Albinoleffe

Arzignano Valchiampo

Serie C - Girone A | Thu 17 Sep, 17:30

Albinoleffe v Arzignano Valchiampo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 07:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Albinoleffe and Arzignano Valchiampo meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing cautious attacking output early in the season. Albinoleffe sits mid-table with 5 points, while Arzignano Valchiampo is lower with 4 points. Both teams average less than one goal scored and conceded per game, reflecting a balanced but low-scoring style. Recent matches suggest a tactical approach prioritizing defensive solidity over open attacking play, setting the stage for a tight contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

Both teams average 0.75 goals scored per game this season, indicating modest attacking threat.
Albinoleffe concedes 0.75 goals per game, while Arzignano Valchiampo concedes slightly more at 1.25.
Albinoleffe has a 25% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, compared to 50% for Arzignano Valchiampo, suggesting a generally low-scoring trend.
Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.11 across nine meetings, supporting a moderate scoring environment.
Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, indicating occasional but not consistent goal exchanges.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 63.8% probability, reflecting the low scoring rates and defensive approaches of both teams. Albinoleffe's and Arzignano Valchiampo's modest goal averages and recent form support a controlled game with fewer goals. The at 1.62 offer a small positive , reinforcing the likelihood of a tight match. Limited data quality is not a concern here, allowing in the defensive solidity signals.

Low average goals scored0.75 goals per game for both teams

Strong positive

Defensive concession rates0.75 and 1.25 goals conceded per game

Positive

Head-to-head scoring2.11 average goals per match

Neutral

Over 2.5 goals rate25% for Albinoleffe, 50% for Arzignano Valchiampo

Neutral

Value edge2.1% positive at odds 1.62

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible pick given both teams’ early-season defensive discipline and modest attacking output. Albinoleffe’s home solidity combined with Arzignano Valchiampo’s cautious approach suggests a match unlikely to produce many goals. The data supports a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical and scoring outlook

“This fixture looks set for a tactical battle with both sides prioritizing defensive structure over risky attacking play. The low scoring averages and cautious recent form point towards a match where goals will be at a premium.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 0.75 goals scored per game this season, indicating modest attacking threat.

Albinoleffe concedes 0.75 goals per game, while Arzignano Valchiampo concedes slightly more at 1.25.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.11 across nine meetings, supporting a moderate scoring environment.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.11, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
Recent matches show a tempo favoring controlled play and defensive discipline, suggesting that while goals can occur, the fixture typically does not produce high-scoring outcomes, consistent with an Under 2.5 Goals trend.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Albinoleffe0.75

Avg goals scored

Arzignano Valchiampo0.75

Albinoleffe0.75

Avg goals conceded

Arzignano Valchiampo1.25

Albinoleffe50%

BTTS rate

Arzignano Valchiampo50%

Albinoleffe25%

Over 2.5 goals

Arzignano Valchiampo50%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 61% · edge +3.2 pts

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 46%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%

Check odds @ 4

Both teams average 0.75 goals scored per game and have a 50% BTTS rate, indicating that while goals are not frequent, there is occasional scoring from both sides. The head-to-head average of 2.11 goals per game supports a moderate scoring environment, but the overall data points to a controlled match with limited goal exchanges, favoring a low total goals outcome.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.9 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Albinoleffe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Albinoleffe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Arzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.62, reflecting a slightly conservative expectation of scoring. The model’s 63.8% chance suggests a small positive , indicating that the are fair and slightly favorable for backing fewer goals. This price sensitivity means the market is well aligned with the defensive tendencies of both teams, making the bet a reasonable choice without strong price distortions.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Albinoleffe

DLDW

Last 51W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 1L

13 Sep 2026A Dolomiti Bellunesi0-0

06 Sep 2026H Athletic Carpi0-1

31 Aug 2026H Ospitaletto1-1

22 Aug 2026A Giana Erminio2-1

Arzignano Valchiampo

LLWD

Last 51W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 2L

13 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-2

06 Sep 2026A Ospitaletto1-3

30 Aug 2026H PRO Vercelli1-0

22 Aug 2026A Lecco0-0

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 77% · edge +0.7 pts

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

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Albinoleffe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

Albinoleffe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 62%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Arzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Recent form shows Albinoleffe with 5 points and Arzignano Valchiampo with 4, both averaging under one goal scored and conceded per game. This form profile highlights a trend of tight matches with limited scoring, reinforcing the likelihood of an Under 2.5 Goals outcome based on current team performances and tactical setups.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Albinoleffe wins

4Draws

3Arzignano Valchiampo wins

15 Aug 2026Arzignano Valchiampo v Albinoleffe2-1

15 Feb 2026Albinoleffe v Arzignano Valchiampo2-0

05 Oct 2025Arzignano Valchiampo v Albinoleffe0-0

04 Jan 2025Albinoleffe v Arzignano Valchiampo1-1

02 Sep 2024Arzignano Valchiampo v Albinoleffe1-1

05 Mar 2024Arzignano Valchiampo v Albinoleffe0-0

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.9 pts

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

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Albinoleffe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Arzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

The nine previous meetings between these teams have averaged just over two goals per game, indicating a history of relatively tight contests. This historical data weakly supports a low-scoring outcome, as neither side has consistently produced high goal tallies against the other, reinforcing the defensive balance expected in this match.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Albinoleffe4

Played

Arzignano Valchiampo4

Albinoleffe0.8

Avg goals for

Arzignano Valchiampo0.8

Albinoleffe0.8

Avg goals against

Arzignano Valchiampo1.3

Albinoleffe1

Clean sheets

Arzignano Valchiampo2

Best odds for this sectionAlbinoleffe Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +1.4 pts

1.72

Check odds @ 1.72

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Albinoleffe to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Arzignano Valchiampo to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 44%

2.08

Check odds @ 2.08

Season-long statistics reveal both teams maintain modest attacking outputs and relatively solid defensive records. Albinoleffe’s 0.75 goals for and against per game and Arzignano Valchiampo’s slightly higher concession rate reflect a balanced but low-scoring profile, supporting the expectation of a match with fewer goals and controlled tempo.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
9	Albinoleffe	5	4	1	2	1	0
15	Arzignano Valchiampo	4	4	1	1	2	-2

Albinoleffe’s mid-table position and Arzignano Valchiampo’s lower ranking suggest differing stakes but similar tactical caution. The standings do not indicate urgent offensive pressure, allowing both teams to focus on defensive stability, which aligns with a low-scoring match scenario.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Albinoleffe Over 2.5

50%Arzignano Valchiampo Over 2.5

2.11H2H avg goals

Over the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.11, indicating a moderate scoring trend. Recent matches show a tempo favoring controlled play and defensive discipline, suggesting that while goals can occur, the fixture typically does not produce high-scoring outcomes, consistent with an Under 2.5 Goals trend.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Albinoleffe v Arzignano Valchiampo Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Albinoleffe

Arzignano Valchiampo

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Football Stats Hub

Albinoleffe v Arzignano Valchiampo Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Albinoleffe

Arzignano Valchiampo

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