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Operario-PR crestOperario-PR
v
Vila Nova crestVila Nova

Serie B | Sun 23 Aug, 22:00

Operario-PR v Vila Nova Stats

Data last updated: Sat 22 Aug 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B clash features Vila Nova visiting Operario-PR in a contest where Vila Nova's recent form and defensive solidity stand out. Vila Nova ranks third with 40 points, boasting a strong defensive record conceding just 0.8 goals per game, while Operario-PR sits seventh with 35 points and a leaky defense allowing 2.2 goals per match. Vila Nova's tactical discipline and ability to absorb pressure on the road contrast with Operario-PR's more open style, which has led to high-scoring games. Vila Nova's efficient attack and steadier defense set the stage for a confident away win attempt in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Vila Nova to Win

  • Vila Nova holds a 70% to win with strong defensive stats.
  • Operario-PR concedes over twice as many goals per game as Vila Nova.
  • Vila Nova ranks 3rd in the league, showing consistent form away from home.
  • Operario-PR's matches often exceed 2.5 goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Key Vila Nova attackers like Rafa Silva average high shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Vila Nova to win due to their superior defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game compared to Operario-PR's 2.2. Vila Nova's recent form includes 9 points gained recently, reflecting momentum and tactical stability. Despite Operario-PR's higher shot volume, Vila Nova's efficient finishing and defensive resilience create a strong chance for an away victory. The current offer positive value with a 45% edge, making Vila Nova a compelling pick without price caution. Player-level data supports Vila Nova's attacking threat led by Rafa Silva's high shot accuracy.

Defensive strengthVila Nova concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Operario-PR's 2.2
Strong positive
Recent formVila Nova earned 9 points recently vs Operario-PR's 3
Positive
Model chance vs odds70% chance vs 25% implied, 45% value edge
Strong positive
Player attacking statsRafa Silva averages 1.75 shots on target per 90
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Vila Nova's solid defensive record and recent momentum make them the tactical favorite to secure an away win. Their ability to limit chances and capitalize on opportunities contrasts with Operario-PR's defensive vulnerabilities, providing a clear edge in this Serie B encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and defensive strength

“Vila Nova's disciplined defense and efficient attack give them a clear tactical advantage over Operario-PR, whose defensive frailties have been exposed repeatedly this season.”

Key Data Signals

Vila Nova to Win evidence

Vila Nova holds a 70% to win with strong defensive stats.

Operario-PR concedes over twice as many goals per game as Vila Nova.

Vila Nova ranks 3rd in the league, showing consistent form away from home.

Operario-PR's matches often exceed 2.5 goals, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

What To Watch In The Data

Vila Nova to Win notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals, suggesting moderately open games.
  • Operario-PR's high over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Vila Nova's more conservative approach, indicating this fixture may see Vila Nova controlling the game tempo and limiting goal-scoring opportunities to secure a win.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Operario-PR6
Avg corners for
Vila Nova7
Operario-PR9.2
Avg total corners
Vila Nova13.2
Operario-PR1.4
Avg yellow cards
Vila Nova1.2
Operario-PR20.2
Avg shots
Vila Nova13.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.4 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Operario-PR averages more shots (20.2) and corners (6) than Vila Nova (13.6 shots, 7 corners), reflecting their attacking pressure. However, Vila Nova's higher shots on target per attempt and lower card count indicate efficient, disciplined play. Vila Nova's defensive organization likely limits Operario-PR's chances despite territorial pressure.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Operario-PR1.2
Avg goals scored
Vila Nova2
Operario-PR2.2
Avg goals conceded
Vila Nova0.8
Operario-PR80%
BTTS rate
Vila Nova20%
Operario-PR80%
Over 2.5 goals
Vila Nova40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 55% · edge +12.1 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Operario-PR's matches have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate and 80% BTTS rate, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Vila Nova's lower over 2.5 (40%) and BTTS (20%) rates suggest a more controlled approach. This contrast implies Vila Nova may limit Operario-PR's scoring while exploiting defensive gaps, favoring a Vila Nova win with moderate goal totals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The Vila Nova to Win market shows strong value as the model assigns a 70% chance against an implied 25% from of 4. This significant reflects Vila Nova's defensive solidity and recent form, making the price attractive without requiring caution or reduced stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Operario-PR

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
20 Aug 2026A Cuiaba0-1
16 Aug 2026H Avai1-2
07 Aug 2026H São Bernardo1-3
27 Jul 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-3
22 Jul 2026H Ponte Preta3-2

Vila Nova

WWLLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
20 Aug 2026H Ponte Preta6-0
15 Aug 2026A Atletico Goianiense2-0
08 Aug 2026H Sport Recife0-1
27 Jul 2026A CRB0-2
22 Jul 2026H Fortaleza EC2-1
Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Vila Nova's recent form is strong with 9 points gained, reflecting consistent performances and tactical cohesion. Operario-PR has collected only 3 points recently, struggling defensively and conceding more goals. This momentum difference favors Vila Nova's and ability to control the match tempo away from home.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Operario-PR wins
5Draws
5Vila Nova wins
18 Apr 2026Vila Nova v Operario-PR2-1
02 Nov 2025Operario-PR v Vila Nova2-2
11 Jul 2025Vila Nova v Operario-PR0-0
21 Aug 2024Operario-PR v Vila Nova2-3
04 May 2024Vila Nova v Operario-PR1-0
30 Sep 2022Operario-PR v Vila Nova1-1
Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.1 goals per game, indicating moderately competitive encounters. While the sample is balanced, Vila Nova's current form and defensive improvements provide a stronger edge than historical results alone suggest, making recent tactical and form data more relevant for this match.
Season team stats

Serie B

Operario-PR23
Played
Vila Nova23
Operario-PR1.3
Avg goals for
Vila Nova1.5
Operario-PR1.3
Avg goals against
Vila Nova1.1
Operario-PR8
Clean sheets
Vila Nova6
Market aligned with main pickVila Nova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 43% vs implied 28% · edge +15 pts
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
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Vila Nova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Season-long stats show Vila Nova with a robust defense conceding only 0.8 goals per game, underpinning their ability to secure results. Operario-PR's higher goals conceded (2.2) and over 2.5 goals rate (80%) reveal defensive weaknesses that Vila Nova can exploit. Vila Nova's attack, while less prolific, is efficient and supported by key players like Rafa Silva.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Vila Nova4023124710
7Operario-PR35231058-1
Vila Nova sits third in Serie B with 40 points, indicating strong league positioning and competitive consistency. Operario-PR is seventh with 35 points, showing a gap in quality and form. The standings reflect Vila Nova's greater stability and ability to secure points, especially important in away fixtures like this one.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Operario-PR Over 2.5
40%Vila Nova Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals, suggesting moderately open games. Operario-PR's high over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Vila Nova's more conservative approach, indicating this fixture may see Vila Nova controlling the game tempo and limiting goal-scoring opportunities to secure a win.

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