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Sport Recife crestSport Recife
v
America Mineiro crestAmerica Mineiro

Serie B | Mon 24 Aug, 23:30

Sport Recife v America Mineiro Stats

Data last updated: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 07:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sport Recife hosts America Mineiro in a Serie B clash where home advantage and recent form sharply contrast. Sport Recife has collected 35 points and sits 8th, showing more stability and attacking threat, while America Mineiro languishes 19th with just 11 points and defensive struggles. Sport Recife's tactical setup emphasizes controlled possession and effective forward play, aiming to capitalize on America Mineiro's defensive vulnerabilities. The away side's recent low scoring and leaky defense suggest a challenging trip, making this fixture a critical opportunity for Sport Recife to consolidate their position in the promotion race.

BT4Y best bet

Sport Recife to Win

  • Sport Recife holds a 72.1% to win, showing strong value at 1.67 .
  • Sport Recife averages 11.67 shots per game with 3.33 on target, outshooting America Mineiro significantly.
  • America Mineiro concedes twice as many goals on average, highlighting defensive frailty.
  • Sport Recife's recent form yields 8 points compared to America Mineiro's 3, indicating momentum advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Sport Recife to win with a 72.1% chance, well above the implied market chance of 59.9%, indicating clear value. This is supported by Sport Recife's superior recent form, better offensive output with higher shots and shots on target, and a more robust defensive record. America Mineiro's struggles in both scoring and defense further strengthen the case. The stable data quality and absence of price warnings allow in this pick, with Sport Recife's home advantage and tactical discipline underpinning the model's preference.

Model Win Probability72.1%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance59.9%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsSport Recife 8 vs America Mineiro 3
Positive
Shots per GameSport Recife 11.67 vs America Mineiro 6.67
Positive
Goals Against per GameSport Recife 1.0 vs America Mineiro 2.0
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sport Recife's superior form and attacking volume give them a clear edge in this Serie B fixture. Their ability to create more chances and maintain defensive solidity contrasts with America Mineiro's struggles, making a home win the most probable outcome. Tactical control and momentum favor Sport Recife to secure all three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Sport Recife's consistent offensive pressure and defensive resilience make them the logical favorite here, especially given America Mineiro's recent defensive lapses. Their home form and ability to generate quality chances should see them through.”

Key Data Signals

Sport Recife to Win evidence

Sport Recife holds a 72.1% to win, showing strong value at 1.67 .

Sport Recife averages 11.67 shots per game with 3.33 on target, outshooting America Mineiro significantly.

America Mineiro concedes twice as many goals on average, highlighting defensive frailty.

Sport Recife's recent form yields 8 points compared to America Mineiro's 3, indicating momentum advantage.

What To Watch In The Data

Sport Recife to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, suggesting moderate scoring.
  • Sport Recife's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to America Mineiro's 80% indicates that while America Mineiro games tend to be higher scoring, Sport Recife's home matches are more controlled.
  • This trend suggests a match with goal opportunities but likely a disciplined home team managing the tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sport Recife1.2
Avg goals scored
America Mineiro0.8
Sport Recife1
Avg goals conceded
America Mineiro2
Sport Recife80%
BTTS rate
America Mineiro60%
Sport Recife40%
Over 2.5 goals
America Mineiro80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Goal trends indicate a moderate scoring environment with Sport Recife averaging 1.2 goals per game and America Mineiro 0.8. Both teams to score rates are high for Sport Recife at 80%, but America Mineiro's 60% suggests some defensive vulnerability. Over 2.5 goals occur in 40% of Sport Recife's matches versus 80% for America Mineiro, indicating potential for goals but with a cautious lean towards a controlled home win.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 61% · edge +11.5 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Sport Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The current of 1.67 for a Sport Recife win reflect a market implied chance of 59.9%, which is notably lower than the model's 72.1% probability. This discrepancy highlights a positive of 12.2%, suggesting the market underestimates Sport Recife's chances. The price is attractive without warning flags, making this a solid value bet based on form and statistical superiority.

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Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sport Recife4
Avg corners for
America Mineiro3.25
Sport Recife10.67
Avg total corners
America Mineiro10.75
Sport Recife1
Avg yellow cards
America Mineiro2.5
Sport Recife14
Avg shots
America Mineiro10.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 69% · edge -2.4 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Sport Recife averages fewer corners (3.67) than America Mineiro (4.33), but compensates with higher shot volume and accuracy, averaging 11.67 shots and 3.33 on target per game. America Mineiro's higher yellow card average (2 per game) versus Sport Recife's 0.67 reflects a more aggressive defensive approach, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities and disruptions in play.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sport Recife

LWWDD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
19 Aug 2026A Avai1-2
15 Aug 2026H Londrina2-1
08 Aug 2026A Vila Nova1-0
27 Jul 2026H Cuiaba1-1
23 Jul 2026A Goias1-1

America Mineiro

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 7L
21 Aug 2026A Novorizontino0-3
16 Aug 2026H Athletic Club1-3
08 Aug 2026A Botafogo SP1-2
26 Jul 2026H Goias1-0
21 Jul 2026A Avai1-2
Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 61% · edge +11.5 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Sport Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Sport Recife has accumulated 8 points recently, showcasing improved consistency and attacking output with 1.2 goals per game, compared to America Mineiro's 3 points and 0.8 goals per game. This form gap reflects Sport Recife's momentum and , which should translate into control and pressure in the upcoming match, favoring a home victory.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Sport Recife wins
3Draws
5America Mineiro wins
18 Apr 2026America Mineiro v Sport Recife0-0
29 Oct 2024America Mineiro v Sport Recife2-1
13 Jul 2024Sport Recife v America Mineiro1-1
11 Nov 2021Sport Recife v America Mineiro2-3
20 Jul 2021America Mineiro v Sport Recife0-1
21 Sep 2019Sport Recife v America Mineiro0-2
Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 61% · edge +11.5 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 10 previous meetings between these teams average 2.5 goals per game, reflecting a moderately open encounter historically. However, recent form and home advantage give Sport Recife a stronger edge, with past results providing background but less decisive influence given current season dynamics.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Season team stats

Serie B

Sport Recife23
Played
America Mineiro23
Sport Recife1.3
Avg goals for
America Mineiro0.7
Sport Recife1
Avg goals against
America Mineiro1.7
Sport Recife8
Clean sheets
America Mineiro3
Market aligned with main pickSport Recife to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 61% · edge +11.5 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
Sport Recife Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Over the season, Sport Recife demonstrates a balanced profile with 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, indicating solid defense and effective attack. America Mineiro's season stats reveal defensive weaknesses, conceding 2 goals per game, and a lower scoring rate of 0.8, underscoring their struggles and supporting the likelihood of a Sport Recife win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
8Sport Recife352381147
19America Mineiro11232516-23
Sport Recife's 8th place with 35 points positions them comfortably in the upper half, reflecting competitive stability and ambition for promotion. America Mineiro's 19th place and 11 points highlight their relegation battle and lack of form. This standings gap adds pressure on America Mineiro and motivation for Sport Recife to capitalize at home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sport Recife Over 2.5
80%America Mineiro Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.5, suggesting moderate scoring. Sport Recife's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to America Mineiro's 80% indicates that while America Mineiro games tend to be higher scoring, Sport Recife's home matches are more controlled. This trend suggests a match with goal opportunities but likely a disciplined home team managing the tempo.

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