Newcastle

Hull City

Premier League | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

Newcastle v Hull City Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newcastle United return to St James' Park facing a challenging defensive situation after conceding 76 shots in their first four Premier League matches, averaging 1.6 goals conceded per game. Hull City arrive unbeaten with a potent attacking efficiency, scoring 1.3 goals per match despite limited possession. Both teams face injury setbacks, with Newcastle's midfield reshaped by absences and Hull integrating younger defenders. This clash promises open play and multiple goal-scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter with tactical imbalances on both sides.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Newcastle concede an average of 19 shots per game, increasing goal chances.
Hull scores efficiently despite only 36.8% possession recently.
Recent Newcastle matches average 3.1 combined goals, indicating open play.
Hull's defensive absences may create more scoring opportunities for Newcastle.
Both teams have key attacking players contributing consistently to goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 58.1% chance for over 2.5 goals, supported by Newcastle's high defensive workload and Hull's efficient attack despite low possession. Newcastle's average of 19 shots faced per game and Hull's ability to score with limited chances create a fertile environment for goals. However, the current imply a 63.6% chance, making the price short and the selection price-sensitive rather than a clear value bet. Reduced staking or waiting for better is advisable, with improvements in team news or line-ups potentially enhancing value.

Newcastle Defensive ExposureHigh (19 shots faced per game)

Strong positive

Hull Scoring EfficiencyHigh despite low possession

Strong positive

Model Chance vs MarketModel chance 58.1% vs Market implied 63.6%

Negative

Injury ImpactMidfield and defensive absences increase unpredictability

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively match with Newcastle's attacking intent meeting Hull's efficient counter-attacks. Newcastle's defensive vulnerabilities and Hull's ability to convert limited chances suggest multiple goals. This match is likely to see open play and goalmouth action, supporting a bet on over 2.5 goals.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal-scoring potential

“Newcastle's defensive workload and Hull's clinical finishing despite low possession create a compelling case for a high-scoring game. Tactical imbalances and key absences on both sides further open the door for goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Newcastle concede an average of 19 shots per game, increasing goal chances.

Hull scores efficiently despite only 36.8% possession recently.

Recent Newcastle matches average 3.1 combined goals, indicating open play.

Hull's defensive absences may create more scoring opportunities for Newcastle.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters.
This trend, combined with recent form and tactical setups, supports the likelihood of over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newcastle1.75

Avg goals scored

Hull City1.25

Newcastle2

Avg goals conceded

Hull City0.5

Newcastle75%

BTTS rate

Hull City25%

Newcastle75%

Over 2.5 goals

Hull City25%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 62% · edge -3.6 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 42%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Both teams have shown tendencies toward open play and goal-scoring. Newcastle concedes 1.6 goals per game while scoring 1.5, and Hull scores 1.3 goals per game despite low possession. Hull's recent 2-2 draw at Chelsea highlights their ability to score efficiently, supporting an over 2.5 goals outcome.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 62% · edge -3.6 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Hull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.57 with an implied probability of 63.6%, which is slightly shorter than the model's 58.1% chance. This indicates a price-sensitive scenario where the football read remains strong but the do not offer clear value. A price drift or improved team news would enhance the value proposition.

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Useful next reads

Premier League fixtures and predictions related match prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles latest football stats main football hub today's predictions best bets research acca fixture filtering

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Newcastle4.5

Avg corners for

Hull City2.5

Newcastle10.25

Avg total corners

Hull City9.25

Newcastle2.75

Avg yellow cards

Hull City3.25

Newcastle9.75

Avg shots

Hull City9.75

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Over 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 47%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 53%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Newcastle averages 9.75 shots per game with 3.25 on target, while Hull matches this shot volume with 3.75 on target. Newcastle's 4.5 corners per game and Hull's 2.5 reflect moderate set-piece opportunities. Both teams have moderate card averages, indicating a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to sustained attacking pressure.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newcastle

LDWD

Last 51W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 2D 1L

14 Sep 2026A Leeds1-4

05 Sep 2026H Bournemouth2-2

29 Aug 2026A Tottenham2-0

23 Aug 2026H Liverpool2-2

Hull City

DDWW

Last 52W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 2D 0L

12 Sep 2026A Chelsea2-2

05 Sep 2026H Aston Villa0-0

29 Aug 2026A Coventry1-0

22 Aug 2026H Manchester United2-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

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Hull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Newcastle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.35

Check odds @ 1.35

Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 52%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Newcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Newcastle's recent form shows 5 points from their last fixtures with a 75% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting open games with defensive vulnerabilities. Hull has 8 points and a lower 25% over 2.5 goals rate, but their efficient scoring and recent unbeaten run suggest they can contribute to a high-scoring match when facing Newcastle's defensive issues.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Newcastle wins

2Draws

1Hull City wins

27 Jul 2024Hull City v Newcastle0-2

29 Nov 2016Hull City v Newcastle1-1

31 Jan 2015Hull City v Newcastle0-3

20 Sep 2014Newcastle v Hull City2-2

01 Mar 2014Hull City v Newcastle1-4

21 Sep 2013Newcastle v Hull City2-3

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 62% · edge -3.6 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 25%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Newcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

The six previous meetings between Newcastle and Hull have averaged 3.5 goals per game, showing a pattern of open and attacking matches. This historical data aligns with current form and tactical factors, reinforcing the expectation of multiple goals in this contest.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier League

Newcastle4

Played

Hull City4

Newcastle1.8

Avg goals for

Hull City1.3

Newcastle2

Avg goals against

Hull City0.5

Newcastle1

Clean sheets

Hull City3

Best odds for this sectionHull City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts

3.1

Check odds @ 3.1

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Hull City to WinBet365 guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

Newcastle Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.35

Check odds @ 1.35

Newcastle to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Over the season, Newcastle concedes an average of 2 goals per game while scoring 1.75, indicating a high-scoring profile. Hull concedes only 0.5 goals per game and scores 1.25, showing defensive discipline paired with efficient attack. These contrasting profiles suggest a match with multiple goals, especially given Newcastle's defensive workload and Hull's ability to capitalize on chances.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
5	Hull City	8	4	2	2	0	3
12	Newcastle	5	4	1	2	1	-1

Hull City currently rank 4th with 8 points, reflecting a strong start despite low possession. Newcastle sits 12th with 5 points, highlighting defensive struggles. While standings provide background, the match's tactical and injury context is more decisive for goal expectations than league position alone.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%Newcastle Over 2.5

25%Hull City Over 2.5

3.5H2H avg goals

In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.5, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent form and tactical setups, supports the likelihood of over 2.5 goals in this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Newcastle v Hull City Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Newcastle

Hull City

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Football Stats Hub

Newcastle v Hull City Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Newcastle

Hull City

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