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Ipswich crestIpswich

Premier League | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Everton v Ipswich Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Everton hosts Ipswich in a Premier League clash where Everton's unbeaten streak of six matches faces a stern test from Ipswich's potent attack. Everton's recent results show controlled resilience with three draws in four league games, while Ipswich, despite defensive frailties, have scored against top teams including Manchester United and Arsenal. Everton's leading scorer Thierno Barry, with four goals and high shot involvement, will challenge Ipswich's leaky defense that has conceded 15 goals without a clean sheet. The fixture promises an open contest with both sides capable of goals, setting the stage for a lively encounter at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Everton unbeaten in six matches across all competitions, showing defensive solidity.
  • Ipswich conceded 15 goals in six matches, yet scored seven against top opponents.
  • Thierno Barry leads Everton's attack with four goals and 24 shots in six games.
  • Both teams have shown scoring ability, supporting a match with at least three goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees a 54.8% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, supported by Everton's attacking volume led by Thierno Barry and Ipswich's defensive vulnerability, having conceded 2.5 goals per game on average. Ipswich's ability to score against strong teams adds to the likelihood of multiple goals. Despite Everton's modest scoring, the combination of Ipswich's leaky defense and attacking threat creates a strong case for a goal-rich match. The slightly short price suggests cautious staking is advisable, but the football context justifies the selection.

Everton's attacking volume14.75 shots per game, 5.25 shots on target
Positive
Ipswich's defensive record2.5 goals conceded per game, no clean sheets
Strong positive
Ipswich's scoring ability1.75 goals per game, 75% BTTS rate
Positive
Model chance vs implied odds54.8% model chance vs 57.9% implied chance
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively game with Everton's controlled approach meeting Ipswich's attacking ambition. Everton's defensive discipline combined with Ipswich's defensive struggles suggests a match where goals are likely, aligning well with the Over 2.5 Goals selection. Everton's ability to create chances through Thierno Barry and Ipswich's tendency to concede supports this outcome.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match attacking dynamics

“This fixture's attacking dynamics, with Everton's shot volume and Ipswich's defensive gaps, create a fertile ground for goals. The balance of control and ambition from both sides points to an open game with multiple scoring opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Everton unbeaten in six matches across all competitions, showing defensive solidity.

Ipswich conceded 15 goals in six matches, yet scored seven against top opponents.

Thierno Barry leads Everton's attack with four goals and 24 shots in six games.

Both teams have shown scoring ability, supporting a match with at least three goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last two meetings, the average goals scored were three per match, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend.
  • Recent matches for Ipswich show a 75% Over 2.5 rate, while Everton's is lower at 25%, indicating Ipswich's matches tend to be higher scoring.
  • This trend suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Everton1.25
Avg goals scored
Ipswich1.75
Everton0.75
Avg goals conceded
Ipswich2.5
Everton50%
BTTS rate
Ipswich75%
Everton25%
Over 2.5 goals
Ipswich75%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 58% · edge -3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have demonstrated scoring ability recently, with Ipswich scoring in 75% of matches and Everton in 50%. Ipswich's defensive frailty combined with Everton's moderate scoring supports a high likelihood of both teams contributing to the goal tally, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals expectation.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 58% · edge -3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Ipswich Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Ipswich to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced slightly short with an implied chance of 57.9% versus the model's 54.8% chance, indicating a cautious value scenario. The price reflects market in an open game given Ipswich's defensive issues and Everton's attacking potential, but the slight premium advises moderate stakes until further price movement.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Everton5.25
Avg corners for
Ipswich4
Everton9.75
Avg total corners
Ipswich9.5
Everton1.75
Avg yellow cards
Ipswich2
Everton14.75
Avg shots
Ipswich11.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 46% · edge +9.9 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 10.5 CornersBetUK guide price
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Everton averages 5.25 corners and 14.75 shots per game, indicating sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Ipswich's 3.33 corners and 10.33 shots per game suggest they can generate chances but less consistently. The card averages (1.75 for Everton, 2 for Ipswich) reflect a moderately physical contest likely to see fouls and set-piece opportunities fueling goal chances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Everton

DDDW
Last 51W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 0L
12 Sep 2026A Tottenham0-0
06 Sep 2026H Manchester United2-2
29 Aug 2026A Bournemouth1-1
22 Aug 2026H Crystal Palace2-0

Ipswich

WLLW
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
12 Sep 2026A Crystal Palace3-2
04 Sep 2026H Liverpool0-2
30 Aug 2026A Manchester United2-5
22 Aug 2026H Sunderland2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 51% · edge +13.1 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Ipswich Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Ipswich to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Everton Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Recent form data shows Everton scoring 1.25 goals per game with a 25% Over 2.5 rate, reflecting a more controlled scoring pattern. Ipswich scores 1.75 goals per game with a 75% Over 2.5 rate, indicating a higher frequency of high-scoring matches. Ipswich's defensive concessions at 2.5 goals per game contrast with Everton's 0.75, suggesting the fixture leans towards more goals overall.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Everton wins
1Draws
0Ipswich wins
03 May 2025Everton v Ipswich2-2
19 Oct 2024Ipswich v Everton0-2
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 58% · edge -3 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Ipswich to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBetfred guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The two most recent head-to-head matches have averaged three goals per game, indicating a history of open contests between Everton and Ipswich. However, the small sample size limits the strength of this evidence, so current form and tactical setups carry more weight in predicting goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Premier League

Everton4
Played
Ipswich4
Everton1.3
Avg goals for
Ipswich1.8
Everton0.8
Avg goals against
Ipswich2.5
Everton2
Clean sheets
Ipswich0
Best odds for this sectionIpswich Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 36% · edge +9.5 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Ipswich to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Everton to WinBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Everton Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season-long stats reveal Ipswich's defensive vulnerabilities with 15 goals conceded in six matches and no clean sheets, while Everton's defense is more stable. Both teams' attacking stats support a goal-rich game, with Ipswich's 1.75 goals per game and Everton's 1.25, aligning with the Over 2.5 Goals market selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9Everton641302
10Ipswich64202-3
Both teams sit close in the Premier League table with six points each, reflecting competitive parity. The standings suggest a balanced contest but do not fully capture Ipswich's defensive frailties or Everton's unbeaten streak, emphasizing the importance of tactical and form factors over table position for this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Everton Over 2.5
75%Ipswich Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last two meetings, the average goals scored were three per match, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals trend. Recent matches for Ipswich show a 75% Over 2.5 rate, while Everton's is lower at 25%, indicating Ipswich's matches tend to be higher scoring. This trend suggests a tempo and openness conducive to multiple goals in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Everton v Ipswich prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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