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Fluminense crestFluminense
v
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 15 Oct, 01:30

Fluminense v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Thu 05 Nov 2026, 18:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fluminense face Palmeiras in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 15 Oct, 01:30. Fluminense travel to Sao Paulo under considerable pressure following three consecutive defeats, including Sunday's 2-1 home loss against Santos. Flaco Lopez's scoring threat and Fluminense's recent form slump support this low-scoring outcome, though an away goal would negate this exact score prediction.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0

  • At 4/6, Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
  • Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick.
  • Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fluminense.
  • Fluminense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 60% while the model sits nearer 33% (-27.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 2.1.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 33% for Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fluminense. Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick.

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Negative
Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Fluminense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Fluminense Win is the preferred angle because palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick. Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fluminense. However, the narrow aggregate margin ensures this all-Brazilian semi-final remains finely balanced.

Main risk

However, the narrow aggregate margin ensures this all-Brazilian semi-final remains finely balanced.

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 evidence

Palmeiras' strong home record and recent winning momentum underpin this pick.

Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 8 for Fluminense.

Fluminense have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Fluminense Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras Asian Handicap -0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Fluminense1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Palmeiras1.8
    Fluminense0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Palmeiras1
    Fluminense60%
    BTTS rate
    Palmeiras60%
    Fluminense40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Palmeiras40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Fluminense v Palmeirascorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 35% · edge -2.1 pts
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    2.6
    Check odds @ 2.6
    Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Fluminense to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Fluminense

    LWDDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    15 Sep 2026A Platense1-2
    08 Sep 2026H Platense2-0
    18 Aug 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-1
    11 Aug 2026H Independ. Rivadavia0-0
    28 May 2026H Deportivo La Guaira3-1

    Palmeiras

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 3D 2L
    16 Sep 2026A LDU de Quito2-3
    09 Sep 2026H LDU de Quito1-0
    19 Aug 2026A Cerro Porteno1-0
    12 Aug 2026H Cerro Porteno1-1
    28 May 2026H Junior4-1
    Market aligned with main pickFluminense to WinBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 35% · edge -2.1 pts
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Fluminense Over 2.5
    40%Palmeiras Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fluminense sit at 40% and Palmeiras sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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