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Molde crestMolde

Eliteserien | Sun 30 Aug, 16:00

Valerenga v Molde Stats

Data last updated: Fri 28 Aug 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Eliteserien clash between Valerenga and Molde promises an open and attacking encounter. Both teams have shown a strong inclination for high-scoring games recently, with Valerenga sitting 11th and Molde 4th in the standings but both earning seven points from their last three matches. Molde's midfield dynamism and Valerenga's forward movement suggest a lively tempo, with both sides eager to capitalize on offensive opportunities. The match carries significance for Molde to maintain pressure on the top spots, while Valerenga aims to climb the table, setting the stage for an engaging contest with multiple goal chances.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both Valerenga and Molde have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • Molde averages 2.4 goals scored per game, Valerenga 3 goals, indicating strong attacking form.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.4 across 10 meetings, supporting high-scoring potential.
  • Both teams average around 18 shots per game, reflecting offensive intent and shot volume.
  • Ødegård leads with 9 shots and shots on target per 90 minutes, highlighting attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% chance, slightly above the implied market probability of 54.6%, indicating a small positive . Both teams consistently produce high-scoring matches, with recent form showing 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates and strong attacking outputs. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per game further supports an open game. Player data, including Molde’s N. Ødegård’s high shot volume, underlines offensive potency. No data limitations affect , making this a well-supported selection for a goal-rich fixture.

Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% for both teams
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.4 goals per game
Positive
Shots per GameValerenga 17.8, Molde 18.4
Positive
Model Probability vs Market58% vs 54.6% implied chance
Positive
Player Attacking ThreatN. Ødegård 9 shots/90 mins
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open, high-tempo match with both teams pushing forward aggressively. Molde’s midfield creativity and Valerenga’s attacking willingness set the stage for multiple goal chances. The statistical trends and player shot volumes strongly suggest a game with at least four goals scored, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Offensive strength and match tempo

“This fixture features two sides with potent attacks and a history of goal-rich encounters, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical selection given their recent form and offensive profiles.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both Valerenga and Molde have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

Molde averages 2.4 goals scored per game, Valerenga 3 goals, indicating strong attacking form.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.4 across 10 meetings, supporting high-scoring potential.

Both teams average around 18 shots per game, reflecting offensive intent and shot volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.4, indicating a history of open, high-scoring matches.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a fast tempo and attacking intent from both sides, making Over 2.5 Goals a consistent pattern and a strong indicator for this fixture’s goal potential.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Valerenga3
Avg goals scored
Molde2.4
Valerenga2.6
Avg goals conceded
Molde2.2
Valerenga80%
BTTS rate
Molde100%
Valerenga100%
Over 2.5 goals
Molde100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Both teams have demonstrated strong scoring and conceding patterns, with Valerenga scoring 3 and conceding 2.6 goals per game, Molde scoring 2.4 and conceding 2.2. Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently and high BTTS rates, indicating open games with goals at both ends. This dynamic supports the expectation of multiple goals and a lively attacking contest.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 74% · edge +4.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Valerenga to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Molde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced at 1.83 with an implied chance of 54.6%, while the model estimates a 58% probability, indicating a small positive . This suggests the market slightly underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, supported by both teams' recent scoring trends and shot volumes. The price is attractive enough to justify a standard stake without caution flags.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Valerenga6.2
Avg corners for
Molde7
Valerenga13.8
Avg total corners
Molde9.8
Valerenga2
Avg yellow cards
Molde3
Valerenga17.8
Avg shots
Molde18.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 71% · edge -2.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Valerenga and Molde average 6.2 and 7 corners per game respectively, reflecting sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Both teams generate high shot volumes (17.8 and 18.4 per game) with solid shots on target, indicating quality chances. Card averages suggest moderate fouling, which may lead to set-piece opportunities, further enhancing goal-scoring chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Valerenga

DLLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
16 Aug 2026A Aalesund5-5
08 Aug 2026H Bodo/Glimt1-2
31 Jul 2026H Ham-Kam0-3
26 Jul 2026A Brann3-2
16 Jul 2026H Aalesund6-1

Molde

WLDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
16 Aug 2026H Tromso3-2
09 Aug 2026A Kristiansund BK1-2
02 Aug 2026H Sarpsborg 08 FF3-3
26 Jul 2026A KFUM Oslo4-2
18 Jul 2026H Brann1-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 64% · edge +11 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Valerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2
Check odds @ 2
Valerenga to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Molde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Molde to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form data shows both teams have secured 7 points in their last three matches, with Valerenga scoring 3 goals and Molde 2.4 per game. Both teams have maintained a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate, demonstrating consistent high-scoring performances. This momentum suggests the match will continue the trend of open play and multiple goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Valerenga wins
2Draws
6Molde wins
26 Apr 2026Molde v Valerenga5-1
28 Sep 2025Molde v Valerenga4-1
22 Jun 2025Valerenga v Molde2-3
19 Aug 2023Molde v Valerenga0-0
15 Jul 2023Valerenga v Molde0-4
13 Nov 2022Valerenga v Molde1-2
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 74% · edge +4.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Valerenga to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Molde to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The ten previous encounters between Valerenga and Molde have averaged 3.4 goals per game, reflecting a history of open contests with multiple goals. This sample supports the expectation of a high-scoring match, though current tactical setups and form remain important factors to consider alongside historical data.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eliteserien

Valerenga17
Played
Molde17
Valerenga1.6
Avg goals for
Molde1.9
Valerenga2
Avg goals against
Molde1.5
Valerenga2
Clean sheets
Molde3
Best odds for this sectionValerenga Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 56% vs implied 50% · edge +5.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Valerenga to WinBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Molde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Molde to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Season-long statistics reveal Valerenga averages 3 goals scored and concedes 2.6 per game, while Molde scores 2.4 and concedes 2.2. These figures highlight both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring match exceeding 3.5 goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Molde27178366
11Valerenga2117638-6
Valerenga sits 11th with 21 points, Molde 4th with 27 points, reflecting differing league ambitions but similar recent scoring form. Molde’s push for higher placement and Valerenga’s need to climb the table add competitive intensity, encouraging attacking approaches that favor goal-rich outcomes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Valerenga Over 2.5
100%Molde Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.4, indicating a history of open, high-scoring matches. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a fast tempo and attacking intent from both sides, making Over 2.5 Goals a consistent pattern and a strong indicator for this fixture’s goal potential.

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