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Union Brescia crestUnion Brescia
v
Treviso crestTreviso

Serie C - Girone A | Thu 17 Sep, 20:00

Union Brescia v Treviso Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 07:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Union Brescia and Treviso meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing solid defensive records early in the season. Union Brescia ranks third with 10 points and a notably stingy defense conceding just 0.25 goals per game, while Treviso sits seventh with 7 points and a slightly higher concession rate. Both teams have averaged 1.25 goals scored per match, indicating modest attacking output. The tactical setup suggests a cautious approach from both sides, aiming to avoid defensive lapses rather than pushing aggressively for goals, setting the stage for a low-scoring encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Union Brescia concedes just 0.25 goals per game, showing defensive solidity
  • Treviso averages 1.25 goals scored but concedes 1 goal per match, indicating balanced defense
  • Union Brescia's Over 2.5 Goals rate is only 25%, reflecting low-scoring matches
  • Treviso's BTTS rate is 75%, but Union Brescia's BTTS rate is just 25%, suggesting limited goal exchanges
  • No previous head-to-head data, so current form and defensive stats are key indicators

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, supported by both teams' strong defensive records and low scoring averages. Union Brescia's exceptional defensive discipline, conceding only 0.25 goals per game, combined with Treviso's moderate attack, suggests limited goal opportunities. The low Over 2.5 Goals rates for Union Brescia (25%) further reinforce the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring match. The at 1.65 offer a small positive , making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for this fixture.

Union Brescia Defensive Strength0.25 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Treviso Moderate Attack1.25 goals scored per game
Positive
Low Over 2.5 Goals Rate25% for Union Brescia
Positive
Model Probability66% chance for Under 2.5 Goals
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given Union Brescia's tight defensive form and Treviso's cautious approach. The data shows both teams prioritize defensive solidity, with limited goal-scoring output so far. This tactical balance suggests a match unlikely to produce many goals, making the Under 2.5 Goals selection a sound choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical caution

“Union Brescia's defensive discipline combined with Treviso's moderate scoring suggests a controlled game with few clear chances, making Under 2.5 Goals a prudent bet.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Union Brescia concedes just 0.25 goals per game, showing defensive solidity

Treviso averages 1.25 goals scored but concedes 1 goal per match, indicating balanced defense

Treviso's BTTS rate is 75%, but Union Brescia's BTTS rate is just 25%, suggesting limited goal exchanges

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • With no previous head-to-head meetings, recent trends focus on Over 2.5 Goals rates: Union Brescia's low 25% rate contrasts with Treviso's 50%.
  • The last five matches for Union Brescia show a trend toward low-scoring games, indicating a slower tempo and defensive solidity that could limit goal opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union Brescia1.25
Avg goals scored
Treviso1.25
Union Brescia0.25
Avg goals conceded
Treviso1
Union Brescia25%
BTTS rate
Treviso75%
Union Brescia25%
Over 2.5 goals
Treviso50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 61% · edge +5.4 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 42%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Goal and BTTS data reveal contrasting tendencies: Union Brescia has a low BTTS rate of 25%, reflecting tight defensive matches, while Treviso's 75% BTTS rate suggests they often concede or score. However, the combined low scoring averages and Union Brescia's defensive record suggest goals will be limited, supporting a BTTS No/controlled goals scenario.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Treviso Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Union Brescia to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Treviso to WinBetfred guide price · model 25%
5
Check odds @ 5
Union Brescia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.65 with a of 66%, indicating a small positive . The reflect the defensive strengths and low scoring trends of both teams, making this market a reasonable choice rather than a speculative one. The price is stable and aligns well with the football context of a cautious, low-scoring fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union Brescia

DWWW
Last 53W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 0L
13 Sep 2026A Trento0-0
06 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-0
30 Aug 2026A Pergolettese1-0
21 Aug 2026H Athletic Carpi3-1

Treviso

WDWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
13 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli2-1
07 Sep 2026A Alcione1-1
31 Aug 2026H Lecco1-0
23 Aug 2026A Trento1-2
Best odds for this sectionTreviso Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Union Brescia to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Treviso to WinBetfred guide price · model 25%
5
Check odds @ 5
Union Brescia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Recent form shows Union Brescia with 10 points and a strong defense conceding just 0.25 goals per game, while Treviso has 7 points with a slightly higher concession rate. Both teams average 1.25 goals scored, indicating balanced but modest attacking output. This form supports a low-scoring match with defensive caution prevailing.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Union Brescia wins
0Draws
0Treviso wins
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Union Brescia to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Treviso to WinBetfred guide price · model 25%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 38%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
There are no prior head-to-head matches between Union Brescia and Treviso to inform this fixture. Therefore, current season form and defensive/offensive statistics provide the primary basis for expectations, emphasizing the importance of recent defensive strength and scoring patterns over historical encounters.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Union Brescia4
Played
Treviso4
Union Brescia1.3
Avg goals for
Treviso1.3
Union Brescia0.3
Avg goals against
Treviso1
Union Brescia3
Clean sheets
Treviso1
Best odds for this sectionTreviso Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 41% vs implied 26% · edge +15 pts
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Load more odds for this section
Union Brescia to WinBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Treviso to WinBetfred guide price · model 25%
5
Check odds @ 5
Union Brescia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.24
Check odds @ 1.24
Season-long statistics highlight Union Brescia's defensive prowess with only 0.25 goals conceded per game and a low Over 2.5 Goals rate of 25%. Treviso's stats show moderate scoring and conceding rates, reinforcing the expectation of a controlled match with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the Under 2.5 Goals market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Union Brescia1043104
7Treviso742111
Union Brescia's third-place standing with 10 points reflects strong early-season form and defensive stability. Treviso's seventh place with 7 points shows competitive but less consistent results. The standings suggest both teams are motivated to secure points, likely leading to cautious tactics and a focus on defensive organization rather than open attacking play.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Union Brescia Over 2.5
50%Treviso Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
With no previous head-to-head meetings, recent trends focus on Over 2.5 Goals rates: Union Brescia's low 25% rate contrasts with Treviso's 50%. The last five matches for Union Brescia show a trend toward low-scoring games, indicating a slower tempo and defensive solidity that could limit goal opportunities in this fixture.

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Fixture links

Prediction context

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