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FC Cincinnati crestFC Cincinnati
v
DC United crestDC United

Major League Soccer | Thu 22 Oct, 00:00

FC Cincinnati v DC United Stats

Data last updated: Wed 21 Oct 2026, 14:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer fixture features FC Cincinnati hosting DC United in a late-season clash with playoff implications. Both teams have struggled defensively, conceding over two goals per game on average, which suggests an open contest. DC United's recent form shows resilience, and their ability to avoid defeat away from home has been notable. Tactical setups hint at a balanced game with chances for both sides, but DC United's slightly better defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat could secure at least a draw in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

DC United or Draw

  • DC United or Draw offers strong value with an 18.6% positive edge over the implied .
  • Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating offensive intent.
  • FC Cincinnati concedes 2.2 goals per game, DC United concedes 2.8, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • DC United averages fewer shots but has effective attackers like T. Baribo with 16 goals this season.
  • Recent form shows both teams earning 4 points in their last matches, indicating competitive balance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors DC United or Draw with a 65.1% chance, reflecting DC United's ability to avoid defeat despite defensive frailties. The positive of 18.6% indicates the current underestimate DC United's resilience and counter-attacking threat. Both teams' high BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rates suggest an open game, but DC United's slightly better away form and key attackers like T. Baribo provide a solid foundation for at least a draw. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance36.5% model chance vs 23.1% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge36.5% model chance vs 23.1% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormBoth teams earned 4 points recently
Positive
Defensive RecordsHigh goals conceded by both sides
Neutral
Player ImpactT. Baribo's 16 goals boost DC United attack
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

DC United or Draw is a sensible selection given DC United's ability to avoid defeat away and the defensive vulnerabilities of both teams. DC United's attacking threat, led by T. Baribo, combined with their recent form, suggests they can secure at least a point in this open and competitive MLS fixture.

Main risk

The fixture status adds uncertainty, so prices should be checked again once the match details settle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and player impact

“DC United's resilience on the road and key attacking players like Baribo make the double chance a compelling option, especially against a defensively leaky FC Cincinnati side.”

Key Data Signals

DC United or Draw evidence

DC United or Draw offers strong value with an 18.6% positive edge over the implied .

Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, indicating offensive intent.

FC Cincinnati concedes 2.2 goals per game, DC United concedes 2.8, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities.

DC United averages fewer shots but has effective attackers like T. Baribo with 16 goals this season.

What To Watch In The Data

DC United or Draw notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9, with a strong trend towards Over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams' recent matches also show high Over 2.5 rates (80% for FC Cincinnati and 100% for DC United), indicating a fast-paced game with attacking intent and multiple scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Cincinnati1.6
Avg goals scored
DC United1.4
FC Cincinnati2.2
Avg goals conceded
DC United2.8
FC Cincinnati80%
BTTS rate
DC United80%
FC Cincinnati80%
Over 2.5 goals
DC United100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 75% · edge +0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Both teams have high BTTS rates at 80%, and FC Cincinnati has an 80% Over 2.5 goals rate compared to DC United's 100%, indicating a likely open game with multiple goals. The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 2.9, supporting the expectation of goals and both teams scoring in this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 75% · edge +0.8 pts
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
DC United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DC United Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 47%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The 36.5% for DC United or Draw sits against roughly 23.1% implied by the current price (+13.4 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Cincinnati

LLWLD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
18 Oct 2026H Columbus Crew0-2
15 Oct 2026H New England Revolution2-3
11 Oct 2026A Atlanta United FC3-1
27 Sep 2026A CF Montreal1-3
20 Sep 2026A Houston Dynamo2-2

DC United

LWLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
18 Oct 2026A Orlando City SC1-4
15 Oct 2026H New York Red Bulls2-1
11 Oct 2026A Inter Miami0-4
27 Sep 2026A Vancouver Whitecaps3-3
20 Sep 2026H Charlotte1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
DC United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DC United Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 47%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
FC Cincinnati to WinBetUK guide price · model 48%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Both FC Cincinnati and DC United have earned 4 points in their recent matches, reflecting competitive but inconsistent form. FC Cincinnati's defense has leaked goals, conceding 2.2 per game, while DC United concedes 2.8, but their ability to secure points away from home supports the double chance selection. The recent form data suggests a tight contest with DC United's resilience as a key factor.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%FC Cincinnati Over 2.5
100%DC United Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.9, with a strong trend towards Over 2.5 goals. Both teams' recent matches also show high Over 2.5 rates (80% for FC Cincinnati and 100% for DC United), indicating a fast-paced game with attacking intent and multiple scoring opportunities.

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