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Chapecoense-sc crestChapecoense-sc
v
Bahia crestBahia

Serie A | Sun 16 Aug, 15:00

Chapecoense-sc v Bahia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 15 Aug 2026, 07:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bahia arrives in strong form, sitting sixth in Serie A with 33 points, while Chapecoense-sc struggles at the bottom with just 10 points. Bahia's defensive solidity, conceding only 0.4 goals per game recently, contrasts sharply with Chapecoense-sc's leaky defense allowing 2.2 goals per match. Bahia's tactical discipline and recent momentum suggest they can control the game and exploit Chapecoense-sc's vulnerabilities, making them favorites despite the away venue. The stakes are high for Bahia to maintain their push for higher table positions, while Chapecoense-sc fights to avoid relegation.

BT4Y best bet

Bahia to Win

  • Bahia holds a 70% to win with strong recent form and defensive record
  • Chapecoense-sc concedes over 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty
  • Bahia averages 12.75 shots per game, showing offensive pressure potential
  • Chapecoense-sc's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, but Bahia concedes very few goals
  • Player stats highlight Bahia's attacking threats like Everaldo and M. Sanabria with solid shot volumes

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Bahia to win based on their superior recent form, defensive strength, and offensive efficiency. Bahia concedes just 0.4 goals per game compared to Chapecoense-sc's 2.2, indicating a strong defensive edge. Bahia's average of 12.75 shots per game and key players like Everaldo and M. Sanabria contribute to a potent attack. Chapecoense-sc's struggles at the bottom of the table and defensive issues further support Bahia's chances. The price offers positive value with a 20% edge over the implied , making this a solid selection without price warnings.

Recent formBahia 7 points vs Chapecoense-sc 1 point
Strong positive
Defensive recordBahia concedes 0.4 goals, Chapecoense-sc concedes 2.2
Strong positive
Offensive pressureBahia averages 12.75 shots per game
Positive
Model chance vs odds70% model chance vs 50% implied chance
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bahia's tactical discipline and recent defensive solidity make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to limit Chapecoense-sc's attacking threats, combined with effective offensive players like Everaldo, gives them a strong edge. Chapecoense-sc's poor form and defensive vulnerabilities suggest they will struggle to contain Bahia's pressure and creativity.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Bahia's consistent defensive performances and attacking depth position them well to secure an away victory, especially against a Chapecoense-sc side conceding heavily and lacking form.”

Key Data Signals

Bahia to Win evidence

Bahia holds a 70% to win with strong recent form and defensive record

Chapecoense-sc concedes over 2 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty

Bahia averages 12.75 shots per game, showing offensive pressure potential

Chapecoense-sc's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, but Bahia concedes very few goals

What To Watch In The Data

Bahia to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • Chapecoense-sc's recent matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, but Bahia's defensive strength tempers the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
  • The trend suggests a controlled tempo with chances for goals primarily from Bahia's side.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Chapecoense-sc0.6
Avg goals scored
Bahia0.8
Chapecoense-sc2.2
Avg goals conceded
Bahia0.4
Chapecoense-sc40%
BTTS rate
Bahia40%
Chapecoense-sc60%
Over 2.5 goals
Bahia0%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 54% · edge +8.3 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Chapecoense-sc has a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating openness in their games, while Bahia's matches have not featured over 2.5 goals recently due to their strong defense. Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting some risk of both sides scoring but with Bahia's defensive discipline likely limiting Chapecoense-sc's chances. This dynamic points to a match where goals may come primarily from Bahia.
Season team stats

Serie A

Chapecoense-sc21
Played
Bahia22
Chapecoense-sc1
Avg goals for
Bahia1.3
Chapecoense-sc2
Avg goals against
Bahia1.1
Chapecoense-sc1
Clean sheets
Bahia7
Market aligned with main pickBahia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Bahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Over the season, Bahia ranks 6th with 33 points, demonstrating consistent performance and a solid defense conceding few goals. Chapecoense-sc sits last with 10 points and a porous defense allowing over 2 goals per game. Bahia's season-long defensive and offensive metrics provide a strong foundation for their expected win in this fixture.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Chapecoense-sc

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 8L
09 Aug 2026A Coritiba1-2
25 Jul 2026A Santos2-2
23 Jul 2026H Flamengo0-4
17 Jul 2026A Bahia0-2
31 May 2026A Palmeiras0-1

Bahia

DDDDW
Last 51W 4D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
09 Aug 2026H Vasco DA Gama0-0
30 Jul 2026A Fluminense0-0
26 Jul 2026H Corinthians1-1
21 Jul 2026A Atletico-MG1-1
17 Jul 2026H Chapecoense-sc2-0
Market aligned with main pickBahia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Bahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Bahia's recent form shows 7 points gained with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.4 goals per game, highlighting momentum and stability. Chapecoense-sc's single point and 2.2 goals conceded per game underline their struggles. This contrast in form and defensive solidity supports Bahia's likelihood to control the match and secure victory.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBahia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Bahia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.58
Check odds @ 1.58
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The current for Bahia to win reflect a positive value opportunity, with the model assigning a 70% chance compared to a 50% implied probability from the market. This significant suggests the price is attractive and justified by Bahia's superior form and defensive record. The market is confident but not overly short-priced, supporting a standard stake recommendation.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Chapecoense-sc4
Avg corners for
Bahia5.5
Chapecoense-sc10.6
Avg total corners
Bahia11
Chapecoense-sc1.4
Avg yellow cards
Bahia1.5
Chapecoense-sc11
Avg shots
Bahia12.75
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Bahia averages more corners (5.5) and shots (12.75) per game than Chapecoense-sc, indicating greater attacking pressure and territorial control. Both teams average 1.5 yellow cards per game, suggesting a balanced discipline profile. Bahia's ability to generate shots and corners reflects sustained offensive pressure, while Chapecoense-sc's lower shot accuracy may limit their threat.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Chapecoense-sc wins
3Draws
4Bahia wins
17 Jul 2026Bahia v Chapecoense-sc2-0
01 Oct 2022Chapecoense-sc v Bahia3-1
14 Jun 2022Bahia v Chapecoense-sc0-1
25 Oct 2021Bahia v Chapecoense-sc3-0
04 Jul 2021Chapecoense-sc v Bahia0-2
07 Nov 2019Bahia v Chapecoense-SC1-1
Market aligned with main pickBahia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 42%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows moderate scoring with an average of 1.8 goals per game. Previous meetings provide some background but do not strongly favor either side. Current form and defensive records carry more weight in predicting the outcome than historical results.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Bahia33228954
20Chapecoense-sc10211713-23
The league standings emphasize Bahia's push for higher table positions and potential continental qualification, adding motivation. Chapecoense-sc's position at the bottom reflects relegation danger, increasing pressure but also indicating vulnerability. This context favors Bahia's composed approach and tactical control in the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Chapecoense-sc Over 2.5
0%Bahia Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 1.8, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. Chapecoense-sc's recent matches have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, but Bahia's defensive strength tempers the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The trend suggests a controlled tempo with chances for goals primarily from Bahia's side.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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