avg goals for
Coritiba1.3
Sao Paulo1.1
Avg goals against
Coritiba1.3
Sao Paulo5
Clean sheets
Coritiba6
Market aligned with main pickSao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · Model 37% vs implied 58% · edge -20.7 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Season data supports Sao Paulo to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
60%Coritiba Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sao Paulo sit at 40% and Coritiba sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.