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ST Johnstone crestST Johnstone
v
Falkirk crestFalkirk

Premiership | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00

ST Johnstone v Falkirk Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

ST Johnstone host Falkirk in a Scottish Premiership clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. ST Johnstone have struggled to find the net consistently, scoring 0.8 goals per game, while conceding 1.2, indicating openness at the back. Falkirk have a slightly better scoring rate at 1 goal per game but also concede 1.2 on average. Recent form shows both sides have been involved in matches where both teams scored, with Falkirk especially prone to conceding and scoring. The fixture promises an open contest with chances at both ends, setting the stage for a BTTS scenario.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Falkirk have an 80% BTTS rate this season, ST Johnstone 60%.
  • Both teams concede over 1 goal per game on average, suggesting defensive frailties.
  • Average shots per game are balanced: ST Johnstone 10.2, Falkirk 10.4, indicating attacking activity.
  • Recent matches show both sides scoring, supporting a BTTS outcome.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, reflecting strong attacking and defensive patterns from both sides. Falkirk's high BTTS rate (80%) and ST Johnstone's 60% rate underline the likelihood of goals at both ends. Balanced shot volumes and defensive concessions support an open game. The at 1.75 offer positive value given the model's 76% probability. No data limitations affect , making this a solid pick based on attacking intent and defensive openness.

BTTS Rate Falkirk80%
Strong positive
BTTS Rate ST Johnstone60%
Positive
Goals Conceded Per Game Both1.2
Positive
Model Probability76%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to concede and score, making a Both Teams to Score bet tactically sound. Falkirk's attacking players, combined with ST Johnstone's defensive lapses, suggest goals at both ends. The data confirms this with high BTTS rates and balanced offensive metrics, supporting this selection as a strong football and statistical choice.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“The attacking patterns and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides make Both Teams to Score a compelling angle here, especially given Falkirk's consistent goal threat and ST Johnstone's openness at the back.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Falkirk have an 80% BTTS rate this season, ST Johnstone 60%.

Both teams concede over 1 goal per game on average, suggesting defensive frailties.

Average shots per game are balanced: ST Johnstone 10.2, Falkirk 10.4, indicating attacking activity.

Recent matches show both sides scoring, supporting a BTTS outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate is 40% for ST Johnstone and 60% for Falkirk, indicating a moderate trend towards higher scoring games, especially for Falkirk.
  • This suggests the match could feature multiple goals, supporting an open tempo and increased likelihood of BTTS, driven by attacking play and defensive gaps.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ST Johnstone

LWDLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 3L
09 Sep 2026H Celtic0-1
06 Sep 2026H Hibernian2-1
02 Sep 2026A Dundee1-1
29 Aug 2026A Heart Of Midlothian1-2
08 Aug 2026A ST Mirren0-1

Falkirk

WDLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
15 Sep 2026H Heart Of Midlothian2-1
05 Sep 2026A Dundee Utd1-1
02 Sep 2026H Rangers1-2
29 Aug 2026A Celtic1-2
09 Aug 2026A Motherwell0-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Falkirk to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Falkirk Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
ST Johnstone to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent form shows ST Johnstone with 4 points and Falkirk with 5 points from their last matches, with both teams involved in games featuring goals at both ends. ST Johnstone's BTTS rate of 60% and Falkirk's 80% in recent matches reinforce the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture, reflecting ongoing offensive and defensive dynamics.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7ST Johnstone76213-1
10Falkirk56123-3
ST Johnstone sits 7th with 7 points, while Falkirk is 10th with 5 points, indicating a mid-table clash with both teams seeking points to improve standing. The league position suggests motivation for an open game as both sides aim to climb, but standings alone do not dictate defensive solidity or scoring patterns here.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ST Johnstone0.8
Avg goals scored
Falkirk1
ST Johnstone1.2
Avg goals conceded
Falkirk1.2
ST Johnstone60%
BTTS rate
Falkirk80%
ST Johnstone40%
Over 2.5 goals
Falkirk60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have averaged over one goal conceded per game and maintain high BTTS percentages—80% for Falkirk and 60% for ST Johnstone. This trend, combined with balanced attacking metrics, suggests an open game where both sides find the net. The low average goals in H2H (1 goal over 2 matches) is less indicative given the small sample and current season form.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Falkirk to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Falkirk Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
ST Johnstone to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
The current of 1.75 for Both Teams to Score reflect a market-implied chance of 57.1%, which is notably lower than the model's 76% probability. This indicates clear value in the BTTS market, supported by both teams' attacking and defensive profiles. The price is attractive and justifies a standard stake without caution.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1ST Johnstone wins
0Draws
1Falkirk wins
08 Jul 2025ST Johnstone v Falkirk0-1
24 Jul 2018ST Johnstone v Falkirk1-0
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Falkirk to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
ST Johnstone to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
The head-to-head sample is limited to two matches with an average of only 1 goal per game, which weakly supports a low-scoring expectation. However, this small sample is less relevant compared to current season form and attacking trends, which favor a more open game with goals at both ends.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

ST Johnstone3.67
Avg corners for
Falkirk4
ST Johnstone9.33
Avg total corners
Falkirk11.33
ST Johnstone1
Avg yellow cards
Falkirk2
ST Johnstone11
Avg shots
Falkirk11.33
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 50% · edge +13.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams average around 3 corners per game, indicating moderate attacking pressure. Shot volumes are balanced with ST Johnstone averaging 10.2 shots and Falkirk 10.4, while shots on target are similar as well. Falkirk's higher yellow card average (2.8 vs 1.2) suggests a more aggressive approach, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities and sustained pressure.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premiership

ST Johnstone6
Played
Falkirk6
ST Johnstone1.3
Avg goals for
Falkirk0.8
ST Johnstone1.5
Avg goals against
Falkirk1.3
ST Johnstone0
Clean sheets
Falkirk1
Best odds for this sectionFalkirk to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
Falkirk Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
ST Johnstone to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Season-long data reveals both teams concede over one goal per game, with Falkirk slightly better offensively at 1 goal per game compared to ST Johnstone's 0.8. Both teams' BTTS rates are high, supporting the expectation of goals from both sides. These stats underline defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent consistent with a BTTS outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%ST Johnstone Over 2.5
60%Falkirk Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the Over 2.5 Goals rate is 40% for ST Johnstone and 60% for Falkirk, indicating a moderate trend towards higher scoring games, especially for Falkirk. This suggests the match could feature multiple goals, supporting an open tempo and increased likelihood of BTTS, driven by attacking play and defensive gaps.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

ST Johnstone v Falkirk prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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