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Ukraine U19 crestUkraine U19
v
Italy U19 crestItaly U19

UEFA U19 Championship | Sun 05 Jul, 16:00

Ukraine U19 v Italy U19 Stats

Data last updated: Sun 16 Aug 2026, 15:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ukraine U19 face Italy U19 in UEFA U19 Championship on Sun 05 Jul, 16:00. Group B Control, Midfield Nerve And A Proper Test Of Temperament. Ukraine U19 have found form at exactly the right moment.

BT4Y best bet

1: Under 2

  • At 14/1, 1: Under 2 implies roughly 7%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 22%.
  • That gives them an average of 1.33 goals scored per game and 0.83 conceded.
  • Ukraine U19 have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Italy U19.
  • Italy U19 have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the 1: Under 2 angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 22% for 1: Under 2 sits against roughly 7% implied by the current price. Ukraine U19 have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Italy U19. That gives them an average of 1.33 goals scored per game and 0.83 conceded.

Model chance vs price22% model chance against roughly 7% implied
Strong positive
Ukraine U19 have the stronger recent points return, taking 6.Visible data support
Positive
Italy U19 have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
That gives them an average of 1.33 goals scored.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Ukraine U19 Win is the preferred angle because that gives them an average of that scoring level scored per game and 0.83 conceded. Ukraine U19 have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Italy U19. The basic equation is simple, but the football underneath it is not.

Main risk

The basic equation is simple, but the football underneath it is not.

Key Data Signals

1: Under 2 evidence

That gives them an average of 1.33 goals scored per game and 0.83 conceded.

Ukraine U19 have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 4 for Italy U19.

Italy U19 have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Ukraine U19 Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

1: Under 2 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Ukraine U192.5
    Avg goals scored
    Italy U191
    Ukraine U191
    Avg goals conceded
    Italy U190
    Ukraine U19100%
    BTTS rate
    Italy U190%
    Ukraine U19100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Italy U190%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 51% · edge +7.1 pts
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 100% for Ukraine U19 and 0% for Italy U19, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Ukraine U19 to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Ukraine U19

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    02 Jul 2026A Serbia U192-1
    29 Jun 2026A Croatia U193-1

    Italy U19

    DW
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    02 Jul 2026A Croatia U190-0
    29 Jun 2026H Serbia U192-0
    Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Ukraine U19 wins
    0Draws
    1Italy U19 wins
    21 Jul 2024Ukraine U19 v Italy U193-2
    23 Mar 2019Italy U19 v Ukraine U193-1
    Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Ukraine U19 to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    UEFA U19 Championship

    Ukraine U194
    Played
    Italy U194
    Ukraine U191.8
    Avg goals for
    Italy U190.5
    Ukraine U191
    Avg goals against
    Italy U190.3
    Ukraine U191
    Clean sheets
    Italy U193
    Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Season data supports Ukraine U19 to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Ukraine U19 Over 2.5
    0%Italy U19 Over 2.5
    4.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ukraine U19 sit at 100% and Italy U19 sit at 0% with the H2H average at 4.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.