Football Stats Hub

TPV crestTPV
v
KuPS Akatemia crestKuPS Akatemia

Ykkönen | Sun 13 Sep, 13:00

TPV v KuPS Akatemia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ykkönen fixture features TPV hosting KuPS Akatemia in a contest where both sides are seeking to improve their league standing and form. TPV sits 9th with 24 points, while KuPS Akatemia is 11th with 15 points, indicating a battle for mid-to-lower table stability. Recent form shows TPV has earned 5 points with a modest scoring record, whereas KuPS Akatemia has collected 4 points but boasts a higher goal involvement rate. Tactical approaches suggest KuPS Akatemia may aim to avoid defeat and capitalize on counter-attacks, making the double chance option appealing.

BT4Y best bet

KuPS Akatemia or Draw

  • KuPS Akatemia or Draw offers a 14.2% versus implied
  • KuPS Akatemia has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking intent
  • TPV’s recent form includes 5 points but only 1 goal scored, showing offensive struggles
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.5 across two matches, supporting goal potential

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors KuPS Akatemia or Draw with a 68.8% chance, significantly higher than the 54.6% implied by at 1.83, indicating strong value. KuPS Akatemia's attacking tendencies, reflected in an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and higher goals per game, combined with TPV's defensive vulnerabilities, support this cautious double chance. The limited data quality is sufficient to trust these trends, and the model at 78% reinforces this selection as a solid option without price warnings.

Model Probability68.8%
Strong positive
Implied Probability54.6%
Neutral
Value Edge14.2%
Strong positive
Confidence Level78%
Positive
Data QualitySufficient for reliable trends
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

KuPS Akatemia or Draw is a tactically sound pick given KuPS Akatemia’s higher attacking output and the likelihood of goals in this fixture. The data shows KuPS Akatemia’s resilience and ability to avoid defeat, making the double chance a prudent choice supported by both form and statistical trends.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical balance favoring KuPS Akatemia or Draw

“KuPS Akatemia’s offensive approach combined with TPV’s defensive concessions makes the double chance a smart selection, balancing risk with the potential for goals and points.”

Key Data Signals

KuPS Akatemia or Draw evidence

KuPS Akatemia or Draw offers a 14.2% versus implied

TPV’s recent form includes 5 points but only 1 goal scored, showing offensive struggles

Head-to-head average goals stand at 3.5 across two matches, supporting goal potential

What To Watch In The Data

KuPS Akatemia or Draw notes

  • The Over 2.5 Goals trend over recent matches and head-to-head meetings indicates a high-scoring fixture likelihood.
  • KuPS Akatemia’s 80% Over 2.5 rate and the 3.5 average goals in two meetings suggest an open tempo with chances for both sides to score, enhancing goal market appeal.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

TPV1
Avg goals scored
KuPS Akatemia1.6
TPV1.6
Avg goals conceded
KuPS Akatemia2
TPV60%
BTTS rate
KuPS Akatemia80%
TPV20%
Over 2.5 goals
KuPS Akatemia80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 75% · edge +0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 83%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams show contrasting goal trends: KuPS Akatemia has an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate and a higher goals-for average (1.6), while TPV’s scoring is limited. The head-to-head average of 3.5 goals in two matches suggests this fixture could see multiple goals and potential BTTS outcomes, supporting an attacking game narrative.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 75% · edge +0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
KuPS Akatemia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
KuPS Akatemia to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
TPV Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
TPV to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The KuPS Akatemia or Draw market is priced attractively at 1.83, offering a 14.2% over the model’s 68.8% probability. This indicates a positive betting opportunity without price sensitivity concerns, as the reflect a favorable risk-reward balance for backing KuPS Akatemia to avoid defeat.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

TPV

LWDDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
29 Aug 2026H PKKU0-2
22 Aug 2026A Inter Turku II1-0
15 Aug 2026A Tampere United1-1
11 Aug 2026H SalPa1-1
05 Aug 2026A OLS2-4

KuPS Akatemia

LWDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
29 Aug 2026H SalPa1-3
21 Aug 2026A KPV-j4-2
16 Aug 2026H PKKU2-2
11 Aug 2026A Rops1-2
07 Aug 2026H Inter Turku II0-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.2 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
KuPS Akatemia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
KuPS Akatemia to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
TPV Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
TPV to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Recent form shows TPV with 5 points and a low scoring rate, indicating offensive struggles, while KuPS Akatemia has 4 points but a higher goal average and Over 2.5 rate. This contrast suggests KuPS Akatemia is more likely to avoid defeat and influence the match outcome positively.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1TPV wins
0Draws
1KuPS Akatemia wins
18 Jul 2026TPV v KuPS Akatemia3-1
24 Apr 2026KuPS Akatemia v TPV3-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 75% · edge +0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
KuPS Akatemia to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
TPV to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample of two matches shows an average of 3.5 goals, indicating historically open contests between these teams. While limited, this supports expectations of goal opportunities and a competitive match where KuPS Akatemia can avoid defeat, aligning with the double chance selection.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ykkönen

TPV22
Played
KuPS Akatemia22
TPV1.4
Avg goals for
KuPS Akatemia1.7
TPV1.8
Avg goals against
KuPS Akatemia2.3
TPV3
Clean sheets
KuPS Akatemia2
Best odds for this sectionKuPS Akatemia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 42% · edge +7.6 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
KuPS Akatemia to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
TPV Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
TPV to WinBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Season statistics reveal KuPS Akatemia’s more prolific attack and higher goals conceded, pointing to an open style that can yield goals but also defensive risks. TPV’s lower scoring and similar defensive record suggest a cautious approach, favoring KuPS Akatemia’s ability to secure at least a draw.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9TPV24226610-10
11KuPS Akatemia15223613-14
The standings show TPV in 9th and KuPS Akatemia in 11th place, with a points gap indicating KuPS Akatemia’s need to avoid defeat to improve their position. This competitive pressure supports a pragmatic approach from KuPS Akatemia, aiming for a draw or better to close the gap.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%TPV Over 2.5
80%KuPS Akatemia Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 Goals trend over recent matches and head-to-head meetings indicates a high-scoring fixture likelihood. KuPS Akatemia’s 80% Over 2.5 rate and the 3.5 average goals in two meetings suggest an open tempo with chances for both sides to score, enhancing goal market appeal.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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