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Lumezzane crestLumezzane
v
Novara crestNovara

Serie C - Girone A | Thu 17 Sep, 17:30

Lumezzane v Novara Stats

Data last updated: Wed 16 Sep 2026, 07:57 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lumezzane and Novara meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing similar early-season form, each collecting four points from their opening matches. Both teams have scored and conceded goals at a moderate rate, suggesting an open contest with attacking intent balanced by defensive vulnerabilities. The fixture promises a tactical battle where both sides will seek to exploit chances, making goal-scoring opportunities likely on both ends. Recent performances indicate neither team has dominated defensively, setting the stage for a match where both teams finding the net is a distinct possibility.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have scored in 50% of their recent matches this season.
  • Lumezzane concedes 1.5 goals per game on average, Novara concedes 1.25.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.33 across six meetings.
  • Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 66.7% chance for both teams to score, well above the implied market chance of 54.6%, indicating positive value at of 1.83. Both Lumezzane and Novara have shown a tendency to concede and score goals, with balanced attacking and defensive profiles supporting an open game. The head-to-head average of 2.33 goals per match further reinforces the likelihood of goals at both ends. No data limitations or price warnings reduce , making this a solid selection based on current form and historical trends.

Model Chance66.7%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance54.6%
Positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals2.33 goals per match
Positive
Recent BTTS Rate50% for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Lumezzane and Novara have demonstrated attacking intent and defensive frailties that make both teams scoring a likely outcome. The balanced recent form and historical goal averages suggest an open match where both sides can find the net, making the BTTS selection a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS market rationale

“The attacking patterns and defensive openness from both sides create a fertile ground for goals at both ends, making the BTTS market a compelling angle for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in 50% of their recent matches this season.

Lumezzane concedes 1.5 goals per game on average, Novara concedes 1.25.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.33 across six meetings.

Both teams have a 50% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals this season.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 2.33, with both teams showing a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals this season.
  • This trend indicates a moderately high tempo and goal frequency, supporting expectations for an open game with multiple scoring opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lumezzane

DLWL
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Renate2-2
06 Sep 2026A Cittadella1-2
30 Aug 2026H Giana Erminio1-0
22 Aug 2026A Ospitaletto0-2

Novara

LWDL
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Pergolettese0-1
07 Sep 2026A Renate2-1
31 Aug 2026H Folgore Caratese2-2
22 Aug 2026A Juventus U230-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 69% · edge +2.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Novara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Novara to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Lumezzane Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lumezzane to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both Lumezzane and Novara have earned four points each with similar goal-scoring and conceding records, reflecting balanced recent form. Their 50% BTTS rate this season indicates a consistent pattern of both teams scoring, aligning well with the primary pick.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
12Novara44112-1
13Lumezzane44112-2
Lumezzane and Novara sit closely in the league table, ranked 13th and 12th respectively with equal points. This proximity suggests similar competitive levels and motivation, with neither side likely to adopt overly defensive tactics, favoring an open contest with goals from both sides.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lumezzane1
Avg goals scored
Novara1
Lumezzane1.5
Avg goals conceded
Novara1.25
Lumezzane50%
BTTS rate
Novara50%
Lumezzane50%
Over 2.5 goals
Novara50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have scored in half of their matches this season, with Lumezzane conceding 1.5 goals per game and Novara 1.25. The head-to-head average of 2.33 goals across six meetings supports an expectation of open play and mutual scoring opportunities, reinforcing the BTTS outlook.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Novara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Novara to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Lumezzane Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lumezzane to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively at 1.83 with a of 66.7%, indicating good value. The market's implied chance of 54.6% is significantly lower than the model's probability, suggesting the offer a positive edge without requiring caution on price sensitivity.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Lumezzane wins
5Draws
0Novara wins
03 Apr 2026Novara v Lumezzane1-3
29 Nov 2025Lumezzane v Novara1-1
11 Apr 2025Lumezzane v Novara2-2
01 Dec 2024Novara v Lumezzane0-0
30 Mar 2024Novara v Lumezzane1-1
26 Nov 2023Lumezzane v Novara1-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Novara to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Lumezzane to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3
Check odds @ 3
The six previous meetings between Lumezzane and Novara have averaged 2.33 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively open contests. This moderate goal average lends support to the BTTS market, suggesting both teams have found scoring opportunities in their past encounters.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Lumezzane4
Played
Novara4
Lumezzane1
Avg goals for
Novara1
Lumezzane1.5
Avg goals against
Novara1.3
Lumezzane1
Clean sheets
Novara0
Best odds for this sectionNovara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 53% vs implied 51% · edge +1.3 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Novara to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Lumezzane Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Lumezzane to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Season-long data shows both teams maintain a 50% rate of matches with both teams scoring, alongside moderate goals conceded per game. This consistent trend underlines the likelihood of goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Lumezzane Over 2.5
50%Novara Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
Over the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals tally stands at 2.33, with both teams showing a 50% rate for over 2.5 goals this season. This trend indicates a moderately high tempo and goal frequency, supporting expectations for an open game with multiple scoring opportunities.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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