Athletic Club

Novorizontino

Serie B | Mon 24 Aug, 23:30

Athletic Club v Novorizontino Stats

Data last updated: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 07:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Athletic Club and Novorizontino meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown active attacking intent and territorial pressure, setting the stage for a corner-heavy encounter. Athletic Club averages 2.8 corners per game while Novorizontino boasts a significantly higher 8.8, reflecting their aggressive wing play and frequent deliveries into the box. Both sides have decent recent form, with Athletic Club scoring 1.6 goals per game and Novorizontino 1.4, suggesting open play and attacking transitions that often lead to set-piece opportunities. This fixture promises sustained pressure and multiple corner chances as both teams seek to assert control early and capitalize on wide areas.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

Novorizontino averages 8.8 corners per game, a strong attacking indicator.
Athletic Club contributes 2.8 corners per game, adding to total corner count.
Both teams play with attacking intent, increasing set-piece chances.
Recent matches show sustained pressure and wing play from Novorizontino.
for Over 9.5 Corners is a confident 69%, above market .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 9.5 Corners as a value bet with a 69% chance, well above the implied 55.6% from current . Novorizontino's high corner average (8.8) combined with Athletic Club's steady contribution (2.8) creates a strong statistical foundation for this market. Both teams' attacking styles and recent form support frequent wide attacks and set-piece situations. is high at 84%, reflecting consistent corner generation patterns. No price warnings apply, making this a solid corner market selection for standard stakes.

Novorizontino corner average8.8 per game

Strong positive

Athletic Club corner average2.8 per game

Positive

Model chance vs implied chance69% vs 55.6%

Strong positive

Confidence level84%

Strong positive

Recent attacking formBoth teams score 1.4+ goals per game

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with sustained wing pressure and multiple attacking phases from both sides, especially Novorizontino, who generate a high volume of corners. Athletic Club's contribution adds to the total, making Over 9.5 Corners a plausible outcome. The data and tactical context align well, suggesting this corner market is a strong tactical and statistical play.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corner market rationale

“Novorizontino's control in corners combined with Athletic Club's steady set-piece frequency makes Over 9.5 Corners a compelling market. The teams' styles encourage wide play and repeated deliveries, which should translate into a high corner count.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Novorizontino averages 8.8 corners per game, a strong attacking indicator.

Athletic Club contributes 2.8 corners per game, adding to total corner count.

Both teams play with attacking intent, increasing set-piece chances.

Recent matches show sustained pressure and wing play from Novorizontino.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately open games.
Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting a balanced tempo with periods of attacking intensity.
This trend supports a match environment conducive to multiple attacking phases and set-piece situations, which often translate into a higher corner count.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Athletic Club1.6

Avg goals scored

Novorizontino1.4

Athletic Club1

Avg goals conceded

Novorizontino0.6

Athletic Club60%

BTTS rate

Novorizontino20%

Athletic Club40%

Over 2.5 goals

Novorizontino40%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +6.7 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Both teams average over 1.4 goals per game, with Athletic Club scoring 1.6 and Novorizontino 1.4, indicating open play and attacking intent. However, both teams have a moderate 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate and differing BTTS tendencies (Athletic Club 60%, Novorizontino 20%), suggesting some matches are more cagey. This mix points to varied goal outcomes but consistent attacking phases that often lead to corners.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Athletic Club

LWWDW

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 3D 3L

20 Aug 2026H CRB0-2

16 Aug 2026A America Mineiro3-1

09 Aug 2026H Criciuma2-0

28 Jul 2026A Ponte Preta1-1

23 Jul 2026H São Bernardo2-1

Novorizontino

WDLWL

Last 52W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 105W 1D 4L

21 Aug 2026H America Mineiro3-0

16 Aug 2026A CRB0-0

09 Aug 2026H Juventude0-1

26 Jul 2026A Londrina4-1

21 Jul 2026H Criciuma0-1

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 67% · edge +14.7 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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Athletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 3

Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 55%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

Check odds @ 3

Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%

2.6

Check odds @ 2.6

Recent form data shows Athletic Club with 10 points and Novorizontino with 7 in their last matches, both maintaining offensive output above 1.4 goals per game. Their Over 2.5 Goals rate stands at 40%, indicating moderately open games. Novorizontino's high corner count aligns with their recent attacking phases, while Athletic Club's steady corner contribution supports the likelihood of a corner-rich match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
5	Novorizontino	37	23	10	7	6	15
9	Athletic Club	34	23	8	10	5	3

Novorizontino sits 4th in Serie B with 37 points, reflecting strong form and offensive capability, while Athletic Club is 9th with 34 points. Although standings provide background, the corner market is more influenced by playing style and attacking patterns than table position. Both teams' competitive stakes suggest they will seek to impose themselves, likely maintaining the attacking tempo that produces corners.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 69% · edge +5.6 pts

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

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Athletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 3

Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

Check odds @ 2

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

Check odds @ 3

The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively with implying a 55.6% chance, while the model estimates a 69% probability, indicating clear value. This difference suggests the market underestimates the frequency of corners, driven by Novorizontino's aggressive wing play and Athletic Club's consistent corner generation. The level at 84% supports this positive value angle, making the market a strong candidate for standard stake backing.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Athletic Club2.8

Avg corners for

Novorizontino8.8

Athletic Club8

Avg total corners

Novorizontino14

Athletic Club2.4

Avg yellow cards

Novorizontino2.2

Athletic Club11.2

Avg shots

Novorizontino13.8

Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 61%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Novorizontino's high corner average (8.8) reflects their territorial control and frequent wing attacks, while Athletic Club's 2.8 corners add to the total. Both teams maintain moderate fouling rates with around 2.2-2.4 yellow cards per game, indicating a competitive but not overly aggressive match. Shot volumes are healthy, with Novorizontino averaging 13.8 shots and Athletic Club 11.2, supporting sustained pressure and set-piece chances.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Athletic Club wins

0Draws

3Novorizontino wins

20 Apr 2026Novorizontino v Athletic Club2-1

19 Sep 2025Novorizontino v Athletic Club1-0

18 May 2025Athletic Club v Novorizontino0-2

Best odds for this sectionAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%

Check odds @ 2

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%

2.4

Check odds @ 2.4

DrawBetUK guide price · model 26%

Check odds @ 3

Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%

2.6

Check odds @ 2.6

The three recent meetings between Athletic Club and Novorizontino have averaged 2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While the sample is small, it suggests a balanced matchup without extreme defensive control. This background supports the expectation of sustained attacking phases that can generate corners, though the head-to-head data alone is not decisive for corner markets.

Season team stats

Serie B

Athletic Club23

Played

Novorizontino0

Athletic Club1

Avg goals for

Novorizontino-

Athletic Club0.9

Avg goals against

Novorizontino-

Athletic Club6

Clean sheets

Novorizontino-

Best odds for this sectionAthletic Club to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 3

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Athletic Club Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%

1.7

Check odds @ 1.7

Novorizontino Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Novorizontino to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%

2.6

Check odds @ 2.6

Season-long corner stats reveal Novorizontino's strong tendency to earn corners, averaging 8.8 per game, a figure well above league norms. Athletic Club's 2.8 corners per game add to the total, reflecting a balanced but less dominant wing presence. These season stats underpin the model's in Over 9.5 Corners, as both teams consistently generate set-piece opportunities through sustained pressure and wide play.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Athletic Club Over 2.5

40%Novorizontino Over 2.5

2H2H avg goals

In the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately open games. Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, suggesting a balanced tempo with periods of attacking intensity. This trend supports a match environment conducive to multiple attacking phases and set-piece situations, which often translate into a higher corner count.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Athletic Club v Novorizontino Stats

Match Report

Over 9.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Athletic Club

Novorizontino

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Athletic Club v Novorizontino Stats

Match Report

Over 9.5 Corners

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Athletic Club

Novorizontino

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