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FC jazz crestFC jazz

Ykkönen | Sat 26 Sep, 14:00

TPV v FC jazz Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ykkönen clash features FC jazz traveling to face TPV in a contest where FC jazz hold a clear edge in recent form and league standing. FC jazz have accumulated 36 points, sitting 7th, compared to TPV's 27 points and 9th place. FC jazz's defensive solidity is notable, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while TPV have struggled defensively, allowing 1.6 goals per match. FC jazz's slightly higher scoring rate and superior points tally suggest they approach this fixture with and tactical discipline, aiming to extend their advantage in the league.

BT4Y best bet

FC jazz to Win

  • FC jazz have a 61.7% to win, indicating strong in their victory.
  • TPV concede 1.6 goals per game, while FC jazz concede just 0.6, highlighting defensive strength.
  • FC jazz have earned 36 points this season versus TPV's 27, reflecting better overall form.
  • The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 2.8, suggesting moderately open games.
  • FC jazz's over 2.5 goals rate is lower, indicating a more controlled, defensive approach.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors FC jazz to win with a 61.7% chance, supported by their superior defensive record and recent form. Despite TPV's home advantage, FC jazz's consistency in conceding fewer goals and accumulating more points underpins this selection. The of 2.15 offer positive value given the implied chance of 46.5%. The data quality is solid with balanced datasets for both teams, reinforcing in the prediction.

Model Win Probability61.7%
Strong positive
Defensive RecordFC jazz concede 0.6 goals/game vs TPV 1.6
Strong positive
Recent PointsFC jazz 36 vs TPV 27
Positive
Implied Odds Chance46.5% vs model 61.7%
Strong positive
Data QualityBalanced data for both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC jazz's disciplined defense and superior recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory against TPV. Their ability to limit goals conceded while maintaining steady attacking output provides a tactical and statistical foundation for this pick. TPV's vulnerabilities at the back further enhance FC jazz's chances of winning this match.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“FC jazz's defensive resilience and consistent point accumulation set them apart in this fixture, making them a strong candidate for victory despite playing away. Their tactical discipline should frustrate TPV and create opportunities to capitalize on mistakes.”

Key Data Signals

FC jazz to Win evidence

FC jazz have a 61.7% to win, indicating strong in their victory.

TPV concede 1.6 goals per game, while FC jazz concede just 0.6, highlighting defensive strength.

FC jazz have earned 36 points this season versus TPV's 27, reflecting better overall form.

The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 2.8, suggesting moderately open games.

What To Watch In The Data

FC jazz to Win notes

  • The last 10 meetings between these teams average 2.8 goals per game, suggesting a moderately open tempo.
  • However, FC jazz's lower over 2.5 goals rate indicates a tendency toward tighter matches, likely focusing on defensive organization and limiting TPV's scoring chances in this encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

TPV1.2
Avg goals scored
FC jazz1.6
TPV1.6
Avg goals conceded
FC jazz0.6
TPV40%
BTTS rate
FC jazz20%
TPV40%
Over 2.5 goals
FC jazz20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
The average goals in the last 10 meetings stand at 2.8, indicating moderately open games. However, FC jazz's lower over 2.5 goals rate of 20% and BTTS rate of 20% suggest a more cautious, defensive approach, likely limiting goal-scoring opportunities and favoring a controlled match tempo.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

TPV

LWLWD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
20 Sep 2026A Inter Turku II0-3
13 Sep 2026H KuPS Akatemia4-2
29 Aug 2026H PKKU0-2
22 Aug 2026A Inter Turku II1-0
15 Aug 2026A Tampere United1-1

FC jazz

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
19 Sep 2026H VJS0-2
11 Sep 2026H KPV-j3-0
29 Aug 2026H Inter Turku II2-0
23 Aug 2026A VJS1-1
15 Aug 2026A SalPa2-0
Market aligned with main pickFC jazz to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
FC jazz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
FC jazz have accumulated 10 points recently compared to TPV's 7, reflecting better momentum and consistency. Their ability to maintain defensive discipline while securing points indicates readiness to control this match and capitalize on TPV's defensive vulnerabilities.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7FC jazz362410684
9TPV27247611-11
FC jazz's 7th place and 36 points position them comfortably above TPV, who sit 9th with 27 points. This standing reflects FC jazz's stronger campaign and less pressure, allowing them to approach the match with and tactical clarity, which could influence the outcome.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC jazz to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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FC jazz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The current of 2.15 for FC jazz to win reflect a positive value opportunity, as the model estimates their chance at 61.7%, significantly higher than the implied 46.5%. This discrepancy suggests the market may underestimate FC jazz's defensive solidity and recent form, making this a price-sensitive selection worth considering.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2TPV wins
3Draws
5FC jazz wins
24 Jul 2026FC jazz v TPV4-0
02 May 2026TPV v FC jazz0-2
20 Aug 2021FC jazz v TPV2-1
03 Jun 2021TPV v FC jazz0-0
31 Oct 2020FC jazz v TPV6-0
28 Aug 2020FC jazz v TPV2-3
Market aligned with main pickFC jazz to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.8 goals, indicating moderately open games historically. While this supports the possibility of goals, FC jazz's recent defensive form suggests they may control the match tempo and limit TPV's scoring opportunities, slightly weakening the direct H2H goal-scoring trend.
Season team stats

Ykkönen

TPV24
Played
FC jazz24
TPV1.4
Avg goals for
FC jazz1.5
TPV1.9
Avg goals against
FC jazz1.3
TPV3
Clean sheets
FC jazz6
Market aligned with main pickFC jazz to WinBetUK guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
FC jazz Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over the season, FC jazz's defensive strength is evident in conceding only 0.6 goals per game, contrasting with TPV's 1.6. FC jazz's slightly higher scoring rate of 1.6 goals per match supports their ability to edge close contests, reinforcing their winning chances in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%TPV Over 2.5
20%FC jazz Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between these teams average 2.8 goals per game, suggesting a moderately open tempo. However, FC jazz's lower over 2.5 goals rate indicates a tendency toward tighter matches, likely focusing on defensive organization and limiting TPV's scoring chances in this encounter.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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