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Sparta Rotterdam crestSparta Rotterdam
v
Heerenveen crestHeerenveen

Eredivisie | Sat 19 Sep, 17:45

Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 21:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen meet in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides. Sparta Rotterdam has scored in every recent match, showing a high over 2.5 goals rate, while Heerenveen also contributes goals but concedes slightly fewer. Both teams sit mid-table with similar points, adding competitive edge but no relegation pressure. The game promises open play with both sides eager to push forward, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring encounter underpinned by their offensive tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Sparta Rotterdam has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.
  • Heerenveen averages 1.2 goals scored and concedes 1.8 per game.
  • Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 80%, indicating frequent goals at both ends.
  • Sparta Rotterdam averages 14.2 shots per game, Heerenveen 16.4, showing attacking volume.
  • for Over 3.5 Goals is nearly 50%, with positive value indicated at 2.2 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 3.5 Goals as a compelling pick due to Sparta Rotterdam's perfect recent record of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and their high attacking output, combined with Heerenveen's moderate scoring and defensive openness. Both teams' shot volumes and BTTS rates support a game with multiple goals. The offer a small positive , making this a standard stake opportunity. No data limitations affect , reinforcing the pick's robustness.

Sparta Rotterdam Over 2.5 Rate100% recent matches
Strong positive
Heerenveen Goals For/Against1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game
Positive
Combined BTTS Rate80%
Positive
Shot VolumeSparta 14.2, Heerenveen 16.4 per game
Positive
Model Confidence54% chance, 4.3% value edge
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both Sparta Rotterdam and Heerenveen show tendencies to concede and score regularly. Sparta Rotterdam's perfect recent over 2.5 goals record combined with Heerenveen's offensive activity suggests a lively match with multiple goals. This pick aligns with the teams' current form and attacking profiles, making Over 3.5 Goals a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking style and goal potential

“Sparta Rotterdam's aggressive attacking style and Heerenveen's willingness to engage offensively set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The data strongly supports Over 3.5 Goals as both sides create and concede chances consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Sparta Rotterdam has a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches.

Heerenveen averages 1.2 goals scored and concedes 1.8 per game.

Both teams have a combined BTTS rate of 80%, indicating frequent goals at both ends.

Sparta Rotterdam averages 14.2 shots per game, Heerenveen 16.4, showing attacking volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold.
  • However, recent form and attacking metrics suggest an upward trend in goal tempo for this fixture, with both teams showing increased offensive output in their latest matches, indicating a potential for more goals than historical averages.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sparta Rotterdam2
Avg goals scored
Heerenveen1.2
Sparta Rotterdam2.4
Avg goals conceded
Heerenveen1.8
Sparta Rotterdam100%
BTTS rate
Heerenveen60%
Sparta Rotterdam100%
Over 2.5 goals
Heerenveen60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 48% · edge +2.2 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals and BTTS outcomes recently. Sparta Rotterdam's 100% over 2.5 goals rate and 100% BTTS rate highlight their open games, while Heerenveen's 60% rates indicate frequent goal involvement. This combination points to a match likely featuring multiple goals and both teams scoring.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSparta Rotterdam Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 51% · edge +12.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Sparta Rotterdam to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Heerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced at 2.2 with an implied chance slightly below the model's 49.8% estimate, offering a small positive . This suggests the market slightly underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making the bet attractive at current without requiring caution for price sensitivity.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Sparta Rotterdam6.8
Avg corners for
Heerenveen5.2
Sparta Rotterdam13.4
Avg total corners
Heerenveen10.8
Sparta Rotterdam0.6
Avg yellow cards
Heerenveen1
Sparta Rotterdam14.2
Avg shots
Heerenveen16.4
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 71% · edge -2.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The attacking volume is supported by shot averages of 14.2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 16.4 for Heerenveen, with shots on target close to six per game each. Corner counts are moderate, with Sparta averaging 6.8 and Heerenveen 5.2, reflecting sustained pressure and attacking intent. Discipline is relatively low, suggesting free-flowing play with fewer interruptions.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sparta Rotterdam

LDLDW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 3L
13 Sep 2026A PSV Eindhoven1-4
04 Sep 2026H PEC Zwolle2-2
29 Aug 2026A Excelsior1-2
22 Aug 2026H Utrecht3-3
14 Aug 2026A Telstar3-1

Heerenveen

DLDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 2L
13 Sep 2026H Telstar0-0
06 Sep 2026H AZ Alkmaar2-3
30 Aug 2026A Willem II2-2
22 Aug 2026H PEC Zwolle0-2
16 Aug 2026A Ajax2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 81% vs implied 69% · edge +11.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Sparta Rotterdam Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Sparta Rotterdam to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Heerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Heerenveen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Sparta Rotterdam's recent form is marked by a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate and 5 points from recent matches, indicating matches with multiple goals. Heerenveen's form shows a 60% over 2.5 rate and 3 points, reflecting a slightly lower but still significant tendency for higher-scoring games. Both teams' recent output supports the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Sparta Rotterdam wins
3Draws
3Heerenveen wins
28 Feb 2026Heerenveen v Sparta Rotterdam2-1
14 Dec 2025Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen0-3
12 Apr 2025Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen3-1
26 Oct 2024Heerenveen v Sparta Rotterdam2-0
19 May 2024Sparta Rotterdam v Heerenveen2-1
27 Aug 2023Heerenveen v Sparta Rotterdam1-3
Best odds for this sectionSparta Rotterdam to WinBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 41% · edge +13.6 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Heerenveen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The head-to-head sample of 10 matches shows an average of 2.5 goals per game, which is moderate but slightly below the Over 3.5 benchmark. While this historical data provides background, current attacking form and team tendencies suggest a more open game this time, making the head-to-head less decisive for the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eredivisie

Sparta Rotterdam7
Played
Heerenveen7
Sparta Rotterdam1.4
Avg goals for
Heerenveen1.6
Sparta Rotterdam2.4
Avg goals against
Heerenveen1.3
Sparta Rotterdam0
Clean sheets
Heerenveen3
Best odds for this sectionSparta Rotterdam Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 51% · edge +12.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Sparta Rotterdam to WinBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Heerenveen Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Heerenveen to WinBetMGM guide price · model 30%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Season-long data shows Sparta Rotterdam scoring 2 goals per game and conceding 2.4, indicating open matches with defensive vulnerabilities. Heerenveen scores 1.2 and concedes 1.8 per game, also suggesting matches with goal opportunities. These season stats align with a high-scoring game scenario, reinforcing the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
10Heerenveen972322
12Sparta Rotterdam57124-7
Both teams occupy mid-table positions with similar points, reducing pressure for defensive caution. This league standing context suggests a balanced contest where both sides can afford to play openly, increasing the likelihood of goals and supporting the Over 3.5 Goals market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Sparta Rotterdam Over 2.5
60%Heerenveen Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.5, slightly below the Over 3.5 threshold. However, recent form and attacking metrics suggest an upward trend in goal tempo for this fixture, with both teams showing increased offensive output in their latest matches, indicating a potential for more goals than historical averages.

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