Dundee
MotherwellPremiership | Sat 19 Sep, 15:00
Dundee v Motherwell Stats
Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:46 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Dundee face Motherwell at Dens Park in a crucial Premiership clash where Dundee are grappling with relegation pressure and recent goal-scoring struggles. Motherwell arrive in strong form, unbeaten in six with five wins, boasting one of the league's best defensive records with 18 clean sheets. Their possession-based style and clinical attack, led by Tawanda Maswanhise, contrast with Dundee's low scoring and defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises a tactical battle with Motherwell aiming to control possession and exploit Dundee's weaknesses, while Dundee will rely on aerial duels and set-pieces to create chances.
Motherwell to Win
- Price warning: current odds imply about 44%, above the 28% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
- Motherwell unbeaten in six matches, winning five, showing strong momentum.
- Motherwell have 18 clean sheets in 32 matches, highlighting defensive solidity.
- Dundee's main striker has failed to score in 16 consecutive league games, indicating attacking struggles.
- Motherwell average nearly 60% possession, controlling the game's tempo effectively.
Motherwell to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 44% while the model sits nearer 28% (-16.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Dundee Draw No Bet shows a +10.9 pts edge at 1.85.
Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive
Football case vs market price
Motherwell's superior form and tactical control underpin the selection despite the price being short compared to the model's 28.1% chance versus the 48.8% implied market chance. Their strong defensive record and attacking efficiency, led by Maswanhise, contrast sharply with Dundee's scoring drought and defensive frailties. The model flags this as a football-led pick rather than a pure value bet, recommending reduced stakes or waiting for price improvement. The absence of data limitations adds to this analysis.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
Motherwell's tactical discipline and recent unbeaten run make them the clear favourites to secure victory at Dens Park. Their defensive resilience and clinical finishing contrast with Dundee's scoring struggles and defensive lapses, suggesting Motherwell can control the match and capitalize on counter-attacks to secure the win.
Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.
Quote from Expert
BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome
“Motherwell's blend of possession control and sharp attacking players like Maswanhise creates a clear tactical advantage over a struggling Dundee side, making their win the most logical outcome.”
Key Data Signals
Motherwell to Win evidence
Motherwell unbeaten in six matches, winning five, showing strong momentum.
Motherwell have 18 clean sheets in 32 matches, highlighting defensive solidity.
Dundee's main striker has failed to score in 16 consecutive league games, indicating attacking struggles.
Motherwell average nearly 60% possession, controlling the game's tempo effectively.
What To Watch In The Data
Motherwell to Win notes
- Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.1, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
- However, current form and defensive records suggest this match may trend towards fewer goals, with Motherwell's defensive discipline likely to suppress Dundee's limited attacking threat.
Corners, cards and shots
Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.
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Useful next reads
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
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Player stats
Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.
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Market odds
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Dundee
Motherwell
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Head-to-head
Recent meetings and how much they still matter.
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Season team stats
Premiership
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League standings snapshot
Current table context.
| Pos | Team | Pts | P | W | D | L | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motherwell | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
| 6 | Dundee | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
Next step
Betting context
Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.
