Toronto FC

Chicago Fire

Major League Soccer | Sun 06 Sep, 00:30

Toronto FC v Chicago Fire Stats

Data last updated: Sat 05 Sep 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toronto FC hosts Chicago Fire in a Major League Soccer clash where attacking intent is clear on both sides. Toronto FC has scored 1.8 goals per game recently, while Chicago Fire matches that output with the same average. Both teams have shown a strong tendency to be involved in high-scoring matches, with Chicago Fire boasting an 80% rate of games over 2.5 goals and Toronto FC a 60% rate. This fixture promises open play and goal-scoring opportunities, with both sides eager to climb the standings and maintain momentum in a competitive league phase.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

Both teams average 1.8 goals per game recently, indicating attacking form.
Chicago Fire has an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, showing a strong scoring trend.
Toronto FC has a 100% BTTS rate, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
Average shots on target per game are high for both teams, with Chicago Fire at 5.6 and Toronto FC at 4.2.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a value bet with a 50.1% chance, exceeding the implied market chance of 44.4%. Both teams have high recent scoring rates and BTTS frequencies, supporting a high-goal scenario. Chicago Fire's aggressive attacking stats, combined with Toronto FC's defensive concessions, create a fertile environment for multiple goals. The model at 56% reflects moderate certainty, with no data limitations noted, making this a solid pick for goal-hungry bettors.

Recent scoring ratesBoth teams average 1.8 goals per game

Strong positive

BTTS rates100% for both teams recently

Strong positive

Shots on targetHigh averages: Chicago Fire 5.6, Toronto FC 4.2

Positive

Model chance vs marketModel chance 50.1% vs implied 44.4%

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as both Toronto FC and Chicago Fire have shown strong offensive capabilities recently. The high average goals and shots on target suggest a lively game with multiple scoring chances, making Over 3.5 Goals a fitting selection for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and match tempo

“This matchup features two teams with potent offenses and less stable defenses, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The statistical indicators strongly favor a game with several goals, rewarding those backing Over 3.5 Goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 1.8 goals per game recently, indicating attacking form.

Chicago Fire has an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, showing a strong scoring trend.

Toronto FC has a 100% BTTS rate, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Average shots on target per game are high for both teams, with Chicago Fire at 5.6 and Toronto FC at 4.2.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a tendency for relatively open games.
Recent Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams further suggest a fast tempo and offensive focus, making a high-scoring encounter probable.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toronto FC3.75

Avg corners for

Chicago Fire4

Toronto FC8.5

Avg total corners

Chicago Fire8

Toronto FC1.5

Avg yellow cards

Chicago Fire1.8

Toronto FC10

Avg shots

Chicago Fire11.8

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +1.7 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

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Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 53%

Check odds @ 2

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 52%

Check odds @ 2

The teams generate a healthy number of shots and corners, with Chicago Fire averaging 11.8 shots and 4 corners per game, and Toronto FC 10.6 shots and 3.4 corners. The moderate card averages reflect a competitive but not overly aggressive match, suggesting sustained attacking pressure and set-piece opportunities.

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Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictions corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toronto FC1.8

Avg goals scored

Chicago Fire1.8

Toronto FC1.4

Avg goals conceded

Chicago Fire1.2

Toronto FC100%

BTTS rate

Chicago Fire100%

Toronto FC60%

Over 2.5 goals

Chicago Fire80%

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 44% · edge +5.7 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 36%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Both teams have a perfect recent BTTS rate at 100%, underscoring their defensive vulnerabilities and attacking strengths. Combined with their goal averages of 1.8 per game, this match is likely to see multiple goals from both sides, supporting the high total goals expectation.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Chicago Fire Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Chicago Fire to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 60%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 58%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Toronto FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with a 2.25 odd, reflecting a slight market undervaluation compared to the model's 50.1% chance. This suggests a small positive , encouraging a standard stake on this high-goal outcome given the attacking profiles of both teams.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toronto FC

DWDWD

Last 52W 3D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 5D 3L

30 Aug 2026H New York City FC1-1

23 Aug 2026A Inter Miami2-1

20 Aug 2026H Charlotte3-3

16 Aug 2026H New England Revolution2-1

01 Aug 2026A New York City FC1-1

Chicago Fire

DDWWW

Last 53W 2D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 106W 2D 2L

29 Aug 2026A Seattle Sounders2-2

23 Aug 2026A New York Red Bulls1-1

20 Aug 2026A Orlando City SC2-1

16 Aug 2026H Portland Timbers2-1

02 Aug 2026H Charlotte2-1

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 71% · edge +6.1 pts

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

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Chicago Fire Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

Chicago Fire to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 61%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Toronto FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Toronto FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.75

Check odds @ 3.75

Recent form data shows both teams scoring 1.8 goals per game with Toronto FC achieving Over 2.5 Goals in 60% of matches and Chicago Fire in 80%. This trend towards high-scoring games aligns well with the Over 3.5 Goals pick, reflecting sustained offensive momentum.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Toronto FC wins

3Draws

5Chicago Fire wins

24 May 2026Chicago Fire v Toronto FC2-1

05 Oct 2025Chicago Fire v Toronto FC2-2

15 Mar 2025Toronto FC v Chicago Fire1-2

29 Sep 2024Chicago Fire v Toronto FC1-1

16 Jun 2024Toronto FC v Chicago Fire1-4

16 Jul 2023Chicago Fire v Toronto FC1-0

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Chicago Fire to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Toronto FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.75

Check odds @ 3.75

The last ten meetings between Toronto FC and Chicago Fire have averaged 2.9 goals per game, showing a history of moderately high-scoring matches. While not overwhelmingly high, this supports the expectation of multiple goals, especially given current attacking forms.

Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Toronto FC22

Played

Chicago Fire21

Toronto FC1.5

Avg goals for

Chicago Fire1.9

Toronto FC1.7

Avg goals against

Chicago Fire1.3

Toronto FC3

Clean sheets

Chicago Fire6

Best odds for this sectionChicago Fire Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 57% · edge +2.8 pts

1.75

Check odds @ 1.75

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Chicago Fire to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Toronto FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

2.05

Check odds @ 2.05

Toronto FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

2.9

Check odds @ 2.9

Season-long statistics reveal both teams maintain strong attacking outputs but concede frequently, with Toronto FC allowing 1.4 goals and Chicago Fire 1.2 goals per game. This balance of scoring and conceding supports the likelihood of a high-scoring match exceeding 3.5 goals.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
3	Chicago Fire	37	21	11	4	6	11
10	Toronto FC	25	22	5	10	7	-6

Chicago Fire sits 3rd in the standings with 37 points, pushing for top positions, while Toronto FC is 10th with 25 points, seeking to improve their ranking. The competitive stakes for both sides encourage an attacking approach to secure vital points, increasing the chance of goals.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Toronto FC Over 2.5

80%Chicago Fire Over 2.5

2.9H2H avg goals

Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a tendency for relatively open games. Recent Over 2.5 Goals rates for both teams further suggest a fast tempo and offensive focus, making a high-scoring encounter probable.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Toronto FC v Chicago Fire Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Toronto FC

Chicago Fire

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Toronto FC v Chicago Fire Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Toronto FC

Chicago Fire

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