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Aston Villa crestAston Villa

Premier League | Sat 19 Sep, 12:30

Tottenham v Aston Villa Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tottenham face Aston Villa in Premier League on Sat 19 Sep, 12:30. Having already beaten Spurs twice this season and winning the last four head-to-heads, their dominance in this fixture is clear. Aston Villa have turned Villa Park into a fortress with four consecutive home wins.

BT4Y match pick

Tottenham Win

  • At 2, Tottenham Win implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Villa have won their last four home matches across all competitions, turning Villa Park into a decisive advantage at the business end of the.
  • Tottenham have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa.
  • Tottenham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.25 conceded per match, which helps the Tottenham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Tottenham sit 17 in the table, while Aston Villa sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Tottenham Win sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. Tottenham have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa. Villa have won their last four home matches across all competitions, turning Villa Park into a decisive advantage at the business end of the.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Neutral
Tottenham have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points.Visible data support
Positive
Tottenham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.25 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Villa have won their last four home matches across.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Tottenham Win is the preferred angle because villa have won their last four home matches across all competitions, turning Villa Park into a decisive advantage at the business end of the season. Tottenham have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa. Tottenham’s improved pressing under Roberto De Zerbi suggests they can find the net, but Villa’s superior quality and psychological edge make a repeat of their favourite scoreline against Spurs highly plausible.

Main risk

Tottenham’s improved pressing under Roberto De Zerbi suggests they can find the net, but Villa’s superior quality and psychological edge make a repeat of their favourite scoreline against Spurs highly plausible.

Key Data Signals

Tottenham Win evidence

Villa have won their last four home matches across all competitions, turning Villa Park into a decisive advantage.

Tottenham have the stronger recent points return, taking 2 points from the sample compared with 1 for Aston Villa.

Tottenham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.25 conceded per match, which helps the Tottenham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Tottenham sit 17 in the table, while Aston Villa sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Tottenham Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Tottenham6.75
    Avg corners for
    Aston Villa3.5
    Tottenham12.25
    Avg total corners
    Aston Villa6.75
    Tottenham1
    Avg yellow cards
    Aston Villa2
    Tottenham12.75
    Avg shots
    Aston Villa8.25
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
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    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Tottenham0
    Avg goals scored
    Aston Villa0.25
    Tottenham1.25
    Avg goals conceded
    Aston Villa1.75
    Tottenham0%
    BTTS rate
    Aston Villa25%
    Tottenham25%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Aston Villa50%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +7.3 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 68%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 65%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 25% for Tottenham and 50% for Aston Villa, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickTottenham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -2.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Tottenham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Tottenham to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Tottenham

    DDLL
    Last 50W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 2L
    12 Sep 2026H Everton0-0
    05 Sep 2026A Nottingham Forest0-0
    29 Aug 2026H Newcastle0-2
    22 Aug 2026A Brentford0-3

    Aston Villa

    LDLL
    Last 50W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 3L
    12 Sep 2026H Nottingham Forest1-2
    05 Sep 2026A Hull City0-0
    31 Aug 2026H Arsenal0-1
    23 Aug 2026A Brighton0-4
    Market aligned with main pickTottenham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -2.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Tottenham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Tottenham wins
    0Draws
    7Aston Villa wins
    03 May 2026Aston Villa v Tottenham1-2
    10 Jan 2026Tottenham v Aston Villa1-2
    19 Oct 2025Tottenham v Aston Villa1-2
    16 May 2025Aston Villa v Tottenham2-0
    09 Feb 2025Aston Villa v Tottenham2-1
    03 Nov 2024Tottenham v Aston Villa4-1
    Market aligned with main pickTottenham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -2.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 32%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Tottenham to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Tottenham4
    Played
    Aston Villa4
    Tottenham0
    Avg goals for
    Aston Villa0.3
    Tottenham1.3
    Avg goals against
    Aston Villa1.8
    Tottenham2
    Clean sheets
    Aston Villa1
    Market aligned with main pickTottenham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 48% vs implied 50% · edge -2.2 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Tottenham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.72
    Check odds @ 1.72
    Season data supports Tottenham to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    17Tottenham24022-5
    19Aston Villa14013-6
    Tottenham sit in position 17, while Aston Villa sit in position 19, so table pressure belongs in the Tottenham Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    25%Tottenham Over 2.5
    50%Aston Villa Over 2.5
    3.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Tottenham sit at 25% and Aston Villa sit at 50% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Tottenham v Aston Villa prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Betting context

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