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Sao Paulo crestSao Paulo
v
Coritiba crestCoritiba

Serie A | Sun 16 Aug, 01:00

Sao Paulo v Coritiba Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sao Paulo and Coritiba meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown moderate attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities. Sao Paulo ranks 12th with 26 points, while Coritiba is just above in 10th with 30 points, indicating a mid-table tussle with limited pressure but a desire to climb. Recent form shows Sao Paulo averaging 5.4 corners per game and Coritiba 4.4, suggesting a steady flow of set-piece opportunities. Both sides have attacking players capable of forcing defensive actions, setting the stage for a contest with frequent corner situations.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Sao Paulo averages 5.4 corners per match, Coritiba 4.4, combining for nearly 10 per game.
  • Both teams have attacking players who generate shots and pressure, increasing corner chances.
  • Recent matches show a 63.6% for Over 9.5 Corners, indicating a strong statistical trend.
  • Mid-table stakes encourage open play and territorial battles, often leading to more corners.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a value bet with a 63.6% chance against a 59.9% implied market chance, reflecting a positive edge. Both teams generate a combined average of nearly 10 corners per match, supported by active attacking players like Paulo Roberto and Ferreira who create shooting and crossing opportunities that often result in corners. The mid-table context encourages open play, increasing set-piece frequency. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , making this a solid corner market selection.

Model Chance63.6%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance59.9%
Positive
Combined Average Corners~9.8 per game
Strong positive
Attacking Player ActivityHigh shots and pressure
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained attacking pressure from both Sao Paulo and Coritiba, leading to frequent corner situations. The statistical data and player activity suggest a lively contest with territorial battles that typically produce over nine corners. This bet aligns well with the teams' playing styles and recent corner averages, making it a sensible choice for corner market bettors.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market analysis

“The corner market here reflects the tactical openness and attacking intent of both sides, with Sao Paulo and Coritiba regularly forcing defensive clearances that lead to corners. This match should see a steady flow of set-piece opportunities driven by active wide play and pressing.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Sao Paulo averages 5.4 corners per match, Coritiba 4.4, combining for nearly 10 per game.

Both teams have attacking players who generate shots and pressure, increasing corner chances.

Recent matches show a 63.6% for Over 9.5 Corners, indicating a strong statistical trend.

Mid-table stakes encourage open play and territorial battles, often leading to more corners.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.2, indicating moderately open games.
  • While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking intent evident in these fixtures also correlate with increased corner opportunities due to frequent offensive transitions and defensive gaps.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sao Paulo5.4
Avg corners for
Coritiba4.4
Sao Paulo10.2
Avg total corners
Coritiba9.6
Sao Paulo2.4
Avg yellow cards
Coritiba1
Sao Paulo12.6
Avg shots
Coritiba13.2
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 60% · edge +3.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Sao Paulo averages 5.4 corners and 12.6 shots per game, while Coritiba averages 4.4 corners and 13.2 shots, indicating active offensive play. Sao Paulo's higher yellow card average (2.4) versus Coritiba's (1.0) suggests a competitive match with fouls and set-piece opportunities. These factors combine to support a lively corner count driven by pressure and fouling.

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more Serie A analysiscards betting researchcorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Sao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced at 1.67 with a of 63.6%, indicating a small positive . The implied market chance of 59.9% suggests the price is slightly generous, making this a price-sensitive but worthwhile bet given the attacking tendencies and corner averages of both teams.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sao Paulo

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
08 Aug 2026A Gremio1-2
26 Jul 2026A Flamengo1-1
23 Jul 2026H Atletico Paranaense1-2
01 Jun 2026A Remo0-1
23 May 2026H Botafogo1-1

Coritiba

WLDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
09 Aug 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-1
31 Jul 2026H Cruzeiro0-1
26 Jul 2026A RB Bragantino0-0
22 Jul 2026H Palmeiras1-3
30 May 2026A Flamengo0-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Sao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Recent form shows Sao Paulo and Coritiba averaging close to 10 combined corners per game, with Sao Paulo at 5.4 and Coritiba at 4.4. This consistency in corner generation supports the Over 9.5 Corners bet, reflecting ongoing tactical patterns and attacking pressure in their recent matches.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sao Paulo0.8
Avg goals scored
Coritiba0.6
Sao Paulo1.4
Avg goals conceded
Coritiba1.6
Sao Paulo80%
BTTS rate
Coritiba40%
Sao Paulo40%
Over 2.5 goals
Coritiba60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
While goal scoring rates are moderate, with Sao Paulo averaging 0.8 and Coritiba 0.6 goals per game, the corner market benefits from attacking pressure rather than goal volume. Sao Paulo's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Coritiba's 40%, showing differing defensive vulnerabilities but both teams generate enough attacking actions to produce corners regardless of goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Sao Paulo wins
5Draws
1Coritiba wins
25 Feb 2026Coritiba v Sao Paulo0-1
27 Sep 2023Sao Paulo v Coritiba2-1
29 Apr 2023Coritiba v Sao Paulo1-1
21 Oct 2022Sao Paulo v Coritiba3-1
10 Jun 2022Coritiba v Sao Paulo1-1
23 Jan 2021Sao Paulo v Coritiba1-1
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Sao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The ten previous encounters between Sao Paulo and Coritiba average 2.2 goals per game, suggesting balanced contests with moderate attacking output. While goal trends are moderate, the matches often feature territorial exchanges that generate corners, providing a relevant background for the Over 9.5 Corners selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Coritiba3022868-2
12Sao Paulo26217591
Mid-table positions for Sao Paulo (12th) and Coritiba (10th) reduce relegation pressure but motivate both to secure points. This competitive balance encourages open play and territorial battles, factors that typically increase corner counts as teams push forward to gain advantage.
Season team stats

Serie A

Sao Paulo21
Played
Coritiba22
Sao Paulo1.2
Avg goals for
Coritiba1.2
Sao Paulo1.2
Avg goals against
Coritiba1.3
Sao Paulo4
Clean sheets
Coritiba6
Best odds for this sectionCoritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Coritiba to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Sao Paulo to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Sao Paulo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Season-long data reveals both teams maintain steady corner averages, with Sao Paulo's 5.4 and Coritiba's 4.4 per match. These figures reflect offensive strategies that emphasize wing play and crossing, which naturally result in corners. Defensive setups also contribute by conceding corners under pressure, reinforcing the bet's foundation.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sao Paulo Over 2.5
60%Coritiba Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.2, indicating moderately open games. While this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the tempo and attacking intent evident in these fixtures also correlate with increased corner opportunities due to frequent offensive transitions and defensive gaps.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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