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Fluminense crestFluminense
v
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Thu 15 Oct, 01:30

Fluminense v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Wed 14 Oct 2026, 07:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fluminense face Palmeiras in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Thu 15 Oct, 01:30. Fluminense come in with 8 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Palmeiras have 10 points and 1.8 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • At 1.8, Over 9.5 Corners implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • Palmeiras lead the corner sample at 5.4 per match, with Fluminense lower at 3.
  • Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Fluminense average 8.8 and Palmeiras average 18.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Palmeiras lead the corner sample at 5.4 per match, with Fluminense lower at 3.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Positive
Palmeiras lead the corner sample at 5.4 per match.Visible data support
Positive
Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 9.5 Corners is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Palmeiras lead the corner sample at 5.4 per match, with Fluminense lower at 3. Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Palmeiras lead the corner sample at 5.4 per match, with Fluminense lower at 3.

Corner value is stronger when the territory also produces shots: Fluminense average 8.8 and Palmeiras average 18.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Use corner averages alongside shot pressure to separate territory from real threat.
  • Check whether wide attacks are producing repeat deliveries rather than harmless possession.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Fluminense1.4
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras1.8
Fluminense0.8
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras1
Fluminense60%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras60%
Fluminense40%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
6
Check odds @ 6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Fluminense

LWDDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
15 Sep 2026A Platense1-2
08 Sep 2026H Platense2-0
18 Aug 2026A Independ. Rivadavia1-1
11 Aug 2026H Independ. Rivadavia0-0
28 May 2026H Deportivo La Guaira3-1

Palmeiras

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
16 Sep 2026A LDU de Quito2-3
09 Sep 2026H LDU de Quito1-0
19 Aug 2026A Cerro Porteno1-0
12 Aug 2026H Cerro Porteno1-1
28 May 2026H Junior4-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.8 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Palmeiras to WinBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Palmeiras Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Fluminense to WinBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Fluminense Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Fluminense Over 2.5
40%Palmeiras Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Fluminense sit at 40% and Palmeiras sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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