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Rops crestRops
v
SalPa crestSalPa

Ykkönen | Sat 26 Sep, 16:15

Rops v SalPa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 25 Sep 2026, 08:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ykkönen clash features SalPa visiting Rops in a tight contest with high stakes as both teams sit near the top of the table. SalPa currently holds second place with 42 points, just ahead of third-placed Rops on 41 points. SalPa's recent form shows strong attacking output, averaging 3.4 goals per game and securing 12 points in their last fixtures, while Rops have been less prolific with 1.4 goals per game and 5 recent points. The match promises an open, attacking battle with SalPa looking to capitalize on their momentum and secure a vital away win.

BT4Y best bet

SalPa to Win

  • SalPa leads the table with 42 points, just one ahead of Rops.
  • SalPa averages 3.4 goals per game, indicating strong attacking form.
  • Rops have a lower recent points tally of 5 compared to SalPa's 12.
  • Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates, with SalPa at 80% and Rops at 60%.
  • SalPa's BTTS rate is 80%, suggesting frequent goal exchanges in their matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors SalPa to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking efficiency. SalPa's high goal-scoring rate and points accumulation underpin this , while Rops' comparatively weaker recent output supports the away win prediction. The of 2.55 offer positive value given the implied chance of 39.2%, making SalPa a compelling selection. The data quality is solid for both teams, enhancing the reliability of this forecast.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
SalPa Recent Form12 points in last matches
Strong positive
SalPa Goals Per Game3.4
Strong positive
Rops Recent Form5 points in last matches
Negative
Market Odds Implied Chance39.2%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

SalPa's superior attacking form and recent points haul make them the tactical and statistical favorite to secure victory. Their ability to score frequently and maintain momentum away from home should give them the edge over Rops, who have struggled to match this level of output recently.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“SalPa's dynamic offense and consistent recent results position them strongly to claim all three points in this crucial fixture, especially given Rops' recent defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

SalPa to Win evidence

SalPa leads the table with 42 points, just one ahead of Rops.

SalPa averages 3.4 goals per game, indicating strong attacking form.

Rops have a lower recent points tally of 5 compared to SalPa's 12.

Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates, with SalPa at 80% and Rops at 60%.

What To Watch In The Data

SalPa to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3, reflecting a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters.
  • Combined with both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rates, this trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, favoring an attacking style and potential for goals beyond two and a half.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rops1.4
Avg goals scored
SalPa3.4
Rops2.2
Avg goals conceded
SalPa2.2
Rops60%
BTTS rate
SalPa80%
Rops60%
Over 2.5 goals
SalPa80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 75% · edge +0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 87%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Both teams have high Over 2.5 Goals rates, with SalPa at 80% and Rops at 60%, indicating an open game with multiple scoring chances. SalPa's strong attacking output and Rops' tendency to concede goals suggest both teams are likely to find the net, supporting a high-scoring encounter with BTTS very plausible.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSalPa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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SalPa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The current of 2.55 for SalPa to win reflect a significant value opportunity compared to the model's 70% win probability. This discrepancy suggests the market underestimates SalPa's chances, likely due to home advantage bias for Rops. The price is attractive and warrants a standard stake with potential for strong returns if SalPa's form continues.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rops

LDWLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
19 Sep 2026A PKKU1-3
12 Sep 2026H OLS1-1
29 Aug 2026H VJS2-0
22 Aug 2026A Tampere United0-4
15 Aug 2026A OLS3-3

SalPa

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 3L
19 Sep 2026H Tampere United6-4
12 Sep 2026H JJK4-3
29 Aug 2026A KuPS Akatemia3-1
22 Aug 2026H OLS4-1
15 Aug 2026H FC jazz0-2
Market aligned with main pickSalPa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
SalPa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
SalPa's recent form is markedly superior, with 12 points gained compared to Rops' 5, highlighting momentum and differences. SalPa's ability to score over three goals per game recently contrasts with Rops' lower scoring rate, suggesting SalPa enters this match with a sharper attacking edge and better overall performance.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Rops wins
2Draws
0SalPa wins
27 Jun 2026Rops v SalPa2-2
04 Apr 2026SalPa v Rops1-1
Market aligned with main pickSalPa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
The limited head-to-head sample of two matches shows an average of three goals per game, indicating a relatively open contest historically. While the small sample restricts strong conclusions, the goal trend aligns with both teams' attacking profiles and supports expectations of an engaging, high-scoring fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Ykkönen

Rops24
Played
SalPa24
Rops2
Avg goals for
SalPa2.1
Rops1.5
Avg goals against
SalPa1.8
Rops8
Clean sheets
SalPa3
Market aligned with main pickSalPa to WinBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Load more odds for this section
SalPa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over the season, SalPa's offensive numbers stand out with 3.4 goals per game, indicating a potent attack. Both teams concede 2.2 goals per game, but SalPa's superior scoring ability gives them a clear advantage. This season-long trend supports SalPa's likelihood to outscore Rops and secure the win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2SalPa422412669
3Rops4124118513
The tight league standings with SalPa second and Rops third separated by a single point add significant competitive pressure. SalPa's position motivates a win to maintain or extend their lead, while Rops face the challenge of defending home turf to close the gap. This context elevates the stakes and intensity of the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Rops Over 2.5
80%SalPa Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 3, reflecting a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters. Combined with both teams' recent Over 2.5 Goals rates, this trend suggests a fast-paced game with multiple scoring opportunities, favoring an attacking style and potential for goals beyond two and a half.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.