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Ukraine U19 crestUkraine U19
v
Italy U19 crestItaly U19

UEFA U19 Championship | Sun 05 Jul, 16:00

Ukraine U19 v Italy U19 Stats

Data last updated: Tue 07 Jul 2026, 00:07 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The UEFA U19 Championship clash between Ukraine U19 and Italy U19 presents a compelling tactical battle. Ukraine U19 enter with strong recent form, securing 6 points and averaging 2.5 goals per game, showcasing an aggressive attacking style that has consistently breached opposition defenses. Italy U19, while defensively solid with zero goals conceded, have struggled offensively, scoring just once and failing to reach over 2.5 goals in their matches. This contrast sets up a contest where Ukraine's offensive momentum and home advantage could be decisive against Italy's more cautious approach.

BT4Y best bet

Ukraine U19 to Win

  • Ukraine U19 have won 6 points recently with a high scoring rate of 2.5 goals per game.
  • Italy U19 have kept clean sheets but scored only 1 goal, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Ukraine U19's matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting open, attacking games.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 4.5 goals, highlighting potential for goal-rich encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Ukraine U19 to win with a 57.7% chance, reflecting their superior recent scoring output and ability to break down defenses. Ukraine's perfect over 2.5 goals rate and BTTS record indicate a dynamic attack likely to challenge Italy's defense. Italy's low scoring and conservative style reduce their winning probability. Data quality is solid, supporting in the model's prediction without price sensitivity concerns.

Recent FormUkraine U19 strong with 6 points and 2.5 goals per game
Strong positive
Defensive ProfileItaly U19 concede few goals but score less
Positive
Goal TrendsUkraine U19 matches 100% over 2.5 goals
Strong positive
Head-to-HeadHigh average goals (4.5) in past meetings
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Ukraine U19's recent attacking form and ability to consistently score multiple goals make them the favored side in this match. Their offensive momentum contrasts with Italy U19's low scoring output, suggesting Ukraine's dynamic play will be key to securing victory. The data supports backing Ukraine U19 to win based on both tactical and statistical evidence.

Main risk

The main risk is Italy U19's strong defensive discipline limiting Ukraine U19's scoring chances, which could reduce the home side's winning margin or lead to a tighter scoreline.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Ukraine U19

“Ukraine U19's aggressive attacking style and consistent goal-scoring form give them a clear edge over Italy U19, whose defensive solidity may not be enough to contain such offensive pressure throughout the match.”

Key Data Signals

Ukraine U19 to Win evidence

Ukraine U19 have won 6 points recently with a high scoring rate of 2.5 goals per game.

Italy U19 have kept clean sheets but scored only 1 goal, indicating offensive struggles.

Ukraine U19's matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting open, attacking games.

Head-to-head meetings average 4.5 goals, highlighting potential for goal-rich encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Ukraine U19 to Win notes

  • Over the last two head-to-head matches, an average of 4.5 goals per game indicates a high-scoring trend.
  • This suggests that the fixture typically features open play and attacking intent from both sides, supporting expectations for an over 2.5 goals outcome in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ukraine U192.5
Avg goals scored
Italy U191
Ukraine U191
Avg goals conceded
Italy U190
Ukraine U19100%
BTTS rate
Italy U190%
Ukraine U19100%
Over 2.5 goals
Italy U190%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 51% · edge +7.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Goal and BTTS trends highlight Ukraine U19's matches consistently exceeding 2.5 goals with both teams scoring, contrasting with Italy U19's low scoring and clean sheets. This suggests an open game where Ukraine's attack will likely break through, while Italy may also find opportunities, supporting a goal-rich encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 29% · edge +29.1 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The Ukraine U19 to Win market reflects a reasonable price given their 57.7% , indicating a balanced but confident expectation of victory. The are not flagged as price-sensitive, suggesting the market fairly values Ukraine's recent form and attacking potential against Italy's defensive approach.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ukraine U19

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
02 Jul 2026A Serbia U192-1
29 Jun 2026A Croatia U193-1

Italy U19

DW
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
02 Jul 2026A Croatia U190-0
29 Jun 2026H Serbia U192-0
Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 29% · edge +29.1 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 83%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Ukraine U19's recent form shows strong offensive output with 6 points and 2.5 goals per game, indicating momentum and . Italy U19's form is more defensive, with 4 points and zero goals conceded but limited scoring. This contrast suggests Ukraine's form advantage could be decisive in securing a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Ukraine U19 wins
0Draws
1Italy U19 wins
21 Jul 2024Ukraine U19 v Italy U193-2
23 Mar 2019Italy U19 v Ukraine U193-1
Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 29% · edge +29.1 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The two previous meetings between Ukraine U19 and Italy U19 have produced an average of 4.5 goals, indicating historically open and attacking contests. While the sample is small, this trend supports expectations of a lively match with multiple scoring opportunities for both teams.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA U19 Championship

Ukraine U193
Played
Italy U193
Ukraine U192
Avg goals for
Italy U190.7
Ukraine U190.7
Avg goals against
Italy U190.3
Ukraine U191
Clean sheets
Italy U192
Market aligned with main pickUkraine U19 to WinBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 29% · edge +29.1 pts
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Season statistics underline Ukraine U19's attacking prowess, averaging 2.5 goals per game and a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, while Italy U19 maintain a strong defensive record but struggle offensively. This imbalance favors Ukraine's ability to control the game and create scoring chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Ukraine U19 Over 2.5
0%Italy U19 Over 2.5
4.5H2H avg goals
Over the last two head-to-head matches, an average of 4.5 goals per game indicates a high-scoring trend. This suggests that the fixture typically features open play and attacking intent from both sides, supporting expectations for an over 2.5 goals outcome in this encounter.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.